February 1998 would be fine by me - dry, sunny and exceptionally mild. Reached 18C here and the average high was 12C. Much better than rainy cloudy crap like we got in December.

Summer 1998 OTOH was a disaster.. any of the gurus and psychics on here want to write off Summer 2016? 

I agree with that, Brian. I don't expect anything sustained and severe before mid February and, beyond that, I'll be looking forward to spring.

i remember that well- glorious warm February weekend that enabled me to cut the grass in my shorts! However didn't the following March have a cold snap?

I expect quite a few people would be happy to see the London ENS look like this:

I also agree - as do many others. I also saw that Tom C suggested the most likely source of the next cold will stem from the N rather than a big freeze event from the E. This seems to be the favourite option within GEFS and as Tom said, within MOGREPS too. Today's ECM T+240 is one way in which this will evolve.

As you point out, the chances of a block, in the sense that many are wishing to see, has more chance of appearing in the spring months. The trouble is, of course, many will be seeking the warmth by then but that is the most likely scenario IMO. It will be typical bad luck but that is the weather. You often get what you don't want and the paradox is that the reason we all like the 'extremes' is exactly because they are not the norm.

Sadly looks like we can write off the rest of January. But february and March look a lot more interesting. GFS has significant strat warming now in early February.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=10&carte=1

There is less then 6 weeks of winter left, and even less in the real south of the UK.

 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   Milder Southerly winds will develop across the UK with troughs of Low pressure moving East across the UK tonight and tomorrow followed by milder SW winds for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will rise markedly over the UK over the next 24-48hrs. Already above 5000ft in the SW and 2000ft in the East freezing levels will rise further above all summits of the UK to be as high as 10000ft in the SW later tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mild and changeable with rain at times especially in the NW. Windy at times too.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow to blow across the UK in a West to east direction over the coming days. It then backs SW to NE across NW Britain before eventually settling West to East and generally to the North of the UK during the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today is largely focused on mild Atlantic SW'lies running throughout the period this morning due to a persistent belt of High pressure lying to the South of the UK and a strong of Low pressure to the North. Occasional troughs will move east across the UK at times within a lot of mild air when temperatures will reach average levels at worst and above average at times. Any frosts will be limited to the short interludes behind cold fronts and in the South as High pressure to the South comes closer at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is very similar in theme to the Operational Run with only day to day variances between when and when it doesn't rain. So changeable is the message and it looks often likely to be mild and breezy before things turn decidedly wet and windy late in the period as Low pressure crosses rapidly West to East across the UK as the pressure gradient steepens across Britain with westerly gales very likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA  The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning indicate a 60% pack with High pressure either to the SW of the UK with strong Westerly winds and rain at times with temperatures at least close to average. Other smaller packs show more influence from High pressure to the South of the Uk with conversely 5% showing really stormy conditions with Westerly gales and Low pressure close to northern Scotland.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an altogether milder period coming up as SW winds and occasional troughs of Low pressure move NE across the UK from today with rain at times for all with the heaviest and most persistent falls across the North and West but with brighter mild spells as well especially across the South and East. generally windy weather is likely too at times with SW gales at times in exposure especially next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate the milder conditions well with the next 24 hours seeing complex troughs crossing east over the UK with mild SW'lies taking control well in to next week with some rain at times especially in the NW and in exposure to mild moist SW winds.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning shows a mild 10 days to come with SW winds establishing in the next 24 hours and lasting throughout the next 10 days. Troughs within that flow will bring rain at times for all but most frequent in the NW at first until the latter stages of the run indicate gales and heavy rain for all as the pressure gradient is shown to steepen across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows another prolonged mild spell to come with the last of the cold air today shifting away East with the rest of the run illustrating West to SW winds and rain at times the order of the theme of NAVGEM this morning with the usual suspects in the North and West seeing the most rainfall while the east and SE see longer drier spells and mildest temperatures. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows the breakdown today towards milder and wetter weather with the theme of High pressure to the SE then South developing through next week keeping a very flat pattern of Westerly winds and mild conditions for all of the UK next week with rain at times most prolific in the North. It's not until Day 10 when there is an embryonic signal that High pressure ridging across the Atlantic could introduce a colder interlude soon after day 10 although it's difficult to ascertain whether this is a pattern shift or just another passing ridge.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is very supportive of a pattern highlighted by the Operational run with a very strong signal that Westerly winds between Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South will be present across the UK 10 days from now with mild and occasionally wet weather in a strong westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning have strengthened their theme that mild SW or Westerly winds will be blowing across the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO  at 99.4 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts then GFS at 87.7 pts. Then at 8 Days GFS has taken over the leading spot from ECM with 67.1 pts to 65.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.5 pts to 46.6 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  It appears my optimism of yesterday has fallen on deaf ears within the output this morning as all models now show a sustained period of mild Atlantic SW or West winds likely to persists across the UK over the next 10-14 days. The problem appears to be a Winter long one this year that High pressure remains too high down to the South of the UK and the Meditteranean. This permits the Jet stream to ride unabated across Northern Britain and Europe with a never ending river of mild and moist WSW winds across the UK aided by the Azores High being ever present too. The cold block shown with more resilience to the East on yesterdays output has been all but pushed right back well into Russia today with little hope of any cold from that source any time soon. Instead we have just one embryo to grasp and that is from ECM at day 10 this morning which shows a ridging process over the Atlantic which may or may not result in a hiatus in the mild and windy pattern likely up until that point. However, it is a shot in the dark and to be honest the charts this morning represent some of the poorest output for those looking for a return to cold this Winter. So with so little to look at other than days of mild and changeable weather its most definitely going to be into February at least before we see our next shot at cold in the UK and at the moment it is hard to see where that is likely to come from if the current synoptic prospects remain as stubborn as it seems.  

