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LeedsLad123
21 January 2016 12:54:01

Retron is speaking from a Kent POV. December 2010 was significantly better than anything in the 90s up here and better than most of the 80s - only Dec 81 was as good IMO. Easterlies are usually shyte here anyway so their absence isn't missed. Northerlies all the way!


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Retron
21 January 2016 13:02:48


Also - when people say, for example,  "we've never had snowfall or cold or eastlery for xx years, it grates on me.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Odd, because it's the truth. We haven't had a deep cold easterly since 1997, simple as that.


It's also the case that before then we had several in the 60s, a couple in the 70s, several in the 80s and a few in the 90s. Then - nothing, they just ceased to exist. Bearing in mind IMBY the only way we get decent, lasting snow is from an easterly, it's why I for one will always be looking for one.


The last easterly setup was actually in 2005, but that arrived far too late to bring anything other than slushy snow and there were no ice days here from it. There was no deep cold air involved. That was also preceded by a large SSW event.


 


Leysdown, north Kent
kmoorman
21 January 2016 13:10:58


 


Odd, because it's the truth. We haven't had a deep cold easterly since 1997, simple as that.


It's also the case that before then we had several in the 60s, a couple in the 70s, several in the 80s and a few in the 90s. Then - nothing, they just ceased to exist. Bearing in mind IMBY the only way we get decent, lasting snow is from an easterly, it's why I for one will always be looking for one.


The last easterly setup was actually in 2005, but that arrived far too late to bring anything other than slushy snow and there were no ice days here from it. There was no deep cold air involved. That was also preceded by a large SSW event.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


How do you define a 'deep cold easterly' - so we know what our terms of reference are?


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Russwirral
21 January 2016 13:10:58


 


Odd, because it's the truth. We haven't had a deep cold easterly since 1997, simple as that.


It's also the case that before then we had several in the 60s, a couple in the 70s, several in the 80s and a few in the 90s. Then - nothing, they just ceased to exist. Bearing in mind IMBY the only way we get decent, lasting snow is from an easterly, it's why I for one will always be looking for one.


The last easterly setup was actually in 2005, but that arrived far too late to bring anything other than slushy snow and there were no ice days here from it. There was no deep cold air involved. That was also preceded by a large SSW event.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


OUt of interest what is deep cold from your POV? Woudl that be where Leysdown is snowy and snow stays on the ground for a long time?


 


That happened back in 2013.North wales and Northern England had snow on the ground for a number of weeks.  To the scale of around 1 metre in places falling in one night?


 


If its snow and deep cold on an easterly, didnt Central London (the heat island) get 12" of snow that year? (2005?)


 


My point is, just because the deep cold didnt impact your part of the world severely, doesnt mean it didnt happen.


 


Otherwise i could probably discount most if not all cold spells as we usually get naff all in our part of the world. 


Retron
21 January 2016 13:50:47


How do you define a 'deep cold easterly' - so we know what our terms of reference are?


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


A Scandinavian High advecting easterly winds for several days with an upper low moving westwards across England. 850s would be below -10C, preferably -12C or below. At the surface at the coast, at least one ice day with a high of -1C or lower. A few inches or more of snow, preferably powder rather than slushy. Lake-effect snow will enhance depths near the coast, aided by instability from the upper cold pool. Drifting will occur in the wind.


In other words, a decent cold and snowy spell, the likes of which was last seen here in 1997 - which had 6 inches of snow, highs of -2C, and well - all of the above really!


Note - it's not just the effects above, it's the way we've not had a proper Scandinavian High setup with an upper cold pool and double-digit negative 850s in a couple of decades. 2005 was the closest we came to it, but it was simply too late in the season.


 


Leysdown, north Kent
cultman1
21 January 2016 13:57:35
getting back to the model output what's the prognosis for the next two weeks? Mild or very mild ad infinitum or a change to cooler conditions?
picturesareme
21 January 2016 13:59:37


 


Odd, because it's the truth. We haven't had a deep cold easterly since 1997, simple as that.


