We've had the following cascaded down to us for Emergency Response preparedness:

"The Met Office have issued a Cold Weather Alert for the UK for next week. It's not expected to affect us in Kent & Sussex until Tuesday"

Make of that what you will

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=4&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

To be fair the criteria for the Cold Weather Alerts are not exactly stringent for southern softy locations. Basically it just means you might be able to leave your milk on the doorstep all day and have a 50% chance it won't go off.

Both ECM and GFS are mild outlirs in their suite. More runs are needed. UKMO is very different to the other runs, I suggest waiting until the 12Z set; the models are all over the place today. 

Still, I advise people to ignore any solutions that are unrealistic including dart board lows, or LPs on very wierd tracks. At the end of the day there are only really two options, mild or cold. Inbetweenie situs are not realistic.

In my opinion only, I really do think that situations like these are really playing catch-up.

Before the internet, many people actually watched tv weather and listened to the radio. Even the printed media raised eyebrows. Teletext! Weather for farmers! Long range telephone forecasts! LOL - I used to tune in, phone, scan and seek every bit of detail as possible in my younger days but the reality is this: all of the above is simply out-of-date.

I have not actually watched a tv weather broadcast for a decade!!! Waste of time. Poor graphics, out-of-date and too generalised. Maybe they serve a purpose for the casual person who wants to know if it will be wet or dry today/tomorrow.

See you on 1st march then Steve please

C'mon, Brian, it's just a wobble.

It does seem that once (or rather, if) the cold air containing 850's just borderline enough for snow production does eventually arrive at this end of the UK at the end of next week, it'll quickly get brushed aside by default maritime south westerly airflow.
  The northern contingence should do well snow-wise out of this cold spell, while the best us southerner can hope for is a good few days of sunny days and frosty nights to dry things up.  Best quit while I'm behind and just bank that.
  I reckon there'll be a "transitional" snowfall event later on down the line (next weekend?) should a warm front try and move back in from the Atlantic and run onto the cold air sitting over the UK. That can sometimes provide the goods snow-wise but it's not really the "holy grail" of wintry weather we are looking for as they tend to be short lived and over high ground before the mild air eventually takes over making it all misty and murky in the end.

One thing to bare in mind, this thing:

has tropical characteristics, note is is fairly symmetrical, and with a well defined eye. Currently it is not tropical (note the cold front); however if this does become a cyclone this could really complicate things. Cyclones are very efficient transporters of heat to the northern latitudes, and it will depend on the exact tack whether it acts to increase WAA towards greenland or it causes CAA off canada in its wake.

A bit more support again from the 06z ensembles of an early end to the cold spell. The op and control going warmer quickly...still plenty of support for a prolonged cold spell, so hopefully the 12z runs from all models give us some clarity.

I hope you're not including James Madden, or a certain parliamentary party leader's brother in that statement! 

Current thinking from NOAA gives 30% chance on cyclone formation with some sub-tropical characteristics. Projected track out to 5 days:

Looks to me like the 06z GFS ensemble was better than the 0z, so are we looking at improving as the day goes on again? Morning wobble?

Time will tell. Looking a lot colder overall next week, so nie to have some options.

Martin

FWIW (which isn't much given all the uncertainties around), the ECM control this morning brings SW'lies across the UK by 204, then brings in a mixture of southerlies and SW'lies for the rest of the run (to 360), with some exceptionally mild conditions by the end.

Wouldnt be suprised at all if high pressure was to build to the north n/east at t120 t144 on tomorrows gfs runs

Sometimes Darren....it's OK not to share.

Now I'm depressed.

;-)

It might be that at certain times of the year or in certain patterns you need more data and greater refinement to be able to calculate the outcome correctly.

A regularly defined low in an otherwise calm atmosphere could be modelled with a pocket calculator, but the current set-up, which is spawning everything from Azores lows to Arctic highs, is presumably the result of unusual complexity, and hence needs something like the number of data points and calculations that result in the ECM op not emerging until a good hour after the other models.

I am purely guessing here though.

Chavs and scroats don't step outside when it's cold

very apt by Fergie

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/685450638667460609