Next Update Friday January 22nd 2016 from 09:00 

I saw a comment from someone in the winter prospects thread yesterday that one difference that has been observed between most current model output and the pattern that prevailed throughout December is that there is more by way of high pressure over the Azores than was the case last month. The high pressure in December seemed to be pretty much concentrated over central and southern Europe whereas pressure over the Azores during the same time was relatively low.

As for the stratospheric warming or possible SSW event, I imagine that at the moment, the operational runs that we have access to will not have factored this in much, if at all. Assuming it happens as forecast, that is!

I confess to not knowing much about SSWs but I do know this: there is far too much emphasis and anticipation on these. SSWs have become a big topic of conversation in recent years but the fact is that they have always existed and haven't done that much. What about the 90s? Most of the 00s? My point is that they have existed since the big bang but because we now have colourful charts and data to look at, doesn't mean it will affect the patterns in a positive way for cold.

From the Met Office: http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/tag/sudden-stratospheric-warming/

A considerable part of the year-to-year differences between UK winters is related to the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). In these events, the polar stratospheric vortex – the fast moving circulation of stratospheric air that whirls around the North Pole in winter – abruptly breaks down. They occur one winter in two on average, and events are most common in January or February. In the majority of cases SSWs lead to the establishment of cold easterly flow at the surface across Europe and the UK. The last SSW was in January 2013, and this event contributed to the cold late winter and early spring in that year.

What impact does this have on the UK?

We normally expect our weather to come in from the west – with a flow of relatively mild air coming in off the Atlantic.

When an SSW brings easterly winds this tends to alter our weather patterns slightly, weakening areas of low pressure and moving our jet stream further south. This leads to high pressure over the North Atlantic, ‘blocking’ that flow of mild Atlantic air and dragging in cold air from the continent to the east. Exactly how cold it might be depends on the details of where the air comes from.

SSWs don’t always result in this outcome – but a cold snap follows more often than not, so the SSW greatly increases the risk of wintry weather.

Something pushing westwards from the 27th, is this a sign, sorry forget that it get's stopped in it's track's.

I will admit to not knowing a thing about stratospheric warming/SSW events until about 2010. What is widely accepted I think though is that sometimes they can affect our weather to some degree, and other times not.

IIRC, it was an event of this kind in late January/early February 2013 that was at least partly responsible for the coldish end to the 2012/13 winter (see Notty's post above) and the exceptionally cold March that year. Also, someone posted a link earlier in this thread to an article by Matt Hugo on this topic, and in it Matt stated that the severe December of 2010 came about at least partly as a result of a warming event in the stratosphere during November 2010.

I'm just not seeing it like that. Yes, for the southern two-thirds of the UK, but there seem to me to be prospects of several reloads of snow to Scotland over the next 10-14 days (both GFS and ECMF), mainly, but not exclusively, to the mountains. Bear in mind that for most folk living in Scotland the mountains are "on their doorstep", and often in their view. And I'm looking at a completely snow-covered garden at the moment.

Nothing of any interest in the 6Z GFS ensemble.  Same outlook as the 0Z.

