Yes, the potential has been flagged for a few days now, looking ahead. Clearly, devil in the detail but in broad terms, snow could well occur further south at times compared to (most) recent weeks.

IF discussing Southerly tracking LP's next week

The current position of the PV favours a strong westerly flow of maritime air and it is this which could negate any potential effect from the ongoing SSW.  This current SSW is due to peak in the next week or so and it looks like record warm temperatures in the polar stratosphere.  bearing in mind that the effects of an SSW from its peak can take a few weeks to fully materialise there is still much to play for for those favouring cold.  To take full advantage of this recording warming a split in the PV would be very welcome if not essential to turn this winter around.

Entertaining reading today

Simply put, there are many fluctuations and possible scenarios on the table and if I'm honest, I think even the pros should be a little more vague because the current drivers are such that anything could happen.

Just as each operational and control from each model can vary substantially, so do their ensemble suites. This isn't always the case but it is clear to me that the longer term outlook is very uncertain. This is why the MetO extended outlooks are often vague... allowing for many options. It may defeat the object of a LRF but it is what it is. The weather is simply too dynamic to forecast beyond 5 days with any degree of certainty.

The trouble with the SSW is that it's looking to be 'minor' which means all it does is displace the stratospheric vortex. In this case that's from Siberia on day 4 to Greenland by day 6. We'd have fared better without it, perhaps very much so, as a preceding, less strong warming from the other side of the hemisphere has displaced the vortex almost into Asia as of today.

Even if that had been maintained for just a few days longer before this second event, we'd most likely have seen a decent sort of northerly between now and the end of the weekend, rather than the quickly pushed aside attempt that we've ended up with.

There's still a chance, given the exceptional nature of the event, that the effects of such a strong attack on the vortex in the 4+ day range are being underestimated and that it will achieve the elusive split-vortex outcome, but it's too slim for any forecaster to dare side with when making a professional forecast.

Anyway, some intriguing output from GFS tonight and ECM not far behind, thanks in large part to an area of high pressure nosing into the far-western N. Atlantic from Canada in about 6 days time and interfering with the low pressure systems attempting to storm across the Atlantic (GFS version shown above). 

Unfortunately - as seemingly ever - there looks to be an area of LP near Iceland that could mess with things days 5-6. GFS decides to have it merge with the UK/Scandi trough which leads to a messy situation with enough cold air in the mix to produce a few marginal snow events, even in the far south. ECM on the other hand merges the near-Iceland feature with an upstream area of LP, sparking off a major transfer east of low heights from Canada. Essentially chosen location for the polar vortex reformation is moved into the Atlantic, which would mean a another rough ride for the UK... mad isn't it?

I actually don't believe that this SSW can be classed as minor, considering it is forecast to introduce record high temps into the polar stratosphere.  Its effect on our part of the NH could be described as minor due to the location of the PV.  As for this second event at an SSW as far as I am aware its the same one that started sometime mid to 3rd part of January and has yet to reach its full potential (on the Polar Strat) not our neck of the woods.  Then as I mentioned earlier the next 4 to 6 weeks could be very interesting indeed.

On topic please, and no more personal digs. Any more of these will be deleted without further warning.

And another LP diving to the South, imagine the outcome if all these LP's were sliding across entrenched cold air ............never that lucky

And another one nipping across the South

J F F

Shame the block will be brushed aside

Very unsettled

Control has a cold flow ......could just see wintry ppn around the place

The ECM 12z Ensemble for London shows more of the same, i.e. changeable, wet and windy for the next week. After that it's still a mess with no clear trends, except nothing especially cold is on offer.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Meanwhile, the SSW comes ever closer:

