yes there is some monster swell forecast for the next few days, peaking monday down here at 28ft.....biggest swell this winter coinciding with spring tides and 74mph (gusting) onshore wind.  that's why i love living on the coast.

incidentley amber warning out today for rain, the ground is saturated and runofff from fields will lead to alot of localised flooding today, working on the land is very difficult atm and getting about with a quad is impossible in some areas.  i have never know a winter like it, i cannot remember having 2 dry days in a row since mid oct.

Early Spring from the ECM? Many would welcome the dryness anyway.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Day 10

Though does tie in with the Met forecast

Well the Strat roller coaster begins:

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

Will it rescue the fag end of a winter which has been every bit as bad as the 2013-14 horror?

Perhaps we will get some frost and snow in March.

You must have missed recent days then, the 0z has HP ridging from 216, recent runs have seen constant LP's deep into FI

We are relying on your optimism MM , dont let us down

You'd like to think this will help a few weeks down the line

From 222 ridging is shown coming into the South and staying for a while, this hasn't been an option on previous runs

Yes FI but its there to see

Extent of the cold over the US is impressive

Trouble is Doc it's only 2 years sine the last relentless zonal winter of 2013/14 although that at least did start with a cool, dry spell in December.

I still think we will get a mild, dry spell later in February, strongly zonal winters have a tendency for drier spells from mid February onwards, 1993 being a classic example of this. For once I think ECM is on the money this morning with a high pressure influence from the south at day 10 and I think that is very feasible.

All this is just pattern matching from previous zonal winters but to be honest this has proved a better guide this winter than the 'jam tomorrow' back loaded winter theme of the MetO LRF's.

So far it's Andy's WIO forecast: 1 v MetO Feb Cold Spell: 0

As for colder weather I think we have to look to March but even then I suspect it will be fleeting.

Andy

N Midlands northwards could well wee some snow at the back end of the week, something to watch

To be honest I think that some northern parts won't have to wait that long, midweek at the leaves but not amounting to much Story of the winter so far. I'd welcome mild and dry or settled weather as much as cold and very snowy. Neither look especially likely in the foreseeable future based on this morning's output.

My memory of that December is that the first half of it was often fairly mild here, and that lasted up until the start of the very unsettled spell in mid-month which went on virtually unabated until mid-February 2014.

On topic: As for the present situation, let's hope the ECM is onto something with it's suggestion os a more settled spell at 240hrs. It has some support from GFS although the latter shows the HP being squeezed into the continent under pressure for LP systems to the north. Personally I'm desperate to see a dry spell now, even if it isn't of an especially cold type.

Horrendous stuff this morning from the NWP, and so it goes on. The 4 weeks of zonality that I was speculating on will be exceeded, once again 

Sorry, I wasn't referring to lala land.

February 1993 was anticyclonic from the off, it ended on a wintry note when the high westwards and allowed a northerly flow months end.

From what I've read, its not likely to help us at all - it's more likely to be a displacement of the vortex to a position poor for us.

More interestingly from a PPOV is whether we're now in a period when the chances of cold winters are reduced and warmer summers increased. My 'gut feel' is we stand a better than average chance of heatwave conditions this summer.  

That's my view of it John, ultimately it isn't going to get rid of the low heights to the NW and that's the crux for us.

In the meantime we have things like this to endure or analyse...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

And, colours can be deceptive, this could (if it actually materialised, which is unikely) be one of the coldest nights of the winter http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif 

9 days is hardly that

But take your point

Good luck with that