As so often it appears to be battleground UK with Meto sat firmly on the fence and irrespective of the output that we see they will continue to do so for at least another 4/5 days unless their own data provides a very strong signal for anything more than a cold snap.

Nevertheless, it's still an enjoyable rollercoaster ride when the possibility of snow is around.

and introduced 'harder to shift' at the end.  It's a slow acknowledgement.  These text forecasts are written by quasi-politicians! 

2m temp charts from GEM should be available from the 12z run today. This was generated from the 0z run today.

I agree with Gary (Dr. Gary L in fact ) about 60% of the ECM ensembles have the cold spell still in place at 22 January. Much uncertainty by then of course but a prolonged cold spell is more likely than not (just)

Dont think this place would be the same Brian  without wetter and Meteociel   with all due respect Brian.  I and many appreciated the very hard work you do behind the scenes but both W and M I regard as the gold star charts to use and members have used those for years.

I am only saying how I honestly feel as that would be hard for me to not use those sites Brian  and I do love this forum to bits 

Tim

Still, I agree there is a gradual building emphasis toward a cold event and certainly lasting more than 2-3 days. 

Obviously the signals for a toppler have waned over the past 48 hours with expectations remaining low on that outcome.

the cold air is still taking hold of the country, it looks to get colder each subsequent day from there.

Could anyone show me an example of a "powerful Azores low" spoiling things? I'm not being argumentative; I'm genuinely puzzled how a powerful Azores high can spoil winter for the UK year after year, yet its exact opposite can evidently do the same.

i think it was for the people on the southern coast who when reveiwing the charts this morning noticed the Azore low get its skates on and smash into the UK.  Rather than just sit out in the atlantic. 

This would bring a mahoosive snow storm to the UK - AKin to the Noreasters seen in the US.  It was also have a mild sector which would make southern counties get rain.

Lol I think that was for today!!!

Something like this then?

Well, I'd have no grumbles with that chart going forward, even if it meant a very wet and windy day IMBY right there and then.

GFSP6Z

If we keep seeing stuff like this, then perhaps we can expect a memorable cold spell.

Note the 'double' high over the atlantic. Even if the first ridge collapses there is a fresh bout of WAA ready to create a secondary even stronger block. 

The GFSP is not actually great for sustained cold - the high collapses over us by 240 hours, and then there is a brief northerly before a low smashes through Iceland and resets to zonality. But there would be plenty of fun and games before that.

I'm prepared to put my neck on the line and say that this will not be a memorable severe spell for anybody south of the M4. Cold? Yes. Snow? Maybe for some. But lots of rain mixed in and no ice days.

We need a true easterly down here - something we've been chasing for the last 11 years. 

In reply to Justin, it is still too early to predict where or not snow may fall, for folks in the South it is high risk, but an LP coming in from the SW, stalling and hitting the cold air could be our best chance of a good dumping, that said considering my location a NE delivered for me a couple of years ago, one of those disturbances that cropped up at short notice.

Also for those in the Thames Valley, remember that streamer a few years back that ground the SE to a halt?

In summary, all to play for and as many have said, let's get the cold in first.

aye it lined up with the thames valley pretty much perfectly.  London got a foot of snow in a day - 2008 that was wasnt it?

Phasing danger at T144 - Azores Low keep your nose in or this could go badly awry.

Please tell me it wasn't that long ago 

Foot of snow on 2nd Feb 2009 from a Thames Streamer and then a similar amount from a Thames Streamer on 30th Nov 2010. The cold and snow in early Jan 2010 was from a low pressure in the channel, or similar, but not a streamer..............