Model Output Discussion 6/1/16 21:25>>>· Page 27

bledur
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 14:25:43

#651

Cooling off, then warming up , though not above average.

Slideshow image

cultman1
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 14:31:58

#652

It is currently around 8 degrees in London today Friday and having just read Brian's home page and buzz updates it seems a cold spell at least for the South is becoming increasingly less likely and basically next week could land up being a continuation of today's cool weatherwhich is average for January ? If the projected very mild air wins the battle, which I have a sneaking suspicion it will, we could be back to the horrendous very mild and wet conditions of the last two months?
Do the weather forum experts think this is now likely to happen?

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 14:40:56

#653

It is currently around 8 degrees in London today Friday and having just read Brian's home page and buzz updates it seems a cold spell at least for the South is becoming increasingly less likely and basically next week could land up being a continuation of today's cool weatherwhich is average for January ? If the projected very mild air wins the battle, which I have a sneaking suspicion it will, we could be back to the horrendous very mild and wet conditions of the last two months?
Do the weather forum experts think this is now likely to happen?

Originally Posted by: cultman1

Meto suggesting the cold spell won't be severe but anywhere could see some snow even in the south next week. Meto also say cold spell could end about 18th/19th but could go longer. Beeb forecast still have UK under Northerlies on the 17th so expect upgrades tonight. ECM and GFS handling the low entering the UK about the 17th very poorly will probably be much further south less strong so expect a continuation of the cold weather after the 17th.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 14:51:10

#654

It is currently around 8 degrees in London today Friday and having just read Brian's home page and buzz updates it seems a cold spell at least for the South is becoming increasingly less likely and basically next week could land up being a continuation of today's cool weatherwhich is average for January ? If the projected very mild air wins the battle, which I have a sneaking suspicion it will, we could be back to the horrendous very mild and wet conditions of the last two months?
Do the weather forum experts think this is now likely to happen?

Originally Posted by: cultman1

Obviously only Brian can answer the question but I think he is being guided by the trend overnight and assuming that this trend continues, i.e. slightly to downgrade the cold and its duration. That may be the right call but only if the overnight trends continue. Against that the met Office seem to be firming up on it being cold enough country-wide for sleet and snow showers and that's what the output suggests. When will it end? At best the end of next week, possibly not until the following week.

Once the cold pattern is broken who knows? The default safe bet is a return to a more mobile pattern. Pattern matching of El Nino winters suggests February could break that pattern but there's no certainty at all.

Probably the only certainty is that if we get a mild winter we'll get blocking in March and April.....

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

PLEDGE73
Newbie

08 January 2016 14:51:52

#655

Going back to the model instability, any pattern development in reality which is causing the models currently to downgrade after next week is being forecast because the models use (a vast range of-) historical information, but that historical information is only of value if the pattern development takes place (in reality) in the context of a similar broader pattern taking into account all of the teleconnections to what occurred in the past. we're in uncharted territory, and there's a high possibility that the models are being lead- astray by a signal which historically has lead to a break- down of the block but which this time won't/ may not happen. My guess is that once whatever is causing the downgrade has shifted- on in time and it becomes clear that the result is not what has happened before/ what usually happens, the models will revert to a stronger Northern Blocking suggestion. Don't be surprised then, if we have a few days to come of disappointing model output.

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 14:55:58

#656

Meto suggesting the cold spell won't be severe but anywhere could see some snow even in the south next week. Meto also say cold spell could end about 18th/19th but could go longer. Beeb forecast still have UK under Northerlies on the 17th so expect upgrades tonight. ECM and GFS handling the low entering the UK about the 17th very poorly will probably be much further south less strong so expect a continuation of the cold weather after the 17th.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

Look there a many on here who know more than me but judging by the Meto and Beeb forecasts expect big upgrades tonight especially with regard to length of spell. It doesn't look severe but it doesn't have to be to get snow even in the south.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

springsunshine
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 15:05:00

#657

Just one run but if correct there's still a chance of Jan ending up in the mild bucket!

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Normal service resumed then.

Enjoy any brief cold incursion next week,im beginning to think imby and indeed most of the south west coastal area, there a possibility of going through the whole winter frost free.

picturesareme
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 15:12:39

#658

Meto suggesting the cold spell won't be severe but anywhere could see some snow even in the south next week. Meto also say cold spell could end about 18th/19th but could go longer. Beeb forecast still have UK under Northerlies on the 17th so expect upgrades tonight. ECM and GFS handling the low entering the UK about the 17th very poorly will probably be much further south less strong so expect a continuation of the cold weather after the 17th.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

and where have the metoffice said this? Links please 😊

some faraway beach
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 15:25:49

#659

PLEDGE73: "the models use (a vast range of-) historical information..."

Are you sure about this? I assumed historical information and any sort of pattern matching have nothing to do with model output, and that they are simply the mathematical outcomes of applying equations derived from physical laws to the state of the atmosphere. Hence the term NWP- numerical weather prediction.

We see the results of these calculations transformed into maps, but the raw output is numbers.

I know that the Met Office Fax charts certainly have a human input, and may take account of historical information according to whoever is assessing the model output with a critical eye. But not, I thought, the basic model output discussed here. Indeed, Meteociel offers a "bias-corrected" feature to take account of the lack of historical information in the output.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Arcus
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 15:26:14

#660

so, assuming this is the low which is creating havoc with all the models in five or so days' time, may or may not become a tropical cyclone? However, I think the key aspect to this important observation is that the guys from NOAA, whom spend all their time expertly tracking and monitoring these disturbances, think it's not going anywhere near our latitudes, never mind the UK?

Originally Posted by: Jeff

To be fair, in 5 days time GFS for example has it progged further north but it's in a similar ballpark and on a similar track. It's what happens after that...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl

Russwirral
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 15:29:52

#661

and so it begins again. Seat belts on everyone. Hands inside the carriage.

Photo's will be offered at the end

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history

kmoorman
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 15:33:34

#662

and so it begins again. Seat belts on everyone. Hands inside the carriage.

Photo's will be offered at the end

Originally Posted by: Russwirral

Just in case.

http://www.samaritans.org/how-we-can-help-you/contact-us

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 15:41:08

#663

and so it begins again. Seat belts on everyone. Hands inside the carriage.

Photo's will be offered at the end

Originally Posted by: Russwirral

I imagine this will be the 'expression du jour'

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

warrenb
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 15:43:36

#664

The +0 chart looks wrong, bin this run.

Tonbridge 45m

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

08 January 2016 15:44:37

#665

The +0 chart looks wrong, bin this run.

Originally Posted by: warrenb

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan