Looking at the charts.  We are too much caught up in a cylonic circulation.  There is no strong feed of deep cold.  If its snow at low levels in urban areas in the southern half of the UK  that people are after, I venture to suggest, this potential spell is not for them.  Conversely, if its colder weather with some wintry precipitation and "aesthetic snowfall" then great.  Personally I welcome the reversion away from the mild madness, but at present I see a colder spell but not a notable one as currently modelled.  I will change my views as the charts change and the pattern change to colder conditions comes into the reliable.

Thats just an insanely good run from ecm PL. Doesn't get much better than that few would miss out if that happened. BANK!

 ecm just leaving by the back door

I'm not seeing it... yesterday's 12Z was far better in every respect - much greater depth of cold, better orientation, etc etc..

Looks like this end of the cold spell is increasingly secure; the longevity & severity is still variable according to the models & the GFS 12 ruins it a bit but the ECM is having none of that.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/240_mslp500.png?cb=794

So you are saying the ECM was just run of the mill ???

Excellent charts tonight, and a lot to be optimistic about.

However, the cold air (below -5C at 850 hPa) does not arrive until about t+120 (at the earliest) on both GFS and ECM. That trough needs resolving and we want to see the cold air being brought forward to t+96 tomorrow.. That will make me feel far more confident that this is a definite goer. 

This is fine detail though, and the overall pattern is mightily impressive. 

nope I had miss read the original post as saying deep cold uppers over the South... And your chart linked didn't have deep cold. I quickly realised my mistake and attempted to delete the post but couldn't figure out how, and i couldn't leave the post blank 😉 

This run is much more likely than deep cold and looks very snowy for many from 144h onwards and surely that's what most of us want.

Indeed, even if it doesn't penetrate the bowers of balmy Hampshire, although even here there's some white stuff promised.

You wont get up hockerhill if that comes off let alone the multistorey  

no insanely cold uppers, but cold enough for snow, with repeated disturbances giving that snow widely... then cold intensifies at ground level from day 9 as pattern slackens.... If it comes off there would be some extreme cold over widespread snowfields... With the prospect of the cold continuing.

Thats how I see it 

It might have been better, but that doesn't change the fact that tonight's run is absolutely stunning. 

To be frank I'm gobsmacked we are faced with such a notable change after such a horrible setup for so long throughout December. 

The fine detail is going to change frequently over the next few days, what's important is the overall pattern remains the same... In that respect tonight's charts are epic! 

Great run from the 12z ECM, Azores low remains rooted and the cold air floods south, if this outcome comes to fruition then we can start discussing snow potential. At later time frames, instabilities in a flow are not picked up on so snow may appear at short notice. No point in discussing the fine details re snow amounts yet.

The key point to look out for is the cold air flooding south of the UK, a weaker Euro high is the key to this. It looks certain SLP is going to rise over Greenland, just need the jigsaw to fall into place down south.

The ECM alleviates my doubts a little especially with the UKMO chart also looking good at T+144, a long cold spell would be inevitable given those charts. 

Hopefully the pub run will deliver more of the same and keep the Azores low to our south .

Indeed, I was just looking back at the past couple of model threads and it's less than a week since some people were talking about giving up model watching for a fortnight! 

Yes, I wouldn't like to ignore GFS and much of the GEFS suite, but it has had a tendency to over develop lows before, which as previously stated helps build to Euro high northward with consequential effect of steering the low further north. More runs, as ever, are needed.

Where is Steve from kent his missing these great charts his our lucky omen by keeping away perhaps his at the controls as yd is sick in bed 

Another day and hurdle passed the big question mark is will those in more Southern counties be under milder air for the most of next week due that LP to the SW moving to far NE, or will it push W/E. 

Japs finish on a sexy note

How long will it take me to drive in a jallopy from Hampshire to Buxton?

Almost identical to ECM at t192:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016010712/ECH1-216.GIF?07-0

Hi Joe

As I said last night, if some of the output we're now being presented with does verify, my guess is that we'd be in with a chance of seeing a similar drop in CET from the December value to the drop there was from Jan to Feb 1983 (5C), and from Dec 1986 to Jan 1987 (5.4C). I don't know for certain but I don't think there's been such a big drop in a monthly CET value from one winter month to the next since the 86/87 winter.

I wonder what the chances are of everything shifting E.... or for classic Lows to spin out of Greenland into Scandi....

I'll grab my coat.....