[quote=buachaille;759281]

I'm just not seeing it like that. Yes, for the southern two-thirds of the UK, but there seem to me to be prospects of several reloads of snow to Scotland over the next 10-14 days (both GFS and ECMF), mainly, but not exclusively, to the mountains. Bear in mind that for most folk living in Scotland the mountains are "on their doorstep", and often in their view. And I'm looking at a completely snow-covered garden at the moment.

[/quote

Meteireann (Irish met.office)  is forecasting very mild conditions this weekend but much cooler next week, changeable and with frost at night. Cold( or cool) zonality . Little snow for most of us, perhaps but it ties in with your view.

Thanks for the info. Acknowledging David's post too; I would agree that SSW had a role in 2010.

However, as noted above, SSWs occur, on average, one in two winters. That is the key point to which I was initially referring to. Much of the 90s and 00s.... these were occurring and while they did influence the UK weather, they did not bring about any noteworthy big freezes (in the main). Hence my point that perhaps too many hold onto SSWs as being the holy grail in delivering cold. They are certainly a factor but because there are so many other factors involved, a SSW in its own right still means that the UK/NW Europe still generally miss out on prolonged cold periods. 2010 was an exception with many factors coming together. Likewise, various periods in the late 70s, a few in the 80s and the infamous 1987 cold shot, SSWs were playing their role, albeit the science not being as clear as it is today. UK big freezes remain rare and that is my point. SSWs are frequent events and just because it is now the buzz word doesn't mean an increase in freezes.

Meanwhile, keeping things on topic, the 06z run keeps things generally unsettled, especially in the N and with a trend of heights rising to the S. Still thinking an eventual scandi trough and height rises to the W will bring an arctic plunge and bring about the next cold spell. Patience

Based on the look at the UKMO Model and it's Fax Charts the next 7 days starting Mild with rain, 2 days, Dry and Mild at the Weekend with long fetch Southerly to SSW winds, even to Midday Monday, then onwards to Tuesday morning Some mild sector and heavy rain Monday later to Tuesday early am then Tuesday rest of day Showery with wintry showers in the WNW but turns drier in the SE but chance there of blustery showers chilly there.

By Wednesday starting chilly but dry maybe chance Tuesday night frost, then from the SW moving NE during Wednesday further very wet and mild weather to experience, windy as well- similar to Monday night early Tuesday.

That is the way it looks for... Now and through next 7 days.

Well, the 80s and 90s saw many an easterly - deep cold, none of this "will it snow or not" rubbish. Yes, SSWs were involved with some (but not all) of these events... there's more to it than that though, as we've not had a deep cold easterly for 19 years.

Put it another way, SSWs are not the be all and end all. However, they do have the potential to "shake things up" synoptically and as such it's no wonder people will look out for them!

More interesting stats would be:

1) In the UK what is the percentage of winters which are colder than average?

2) In years which an SSW occurs what is the percentage of UK winters which are colder than average?

About 15 years ago the big thing was predicting the NAO signal for the winter ahead. From recollection UCL / Benfield Hazard used to produce a forecast for it and there was quite a lot of interest and 'excitement' at the time. The science may been top notch but had the product had commercial value I suspect it would still be produced today. The analogy with the application of SSWs to forecasting isn't perfect but there are similarities. 

I dont agree with that.  Weve had deep cold many times in the last 19 yrs.  on a number of occasions if i remember correctly.  2007/8 a good example.

What is different is the level of information we are all exposed to.  Which alludes to the previous point, SSWs are just another thing for model watches to stress over.

Also - when people say, for example,  "we've never had snowfall or cold or eastlery for xx years, it grates on me.  From personal memory i dont remember such cold spells people call out all the time - yes 2010 stands out, but locally it wasnt that bad. 1996 for me was worse, but prior to that and after that ive not seen much worse - Locally.... 

and thats my point, we live in a world with global and national weather information, but we still only feel the weather impacts locally.  ie you compare what people get up and down the country and conclude that a cold spell wasnt that good - when infact what you got was probably on par with what you could expect to get for your location.

People away from hilly areas expecting anything more than an inch of snow, and a handful (if theyre lucky ) frosts in a winter is just bonkers.  Most of you have lived in this country for a length of time to know snow and cold  is an extreme weather event on the whole.

Just because a cold spell didnt deliver to your locality, doesnt mean the spell hasnt been harsh.

This cold spell for example had temps down to -12 in parts, and -8 in fairly rural parts of the southern midlands.  Thats pretty notable. ME - i saw -0.1*c the other day.... but i still note this as quite a decent cold spell for our shores, as the cold weather lasted more than 48 hrs.  Thats can be considered relatively rare event.