All I can say is, that the today's GFS versus UKMO for 120 and 144 look to showing disagreement of forecast for Sunday and Monday- the BIG Picture who get's this modelled correctly is will get confidence Model Watching.
I like the UKMO keeping us dry cold with frost early and late for Both Sunday and Monday.
GFS FI beyond this Saturday is really a lot different to UKMO but who will get it right.
Ahem, do us like a wintry Breakdown rain with sleet and snow or just crisp winter sunshine and winter frost under a Arctic Greenland High.
What happens at that point and what follows is all to play for, at 144 UKMO has NWBiscay Low Pressure want to track east that may affect France withCold NE flow, mild in it's South and SW SE.
By Tomorrow's GFS and UKMO 12z run this should be sorted I hope.
If the PV get stuck in NW Atlantic with Greenland East SE High to UK high at the 120-144 mark, and the De-accelerate PV Low's GFS want to make them not as UKMO keep it West and NW of North Atlantic at Sunday Monday, GFS has three Low setup affecting our UK Greenland North Atlantic High.
I noted also that the NNW flow on Monday still very close to Eastern side of us.
Useful and debateable setup ahem...
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Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.Β
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.