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GFS 6z. 120 hours.
1030mb over Spain. -5c 850Hpa isotherm is struggling to get into Scotland.
Twas ever thus Tally- I for one really thought next week was becoming nailed for cold, now it looks wet and miserable for many a folk.
Bit worrying that the Mid atlantic ridge that was previously (and still is) to ridge into GH. is now very nearly ridging into spain. ridging the completley wrong way.Hasnt completely happened so far, but that is a very close call.
Originally Posted by: Russwirral
Pressure does seem to be falling over Spain on this run though. I am liking it better than the 00Z out to 168.
Originally Posted by: Gusty
The return of the `euroslug`??
The High connection is maintained in the Atlantic on this run, thus blocking the Azores feature, so we should see a different outcome in FI, if we are not already in FI at T156.
Our only hope Gusty is for you to take 2 weeks off again.
Funnily enough the HP cell to our SW may help us out here. Pressure is much stronger there compared to the 00z and it may prevent the Azores low from blasting through towards us. t162:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=0
Originally Posted by: Shropshire
Actually it has gone against my expectations and seems to show a low slipping through the gap south of Iceland at T180.
Massive differences by this stage though. Just goes to show no run should be taken as the be all and end all, even just 7 days out.
06z just about hangs on, but one gets the feeling this cold spell is on its knees. Big downgrade in the Ec ens. Normally when it downgrades, it never upgrades again.
Looks like the 06Z is going to snatch quick defeat from a promising set up at 192 as the trough seems to get a sudden boost.
The problem is without any heights over Scandi there is nothing to stop the low heading northeast when we want it to go southeast
Looks like that cold air is going to be just brushed away, this country really is a dump for weather, and before, anyone says move then, i would if i could but i simply can't afford it.
Thankfully, FI is even more FI than usual due to the uncertainties in the so-called reliable time frame. It's a veritable horror show after T+216.
Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER
So why did the models predict such an almighty balls up!?? Anyway, I guess it's no difference really - I nerve expected it - after weeks and months of low pressure I didn't expect this blocking pattern to occur suddenly and having watched the latest forecast with Helen Willetts she is now saying that there is a small chance it could turn colder and drier next week before unsettled weather returns by the end of next week. - Where do we go from here?
oh dear . classic west based -NAO.
Cant see how we can escape this one now. Another failed cold spell to add to the long list!
Now it looks like we will only have Westerly winds at best before south westerly winds and southerly winds return by next weekend? Right?What a disaster eh?http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.gif
I thought the weather online weather 60% confident!?
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20160107
Will be interesting to see their update as well!
Just one run but if correct there's still a chance of Jan ending up in the mild bucket!