Something cooking possibly:

Is it me or does this look like colder air could come in from the east end of Next week? as the Weather for the week ahead suggests it's a possibility? Bet we will be back to a Bartlett in the 12z run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.gif

Lovely GFS this morning and we know that the GFS is the best model for picking up pattern changes from far out. So in GFS we trust.

I hope so, but the ensemble view shows that the colder option is still in the minority.  It would be lovely is subsequent runs and other output were to support this with an increasing likelihood, and then we'd be off on another of our rollercoaster rides in Model Watching World.

Maybe, just maybe.

Thanks Tom. seems a bit strange as it's hard to see how we could get a N/NW flow from the general position shown at day 7.

It could only be from retrogression to West of the UK, surely?

The European high collapses ahead of a cold front and depression then a new one builds further west

Ah ok, a reset rather than a retrogression.   thanks.

I could live with that

We are in a period in which momentum is being added over the space of a week or so, and the models have a terrible habit of overdoing the amount of momentum added. I have seen evidence this morning (GWO plots for those in the know) to suggest this is happening again and is likely to continue for at least a few more days.

Given that split jet scenarios require a weak enough jet for a low to drop SE and support highs at latitudes that can bring the UK easterlies, this could have big ramifications for later next week.

I've not been sure, though, whether it will be enough to overcome the state of the Arctic in the run-up to the anticipated large warming or SSW (which it will be has not yet become clear). The uncertainty remains today but that the GFS model is managing to produce some slider low scenarios does suggest to me that the odds of it being enough are greater than I had been reckoning.

The next 3-5 days might be fun, or hear-tearing, or most likely a bit of both 

why is the easterly so difficult to achieve,i mean a mega-cold one,like in the old days lol,it gets close sometimes,but nearly always misses ,in the old days ,you would see the blues advancing from russia and nearly always they would make it across the Norh Sea to the UK,now its the other way around,it was so exciting seeing the march of cold air travelling to the uk and knowing snow would be falling soon

molly I have often thought of this myself. Back in the 70's and 80's Siberian winds came every so often accompanied by beefy snow showers for my area. This scenario would often last 7 to 14 days, the high eventually being pushed back by Atlantic winds that more often than not brought transitory snow. Why does it not happen now- well I haven't a clue- but it has puzzled me for some time. Perhaps some of our more knowledgeable posters know the  finer details for such events- or non events as we have become accustomed to?

Looks like this morning's run has been slung out the window, 12c next Wednesday evening if that chart comes off, no major surprises.

Oh dear, GFS and GEM now pants.

I think it may be worth taking a break for a week or so.

My exact thoughts too

As is the meto run 

Strat warming will save us http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016012012/gfsnh-10-336.png?12

 Haven't looked at the charts yet but I am now in a state of anticipation. Hope you're right

Certainly looks that way. Shame GFS has been less than reliable during this month. Either way it's good to see an FI trending to cold with each run 

Well the OP was one of the colder solutions this morning. Expect the 12z op to be within the milder range this time. Oh the joys of model watching! 

The Warm Sectors and Sceuro high Western Europe, should return very soon indeed.

Far North and Far NNE Atlantic and Far NW Atlantic Polar Vortex Low's are expected.

Often mild in 546 dam line SSW flows, and often dry outlook for Model Output discussion, for next 7-9 days.

At least we will not get much rain from this, and less windy weather is offered.

Great.

😀😆.