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

Now is not the time to throw in the towel - great uncertainty looms.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A mild SW flow is moving NE across the UK with some rain in association with a set of fronts moving NE. Then a cold front will meander SE across the NW with more rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles has risen to near 7000ft today as warm SW winds cross the UK from the Atlantic. The level falls somewhat from tomorrow to nearer 5000ft as a cold front moves SE. Little snow is expected anywhere across the UK today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled and very windy with rain or squally showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is currently taking a breather as a new surge of energy exits Newfoundland on it's way across the Atlantic to cross the South of the UK and France from the weekend and through the remainder of the run with low pressure close by over or near the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a stormy spell of weather likely across the UK later this week and into next week with severe gale or even locally storm force winds and spells of rain followed by showers, heavy, thundery and perhaps wintry in places with time. Then late next week a quieter period seems likely as a ridge crosses east over all areas followed by a return to more changeable, milder and windy conditions with rain at times especially over the North and West.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is virtually identical in theme with gales and heavy rain at times the most common theme over the two weeks with a drier interlude late next week and with a short period when the emphasis of the strongest winds and rain revert to the NW after the ridge before returning to all areas again by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters show a large majority of members maintaining Atlantic Westerlies likely in two weeks time with Low pressure to the NW and High to the SW. 25% of members do show more of a NW'ly flow with a cooler and showery flow down over the UK. No members show anything dramatically cold this morning

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows deep Low pressure areas transferring East across Northern Britain bringing spells of gales and rain followed by colder showery weather with the showers turning increasingly wintry next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a complex deep Low pressure based pattern across the UK with gales and heavy rain bands then showers affecting all of the UK over the weekend and the start of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows wet and very windy weather too throughout the next 10 days with just the chance of a drier day or two as weak ridges between weather systems pass through. Late in the run a hint of something a little colder affecting parts of the North and East of the UK look likely as winds turn ESE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows incessantly windy and unsettled conditions from the weekend and through next week as pressure stays low and winds stay often very strong. Some colder weather is shown next week with some of the rain and showers turning wintry over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today shows the same theme as the rest with a good week to 10 days of deeply unsettled weather with Low pressure areas crossing over the UK through the period with spells of rain and showers for all with some of it turning more and more wintry with time as colder air becomes entrained within the low pressure complex over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows an unsettled pattern still across the UK in 10 days with the Jet stream to the South of the UK and by the angle of Low pressure shown entering the UK from the NW it looks like some members may be suggesting ESE moving Low pressure enhancing the risk of some cold air in the vicinity of the UK at times with some snow possible over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to indicate total Atlantic domination over the period today with maybe some colder air in the mix later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.9 pts to UKMO at 89.6 pts and GFS at 88.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.2 pts to 66.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 51.3 pts to 48.2 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   The weather has turned milder again today as we enter another 24-48hr long warm sector of weather across the UK. Some rain and drizzle looks likely for some before things begin to turn more lively from Saturday with probably some of the most volatile weather across the largest swathe of the UK this Winter so far. The Jet Stream bringing this change is on it's way South of the UK and while it again becomes very strong it is going to power up some very deep and active Low pressure areas which look like crossing the UK at times thereafter.  Each one of these will bring very heavy rain followed by squally showers and these could be the type that brings everything but the kitchen sink variety with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible as we move through next week. Winds could also be disruptive at times with gale or severe gales at times in locations yet to be determined but all areas are at risk. Then after next week things look only marginally better if at all as hints of a drier and brighter day or two towards next week is still hinted at from some output before the Atlantic powers back in thereafter with the return of wind and rain for many. There is a saying called 'February Fill Dyke' and I have a feeling many a dyke will be filled with heavy rain over the next week or two and flooding issues could be a problem for some through the period with yet again only transient snowfall looking feasible at times. In fact through the next two weeks there is still no sign of a calming of the Jet Stream to a state that can break us out of this mobile pattern and something more High pressure based and colder let alone increasing any risk of significant frost or snowfall.      

Next Update Friday February 5th 2016 from 09:00

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016020406/gfsnh-1-156.png?6

deep cold pool over much of the US and north atlantic.

In the absence of HLB, might be the only way to get some wintriness from southerly tracking lows

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016020406/gfsnh-0-234.png?6

potential for some disruptive snow. Is this the effects of the warming perhaps aiding amplification?