As alluded to in my earlier ninja post, the ECM was completely unsupported this morning - it went off on one.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Unless we get a few runs in a row showing the same scenario, or it picks up some support, it's not really worth taking much notice of.

I didn't

There remains very little to support the idea that colder conditions will increase in frequency and severity towards mid-month, but of course mid-month is beyond most NWP so let's say rather towards week 2 of February.

Agreed - I've never taken much notice of solitary runs.  I think most of us look at the main models and the ensemble output over several runs.

Actually the ECM 00z Op is in line with the ensemble mean and GFS Op out to Day 8. Even at Day 9 it has only dropped into the lower quartile.  

Looking at the spread charts you can see that an area of greater uncertainty tracks east across northern Scotland and on into southern Scandinavia, associated with the timing of the progression of the LP that exits the Eastern Seaboard and end up over the Baltic States by Day 7.  After that it settles down a little but a large area centred to our west becomes a massive question mark by Day 10.

That of course is where the Op slides a LP ESE under a weak upper ridge whilst the mean has a shallow low pressure area.  So, very little support, you would conclude for the Op evolution at the end.

GEFS6z look to have rolled back with little cold appearing in the south.

Stronger stratosphere warming on the 12z GFS compared to the 6z:

Loving the UKMO T144:

Shame it's the 144 though

Better showing up on the UKMO 144hr chart than appearing on the GFS 384hr chart!

Very true David!

Everything is too far ahead in the reliable timeframe - what will happen is nearer the time SSW will be severely diluted and Azores High will return - it always happens every winter - that charts with promise get cancelled or shunted - remember Gavin P spectacular winter update video before he went off because of his dad -as we live in a country that is crap for winter weather

Great for you Mike but poor for us going forward, LP is going to break through the raised pressure in the Atlantic. I can't see any changes to the zonal pattern around the corner though of course mid-Feb, which everyone is hanging their hats on now is still two weeks plus away.

We have no way of knowing yet whether or not the SW/SSW will do us any favours or no, nor do we know how strong it will be assuming it happens as forecast.

My advice is simply to wait and see. As long as the MetO still believe there may be changes afoot in mid-February, I for one don't believe that we've seen the last of the sort of winter weather that many here crave. Some people a month ago thought that January would be almost a carbon copy of December for wetness and mildness. It hasn't been a classic winter month for sure, but at least we've seen some cold this month, unlike December!

Despite what I said earlier, today's GFS12z brings the -5C line farther south. Be interesting to see if this is supported by the next few runs.

ECM pretty similar to GFS up to T144 and similar to its 00z run too. The moment of diversion was 168. Will know very soon.

Very interesting

ECM still off on one? Or the start of a new trend in the models?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016012712/ECH1-168.GIF?27-0 

ECM 168...

Some of the posters this morning may want to switch to scrambled eggs tomorrow morning

A cold flow for ALL

http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

How about that for consistency?