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Originally Posted by: Jayni C Go to Quoted Post
I have got a horrible sinking feeling for anyone looking for cold and snow south of Birmingham . . . I expect downgrades over the next few runs :(

Doesn't say that there won't be cold or snow but expect the Downgrades which is to be expected as the norm 

Into FI cracking chart

That looks like a very snowy chart for the s/e if you ask me

IMBY someone saying they have a "horrible sinking feeling " means things aren't going to go a certain way, hence my comment

Let's just agree to disagree eh

The current failed cold spell ended up too far east.  This potential one is too far west.  Getting cold uppers into the southern UK in "winter" has been  increasingly difficult since March 2013.

ECM is superb out to +192... Very cold, very snowy, and high remaining in excellent position for continuation... The best Op run put to +192 to date in my view, and that's saying something based on what's been on offer. 😊

Chilly for the UK

ECM is the better option for sustained cold. Better for the high to sink than retreat north.

cold and not dry lovely run

ECM looks best tonight.

Good job it's the most accurate model ;-)

ECM very solid with the blocking, excellent run.

Looking like jam tomorrow as the deeper cold is again on Fantasy Island.  When the 216 charts are at 96 hours its time to get excited.  Until then, more runs are needed.

To be positive though, there is good WAA up the west coast of Greenland here on day 8:

We lose the snow risk later but assuming there is already snow on the ground, its going to be pipe freezing stuff. Plumbers will be happy

I don't understand how you can say that

One of the "disappointments" of the Feb 2009 spell and even much of Dec 2010 down here was the lack of clear skies at night, so we never got those extreme minima that we saw in Scotland and NI.

 a little slider in action on ecm  later on generally cold or very cold with general snow at times for most uk.

I was just thinking the same thing. Not an isobar in sight over the whole of mainland Britain at 216hrs.

(Well until you posted the high-res chart!  )

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016010712/ECH1-240.GIF?07-0

All we need are some features to spin up from the continent

Brilliant run from ECM and it really scores over GFS by lowering heights to our south, with the Azores LP gradually meandering into Spain.

Peach of a run - best of the evening - pity that we have to wait so many days to see how much of it comes to fruition.

I think from there the displaced Azores low would head northeast and potentially bump into the cold air somewhere over Hampshire... 

and there she goes best run for many years imho but im nervous its just unreal

😊 rarrp