Yes the latter stage's look very cold

Some severe frost's if it comes off

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016022112/ECU1-216.GIF?21-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016022112/ECU0-216.GIF?21-0 

ECM 12z looks cold and mostly dry to me with some sharp overnight frosts.

So ECM has the Euro low further NW than UKMO and GFS. This brings precipitation into play but with the risk of rain instead of snow for the south. Yet as troubling as the 850's appear, the surface situation may be rather more promising; the chart for Friday shows some air that has arrived from the Arctic becoming very much stagnated over France - a recipe for a very cold night there and with the UK involved to some extent too. This is good for removing moisture and locking it away (frost), so producing that low-dew point air that makes continental imports so useful for snow events in winter.

That then gets shunted NW as the low slips in and develops and so it would be a matter of how well the low level cold mitigated the warmer air being brought up from the south. Some scope I should think for the warmer air to ride up above the cold air - a freezing rain risk for the south coast perhaps?

A quick return to an easterly flow as opposed to southeasterly is critical for the far south to avoid a transition to rain. 

Of course all of this may well be irrelevant if the low ends up where GFS and UKMO have it. Then you're looking for enough instability in the flow to produce snow showers but by day you'd need a great deal of them, with a lot of cloud in between, to overcome the solar input.

Longer term is looking promising if you like unusually cold conditions, provided we take GFS' blowing up of the Canadian vortex segment to be a load of dog logs - which I'm inclined to do given the lack of strat. support, MJO support, or Met Office support for that matter!

Really the gradual fizzling out of low heights in Canada that ECM shows makes a lot more sense:

The theme at 30 hPa remains one of a displaced vortex to end Feb and then a fatal blow during the first week of March:

Some uncertainty with the timing of that second part though. Could be up to 5 days sooner or later in time - but the preceding displacement looks good enough for height rises NW of the UK as the Met Office (via Fergie at least)/EC-32/GloSea5 strongly suggest.

Its a stunner no doubt but is it going to snow lots of uncertainty.

Looks cold but max highs of 5c aren't that great.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Good job it's 240 hours away then  

Yes what a strange post just watched the Beeb forecast looks pretty good to me . Towards the end JH mentions the threat off eastelys and snow . 

It'll sure make a pleasant change from near endless rain, as has been the story of this sorry excuse for a winter!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022118/gfsnh-0-126.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022118/gfsnh-1-126.png?18

Some hard frosts I'd imagine

Feeling v cold in the Easterly breeze

Much better for cold air, very cold across the UK

Here in the Paradiski area (Les Arcs / La Plagne) where I spend half of my Winter it's actually been a pretty snowy February so far all the way down to lower village level at around 1300 metres. It was a poor start to the Season but has slowly improved and snow depths are now around average. Mild today and to start tomorrow but gradually cooling down with snow at most levels by Tuesday and from then on for most of the week.

JFF  - LOL.

So it misses the UK entirely but moves into northern Spain/ Southern France then up through Switzerland and all of France towards Holland and Belgium etc etc.

"You can not be serious" - John McEnroe

For contrasting purposes: - Low pressure over the UK & Ireland!

Nice output this morning next weekend looks to be increasing the chances of some snowfall. Can we get lucky?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

UK and GFS virtually singing from the same sheet

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850birmingham0.png?cb

A good agreement on cold for several days

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A weak cold front is moving very slowly South across Southern Britain with colder air following on behind from the NW to lie across all of the British Isles by tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK is falling across the South to lie between 1500ft-3500ft across all of the UK by the end of tomorrow with this level anticipated to be maintained for the majority of this week Wintry showers will pepper Northern and Eastern hills and coasts at times.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is shown to trough strongly to lie well to the South of the UK by the end of the coming week in association with Low pressure there. Later in the period there is some suggestion of the flow migrating back North towards the UK but in an undulating form.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a couple of week with rather cold weather as the pattern of synoptics change to that we have seen of late. Low pressure develops to the South of the UK next weekend following a benign and quiet spell of weather this week with light winds through the run up to that with a few wintry showers and frosty nights. Then some rain, sleet or snow could affect the South for a time in a week with a very raw ENE wind. Then as we move further out the weather reverts to more changeable conditions again in mostly NW winds with rain and strong winds at times with conditions largely staying rather cold for much of the time allowing some snowfall on hills of the North.