It's also the case that before then we had several in the 60s, a couple in the 70s, several in the 80s and a few in the 90s. Then - nothing, they just ceased to exist. Bearing in mind IMBY the only way we get decent, lasting snow is from an easterly, it's why I for one will always be looking for one.


The last easterly setup was actually in 2005, but that arrived far too late to bring anything other than slushy snow and there were no ice days here from it. There was no deep cold air involved. That was also preceded by a large SSW event.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


they ceased with the demise of the Soviet Union - coincidence? 😏😋😄 

cultman1
21 January 2016 14:00:00
getting back to the model output what's the prognosis for the next two weeks? Mild or very mild ad infinitum or a change to cooler conditions?
Gooner
21 January 2016 14:03:26


Retron is speaking from a Kent POV. December 2010 was significantly better than anything in the 90s up here and better than most of the 80s - only Dec 81 was as good IMO. Easterlies are usually shyte here anyway so their absence isn't missed. Northerlies all the way!


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


And probably from an Oxfordshire POV, we do ok in Easterlies


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Brian Gaze
21 January 2016 14:12:52


 


they ceased with the demise of the Soviet Union - coincidence? 😏😋😄 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I raised this point years ago. I believe there is some evidence that deindustrialisation following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe may have had an effect due to reduced particulate emissions.


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picturesareme
21 January 2016 14:28:50


 


I raised this point years ago. I believe there is some evidence that deindustrialisation following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe may have had an effect due to reduced particulate emissions.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


i was being tongue in cheek but that ^^^^ is an interesting point 😊 Since the demise of the USSR China & India (maybe) have had a booming time creating loads of pollution in the process. Would this not have replaced the particulate emissions lost by the end of the soviet days?

Russwirral
21 January 2016 14:34:16


 


i was being tongue in cheek but that ^^^^ is an interesting point 😊 Since the demise of the USSR China & India (maybe) have had a booming time creating loads of pollution in the process. Would this not have replaced the particulate emissions lost by the end of the soviet days?


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I have often wondered if the days of the UK suffering from industrialisation ie Smog.  Had an affect on our weather.  My dad would often say how the snow around these parts would year after year fall in the feet depth range.   So i often wondered if the particals in the air had something to do with it.  As later in the centruy - it was more GAS driven, with Gas boilers and Fires being more the norm.


 


What i discovered was that in actual fact, the Wirral has never really seen such snow depths only on rare ocassions.  47 and 63 standout years.  Not every year as my dads memory pointed to.  and infact what we get now in terms of snow amounts ,is really not far from reality of what weve always got.  Of course people miscalculate snow drifts all the time, which skew actual facts.


 


I think it was someone on here who put up local snow depths, but i cant find the link now.


 


Reminds me of when people say it was sunnier and warmer when they were kids... could be most of us actually work indoors when we get older and rarely spend time in the sun in the summer when its sunny Mon-Fri.


Essan
21 January 2016 14:45:09


This cold spell for example had temps down to -12 in parts, and -8 in fairly rural parts of the southern midlands.  Thats pretty notable.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Although to be fair, the places that saw -12c and -8c are places that would expect to see such temperatures almost every winter (it's very unsual if they don't).   Which makes the 'cold spell' quite normal and in no way notable?

The min of -3.9c here will be notable only if that turns out to be the lowest temperature this winter.

Hereford's max of -2.2c was probably the most notable temp?  


Andy
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Weather & Earth Science News 

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Russwirral
21 January 2016 14:48:25


 


Although to be fair, the places that saw -12c and -8c are places that would expect to see such temperatures almost every winter (it's very unsual if they don't).   Which makes the 'cold spell' quite normal and in no way notable?

The min of -3.9c here will be notable only if that turns out to be the lowest temperature this winter.

Hereford's max of -2.2c was probably the most notable temp?  


Originally Posted by: Essan 


 


The coldest temps experienced for 3 yrs, makes it very notable.


 


Wasnt the temp in reading or Herts around -8*c?


