So which is correct?

if we knew that we'd have long ago cleaned up on the lottery and the Grand National!

A t264 ECM chart (if it existed) would go with the Atlantic and SW winds as well though. The projection from t216 to t240 on ECM shows a rapidly sinking high. All conjecture of course as it's well into FI especially in the current set up.

Certainly been a fun few days in model watching land

Given how things are still evolving I suspect the entertainment will continue for a while yet.

Following on from tonight's ECM run, it'll be interesting to see where it sits in the ens and also if the theme of a HP collapsing over us and on in to Europe is developed or dropped in subsequent runs. It's not an unusual evolution but then it is 10 days away in what appears a very complex situation. 

Before the really unreliable part of the model runs I think it's pretty safe to say now it will get colder, there will be snow for Scotland and parts of Northern England and there may be some wintriness further south at points. Pretty much everywhere should at least see some frosts

Given this month was apparently a write off, doomed to be mild and wet like December, I don't think what we have for next week is too bad at all really

Sunday is early next week! But I agree there is plenty of scope for adjustment.

I've never seen any BBC week ahead have a great deal of confidence predicting the pattern for the end of the next week, never mind go into the week after with any degree of confidence. In this set-up I would imagine that is even more pertinent.

Well the ECM Mean is out and it looks to be going mild by day 10 (Tuesday). So Beeb maybe/probably/sadly right.

And here is chart for Jan 21st 1947

Big spread from sunday onwards on the dutch ensembles.

Yes big spread but always good to see both the Op and Control go into the freezer! Looking at that spread at day 10 the Mean isn't much use tonight.

Given the drama and uncertainty I wouldn't be worrying about day 9 or 10.  I'd be surprised if we can maintain a cold feed by that time , the best realistic result would be a high over us that could develop into a better set up later on. 

Yes I would agree with all of that and at least we have a chance of snow next week which is far better than the crap we've had so far this winter.

DeBilt mean 2-metre temp is still 2.5C at day 10. Must be at least a few cold runs in the suite. Maybe not all of them a sinker either.

Agree with this and the good posts that follow it. 

Less of a right hand jab from the shortwave on this run, its edging towards the Euros scenario.

MAybe post some graphics...to back up your trolling one liners

It's not a trolling comment but reflects the run at that point.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

Now now,  that can't be considered trolling.   He's been very even handed the last few days to be fair. 

also - a very encouraging shape to the Mid atlantic Ridge. Previously it was more in favour of being associated with the Euro Slug... this run positions it more towards the atlantic - and dare i say it a GH. Could be a trend back to GH, but it needs to bulk itself up a bit before it turns into a block proper.

Edit - promising pressure falling over france and Med.  Heading back to the right kind of charts 

Fair's fair (and I can't believe I'm posting this) SB's cut the trolling & been a good little contributor to the MO thread lately.