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today follows a similar route to the Operational with a slow return of Atlantic West or NW winds in Week 2 with rain at times following a week to 10 days of rather cold weather especially in the South where some rain, sleet or snow could occur a week from now in a cold and raw ENE wind for a time early next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today suggest NW winds the most likely position we find ourselves in two weeks time. There are varying degrees of whether such a flow is cyclonic or anticyclonic based dependent on how close depressions to the NE are or how close the High pressure to the SW lies in relation to the UK in what appears likely to be rather cold conditions overall.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure slowly sinking South across the UK later this week and ending up to the South of the UK next weekend. In the interim period a lot of quiet and benign rather cold conditions seem likely with frost at night before some rain or perhaps sleet moves in from the West towards the weekend leading to a cold and windy weekend especially in the South with rain, sleet and hill snow a risk here while the North could stay cold and frosty.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today shows quiet conditions through the working week with no more than occasional wintry showers in a slack North or NW flow this week and these mostly focused towards Northern and Eastern coasts. Fronts are shown to be approaching the West of the UK by the weekend as Low pressure develops and slips South to the West of the UK come Saturday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows a lot of cold and eventually windy weather as Low pressure migrates to the South of the UK late this week and more especially next weekend and in the South where a strong and very raw East to NE wind develops for a time with some rain or snow in places. The NE flow is then cut off briefly as a ridge pushes up from the SW with frosts developing for many before further cold and unsettled weather is shown to move down from the NW again next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks broadly similar in theme to the rest with the Low pressure areas slipping South of the UK by next weekend before filling up as a ridge develops from the SW across the UK by the start of next week cutting off the flow and introducing cold and frosty weather replacing the cold and raw conditions across the South next weekend. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning follows the theme of the rest too with a spell of cold weather lasting for much of the period. Through this week a cold Northerly is the main ingredient and although the wind will be quite light some wintry showers will pepper the coasts at times and rain will threaten the South at first and again through next weekend as a raw NE flow develops in the South for a time perhaps with a little hill snow in places. This is then displaced next week as somewhat less cold WNW winds develop for a time with rain and strong winds gradually pushing SE across the UK with cold air threatening again towards the end of the period towards the second weekend behind the Low pressure bringing the milder conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today strongly supports the NW flow hinted at by other output too for the start of Spring with the likelihood of chilly NW winds bringing rather cold weather to many areas to start March with rain at times falling as snow at times on higher ground as the pattern of High pressure well to the SW and Low pressure over and to the NE of Britain establishes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme is for a rather cold couple of weeks with a lot of dry weather to begin with before more unsettled conditions developing later in the period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 92.0 pts to UKMO at 90.0 pts and GFS at 88.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 71.8 pts to 65.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 54.6 pts to ECM's 54.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Some good consolidation between the models this morning on the process of how colder air than of late establishes across the UK this week and then looks set to remain in one shape or form for some time. We currently have a weak cold front straddling the South of the UK which is set to clear tomorrow and set up a spell of slack and cold Northerly winds with some wintry showers near Northern and Eastern coasts and hills and more importantly give rise to some sharp night frosts under clear skies. Then towards the weekend pressure will of fallen somewhat across the UK and with troughs trying to edge in from the West some cloud, rain and hill snow could affect the West and SW for a while towards the weekend. As the parent depression bringing this weather develops further and lies to the South of the UK a spell of raw and cold ENE winds in the South will develop and there could be a little rain or snow in extreme Southern counties for a time. Then next week shows a strong build of pressure ridging up from the SW and though cold with frosts at night it will feel less so as the winds will of died. Looking further ahead still the models are pretty much in agreement that further rather cold and unsettled weather will move down over the UK wth rain and snow at times in winds settling strong NW'ly. This theme has strong support from both the GFS Cluster data and the ECM 10 day Mean Chart this morning which means it has a good chance of verifying and falls in line with the Met Office predictions of late too. So there we have it a couple of weeks of cold weather to come, something that I have all too rarely said this Winter. However, for those seeking snowfall things look less exciting and while there are some chances of this over the period and not just in the North widespread snow events look unlikely with the hills of the North as usual the most likely locations to see this late in the period as the NW'ly flow strengthens then. Frosts look much more common with someone somewhere having frosts most nights through the period. So for now at least Spring weather looks on hold which in itself is a turnaround on recent weather patterns and things may not feel too bad as the days are now lengthening by 2mins/day night and morning at this time of the year.           

Next Update Tuesday February 23rd 2016 from 09:00

Thanks Martin.

Cheers Martin - a clear concise and honest appraisal as usual. 'A chance of rain or hill snow' is more likely to be nearer the mark than some of the predictions I've seen elsewhere. With the cold pool to the NE only just recovering from being blitzed last week, and surface temperatures across the Pole way above normal, it will take a huge amount of luck and timing to get lying snow to parts of lowland Britain which have not seen any yet this winter. 

A week is a long time in the weather world  though so let's not be too hasty on detail 🤓

Thank you Martin for some cold outlook.. Will spring be slow in coming then. 

It is the old M4 corridor issue - marginal events are often the best for the West Midlands and Wales, even though south of the M4 might get nothing better than cold rain unfortunately. I have seen our deepest snowfalls here under such conditions - but being marginal, it is unfortunately rare - all it takes is 100 miles one way or the other and we miss it.