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tallyho_83
09 January 2016 19:06:56




Cold in a good set up


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Really? - which is more reliable? This is what I see - a much milder set up for the same day!? - In fact the total opposite.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


will-b
09 January 2016 19:07:07


Hi all,


Just a quick question. Been following the updates anonymously but would just like to ask what FI means? I've seen it in a few posts. No expert or anything, I'm here just wondering what the experts think 


 


Another question is when I signed up, some of the pages on the forum go black and white for some odd reason.. and Im not sure why.


Originally Posted by: seajamiet 

black and white page,,,try turning off add block !

doctormog
09 January 2016 19:09:28


 


Really? - which is more reliable? This is what I see - a much milder set up for the same day!? - In fact the total opposite.


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


That's because you are replying to a comment on the 12z ECM run by posting a GFS 12z operational run chart! 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Solar Cycles
09 January 2016 19:11:10


 


That's because you are replying to a comment on the 12z ECM run by posting a GFS 12z operational run chart! 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Phil24
09 January 2016 19:11:39




Cold in a good set up


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Nice, Pity its so far out.  Still believe this is more evidence of an overall trend taking us into the freezer.  


Thanks for the advice on the quotes outside of the box

SJV
09 January 2016 19:14:47

Of course, ECM had to be a stonker of a run didn't it 


Here we go again 

Gandalf The White
09 January 2016 19:17:13


Here we go again!


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Except that the ECM runs have been reasonably consistent in keeping Arctic air over the country and LP systems traversing NW to SE for several days.  That doesn't make it right, of course, but it's been handling the evolution better a little more consistently than GFS, I think.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Solar Cycles
09 January 2016 19:23:30


 


Except that the ECM runs have been reasonably consistent in keeping Arctic air over the country and LP systems traversing NW to SE for several days.  That doesn't make it right, of course, but it's been handling the evolution better a little more consistently than GFS, I think.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Indeed it has but I expect surface cold by next weekend, still after months of it pissing down I'll take that. I'm still not expecting much in the way of snow IMBY midweek, the main action seems to have shifted east, still it's only been 5 years since I saw lying snow.

Gooner
09 January 2016 19:26:25


 


That's because you are replying to a comment on the 12z ECM run by posting a GFS 12z operational run chart! 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Whether Idle
09 January 2016 19:29:31


Indeed it has but I expect surface cold by next weekend, still after months of it pissing down I'll take that. I'm still not expecting much in the way of snow IMBY midweek, the main action seems to have shifted east, still it's only been 5 years since I saw lying snow.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


My expectations of the forthcoming week are limited to colder weather than of late, drier weather, some frost and the odd wintry shower.  That would be very welcome after the warmest start to winter since records began and a step back towards normality and away from destructive floods and storms.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
09 January 2016 19:33:45
The GFS at 240 seems to be just competing with itself to see how much it can disagree with the euros...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
colin46
09 January 2016 19:38:58

The GFS at 240 seems to be just competing with itself to see how much it can disagree with the euros...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

UGH!!">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

UGH!! that's horrid!

shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
The Beast from the East
09 January 2016 19:42:03


 


Except that the ECM runs have been reasonably consistent in keeping Arctic air over the country and LP systems traversing NW to SE for several days.  That doesn't make it right, of course, but it's been handling the evolution better a little more consistently than GFS, I think.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


But we are walking the tightrope though. ECM could easily have ended up like GFS if those systems didn't undercut. Many ens members will probably show  this

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
seajamiet
09 January 2016 19:44:55


black and white page,,,try turning off add block !


Originally Posted by: will-b 


 


Yep, I've done that now. Should've done that a long long time ago 


 


But that definitely deters ad-blockers. The model output doesn't look so good in black and white 


 


Thanks everyone for the info about FI

Gandalf The White
09 January 2016 19:48:40


UGH!!">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

Originally Posted by: colin46 

UGH!! that's horrid!



But fortunately almost certainly wrong as well.


The shared view - certainly mine - seems to be that GFS isn't dealing with the energy exiting North America in the middle of next week.  It wants to flatten the pattern by driving energy much too easily and quickly through the block.  If that's wrong, which the other models suggest is the case, then the subsequent evolution must also be wrong.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Bertwhistle
09 January 2016 19:49:52

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35273814


 


Well, now....snow risk for us.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Karl Guille
09 January 2016 19:52:10


 


You changed your post.....!  Anyway here's T+216 - stiff north-easterly in the wake of low pressure.




Edit: with impressive 850s:


A


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


LOL, sorry about that, I thought that I had viewed the wrong panel there for a minute but as it turns out T192 and T216 were broadly similar with the Low deciding quite which way to go! Northerlies are not my thing as experience living this side of the Channel for nearly 50 years has proved but these are really very good charts for the UK! 😜

St. Sampson
Guernsey
Ally Pally Snowman
09 January 2016 19:54:19


http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35273814


 


Well, now....snow risk for us.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


 


Yes definitely the coldest snowiest forecast yet. Showed breakdown early next week though which is a shame hopefully the ECM will prove correct.


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
09 January 2016 19:56:30


http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35273814


 


Well, now....snow risk for us.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Going with the Atlantic at the end though......................favouring GFS ?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Brian Gaze
09 January 2016 19:57:44


 


Going with the Atlantic at the end though......................favouring GFS ?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Just watched it and that was my view too. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Arbroath 1320
09 January 2016 19:59:37

The GFS at 240 seems to be just competing with itself to see how much it can disagree with the euros...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif


If we could see the t264 chart from ECM it wouldn't look to dissimilar to that GFS chart at t240. The high over us at t240 on ECM is a sinker and would also end up in the Euro mainland allowing the Atlantic systems in and South Westerlys across us; just like GFS at t240.


it's all academic of course as neither chart will look like that come the 19 Jan.

GGTTH
Bertwhistle
09 January 2016 20:01:06


 


Just watched it and that was my view too. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I'm thinking that after a fast, canapes are just as good as a large meal.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Whether Idle
09 January 2016 20:01:13


 


Just watched it and that was my view too. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yes, BBC going with GFS it appears beyond this cold week


 


 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gooner
09 January 2016 20:04:14


 


Yes, BBC going with GFS it appears beyond this cold week


 


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Lets remember this was put together long before the 12z's so not 'that' concerned just yet

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
09 January 2016 20:04:35


 


Yes, BBC going with GFS it appears beyond this cold week


 


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


I wouldn't go that far GFS breaks it down on Sunday beeb said early next week and mentioned doubt. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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