The Beast from the East
21 January 2016 14:58:59

getting back to the model output what's the prognosis for the next two weeks? Mild or very mild ad infinitum or a change to cooler conditions?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


the ECM op and GFS control show a path back to cold. We just have to wait for the troughing to move into Scandi and hope for a mid atlantic ridge to build north


The METO update seems to suggest high pressure to the east in Feb, perhaps affecting only the SE at times, but no sign of anything significant. But this winter may indeed die a slow death or end up very mild like 1998


"We have some alternative facts for you"
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Saint Snow
21 January 2016 15:11:16


The last easterly setup was actually in 2005, but that arrived far too late to bring anything other than slushy snow and there were no ice days here from it. There was no deep cold air involved. That was also preceded by a large SSW event. 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


Looking back through Kartenarchiv, wasn't March 13 an easterly set-up?


I certainly remember an easterly wind, with 850's sub -10c for several days. I particularly remember it because, unlike with most easterlies, we had snow from it! (two good falls).


Normally easterlies in this region are pants. The 1987  'Scandy High' - the most celebrated on here - was rubbish for snow in these parts, for instance.


 



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cultman1
21 January 2016 15:25:50


 


the ECM op and GFS control show a path back to cold. We just have to wait for the troughing to move into Scandi and hope for a mid atlantic ridge to build north


The METO update seems to suggest high pressure to the east in Feb, perhaps affecting only the SE at times, but no sign of anything significant. But this winter may indeed die a slow death or end up very mild like 1998


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

  Thank you we live in hope!

nsrobins
21 January 2016 15:39:15


 


 


Looking back through Kartenarchiv, wasn't March 13 an easterly set-up?


I certainly remember an easterly wind, with 850's sub -10c for several days. I particularly remember it because, unlike with most easterlies, we had snow from it! (two good falls).


Normally easterlies in this region are pants. The 1987  'Scandy High' - the most celebrated on here - was rubbish for snow in these parts, for instance.


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


1987 - what a year for weather! The Jan 10th - 15th easterly spell is cited more for low temperatures than snow. Max here on the 12th of -7C. Now that is notable anywhere in the UK IMO let alone on the South coast.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Russwirral
21 January 2016 15:41:34


 


 


Looking back through Kartenarchiv, wasn't March 13 an easterly set-up?


I certainly remember an easterly wind, with 850's sub -10c for several days. I particularly remember it because, unlike with most easterlies, we had snow from it! (two good falls).


Normally easterlies in this region are pants. The 1987  'Scandy High' - the most celebrated on here - was rubbish for snow in these parts, for instance.


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QqEwsotcAY


 


T'was a blinder


picturesareme
21 January 2016 16:08:31


 


 


The coldest temps experienced for 3 yrs, makes it very notable.


 


Wasnt the temp in reading or Herts around -8*c?


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


This has been the coldest spell in 11 months.


-13.7C last January in the highlands.. 


December 14, Jan & Feb 15 all had numerous cold spells with -7C or lower being recorded in the south of England... Some of these were extensively recorded.


Tha coldest in the south was near -9C in Berkshire. 


 

kmoorman
21 January 2016 16:12:35
I guess your own local experience does affect how you remember weather events. March '13 delivered nothing here, or I assume it did, as I don't recall it at all!

Feb 1991 also, despite what Francis Wilson said, didn't deliver much snow to my area either, but it was a tad chilly.
Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
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Essan
21 January 2016 16:13:34


The coldest temps experienced for 3 yrs, makes it very notable.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



It makes the past 2 winters very notable


Wasnt the temp in reading or Herts around -8*c?




Benson.   Farnborough and Hurn saw -7c    Neither are unusual in a normal winter.


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

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kmoorman
21 January 2016 16:15:39




It makes the past 2 winters very notable


 


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Where notable = sh*t?


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
picturesareme
21 January 2016 16:17:43

It would seem some people have very short memories indeed! Last winter was a cold winter, and for those up north it was often a snowy one too - especially towards the northwest. It was so cold that it left the seas to the west of Scotland & Ireland significantly below average which in turn left for a cooler summer.


for those needing a refresh..,


 


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries

The Beast from the East
21 January 2016 16:43:33

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016012112/gfsnh-0-228.png?12


 


At least we have high pressure over the pole, which may lead to something in Feb


Until then, patience is required, but we should be used to that!


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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