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Robertski
Saturday, March 12, 2016 12:22:31 AM


 


how you can state March is barley a spring month when the sun has as much energy in as it does in September, and the day's become longer then nights, I find this baffling. πŸ˜•


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


I take it you are being funny.


 


I'm not sure I remember a September we had settling snow in the Chilterns, but plenty of times in March. Like I said, barely a Spring month.

picturesareme
Saturday, March 12, 2016 1:37:30 AM


 


 


I take it you are being funny.


 


I'm not sure I remember a September we had settling snow in the Chilterns, but plenty of times in March. Like I said, barely a Spring month.


Originally Posted by: Robertski 


I'm being serious!


perhaps your not aware that snow falls in other seasons other the winter??  

Brian Gaze
Saturday, March 12, 2016 7:46:17 AM

Steady as she goes this morning. Things perhaps taking a turn for the worse in the run up to Easter.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Whether Idle
Saturday, March 12, 2016 8:15:46 AM

With regard to the spring sunshine and March snows and cold argument, both protagonists are of course correct.  March and April see the thermal lag effect sometimes in extreme relief, whilst inexorably day by day the solar input goes from strength to strength.  Its a fascinating battle between these two effects that this time of the year lends itself to.  Synoptics such as those on display tomorrow show the sun powering up in the north and west whilst Kent will suffer the effects of thermal lag.  See here:



 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Scandy 1050 MB
Saturday, March 12, 2016 8:54:16 AM


Steady as she goes this morning. Things perhaps taking a turn for the worse in the run up to Easter.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yes does look like Easter will be unsettled which is quite often the case - no sign of anything extreme cold wise in this morning's models though, granted that is FI however and Easter still a long way away in model terms so subject to change. For the near term looks a very dry week ahead and in the sun it has been very pleasant even in the easterly breeze down here - works for me.

doctormog
Saturday, March 12, 2016 9:14:55 AM
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2162.gif 

It's a sign, albeit a small one but the 00z GFS operational run has a very large area of very cold air just to the north in the 8 to 10 day period. Probably just a blip but worth watching.
Robertski
Saturday, March 12, 2016 9:53:14 AM


 


I'm being serious!


perhaps your not aware that snow falls in other seasons other the winter??  


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


You compared September with March which is a mistake, March can produce great winter conditions, September does not, there is no argument to be made.


Talking about the strength of the Sun at these timea of year is irrelevant to weather that occurs.


 


You have no argument.

briggsy6
Saturday, March 12, 2016 10:17:48 AM


 


I'm being serious!


perhaps your not aware that snow falls in other seasons other the winter??  


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Down South, it doesn't seem to fall in any season these days! Thanks to AGW snow seems to becoming a distant memory - the synoptics to produce laying snow have to be more extreme and precise with every passing year. 


Location: Uxbridge
Andy Woodcock
Saturday, March 12, 2016 11:30:32 AM

Not much sign of the long anticipated SSW cold spell on this mornings output apart from a vague signal in GFS FI, it really has been over egged and I suspect SSW effects are restricted to winter months when the slowing or reversal of the strong high level westerly winds are all important.


These winds reduce considerably in March anyway so a SSW is far less critical.


The general model outlook is one if dry high pressure with near normal temperatures, in a months time these Synoptics would have given us a fine warm spell but it's just a bit early to guarantee high pressure related sunshine and winter like anticyclonic gloom is still likely across many areas.


Still, it's all a big improvement on the winter but I can't help thinking we are wasting some excellent summer Synoptics.


Andy


Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
picturesareme
Saturday, March 12, 2016 11:50:49 AM


 


 


You compared September with March which is a mistake, March can produce great winter conditions, September does not, there is no argument to be made.


Talking about the strength of the Sun at these timea of year is irrelevant to weather that occurs.


 


You have no argument.


Originally Posted by: Robertski 


With regards to March sun strength, and day length being comparable to that of September, what has temperature & temperature lag go to do with that statement?? Absolutely nothing!! September temperatures are pretty much a continuation of summer.


Your argument against the sun not being the same as that of September in March, saying that March must be a winter month because it snows is very bizarre. Snow has fallen in all 4 seasons in lowland  (-200m) England... And spring for the United Kingdom is known to be snowier then winter - but it's still bleeding spring!  


The whole point is when looking at 850's and predicted temperatures at this time of year and going foreword one has to factor in increased solar heating now. If you are stuck under a band of cloud & showers at this time of year with 850's of -1C then it's likely to feel cold, but if your on the sunny side it will likely feel very pleasant with temps in double figures. 

picturesareme
Saturday, March 12, 2016 11:55:14 AM
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2162.gif 

It's a sign, albeit a small one but the 00z GFS operational run has a very large area of very cold air just to the north in the 8 to 10 day period. Probably just a blip but worth watching.


is that chart not dragging up warm winds from the south for the UK though? 

Sevendust
Saturday, March 12, 2016 12:13:25 PM


 is that chart not dragging up warm winds from the south for the UK though? 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

I assume the chart has updated to the 6z which as is usually the case for GFS at that range is completely different

picturesareme
Saturday, March 12, 2016 12:34:58 PM


I assume the chart has updated to the 6z which as is usually the case for GFS at that range is completely different


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Yes sorry my error 😳 Doc does say 00z and that chart as you've pointed out is 6z.

doctormog
Saturday, March 12, 2016 12:58:37 PM


 


Yes sorry my error 😳 Doc does say 00z and that chart as you've pointed out is 6z.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Yes, as Dave says it has updated from the 00z run (which was the most recent one when I posted my comment). I'm not suggesting that cold or wintry weather likely rather that it is still an option (albeit a minority one) on the charts. Ne'er cast a clout and and all that malarkey. In a more realistic timescale I am hoping for a few breaks in the cloud up here tomorrow with a Föhn effect and temperatures into the low teens. Not asking much I know but the Synoptics seem right: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn301.gif 


picturesareme
Saturday, March 12, 2016 1:27:41 PM


 


Yes, as Dave says it has updated from the 00z run (which was the most recent one when I posted my comment). I'm not suggesting that cold or wintry weather likely rather that it is still an option (albeit a minority one) on the charts. Ne'er cast a clout and and all that malarkey. In a more realistic timescale I am hoping for a few breaks in the cloud up here tomorrow with a Föhn effect and temperatures into the low teens. Not asking much I know but the Synoptics seem right: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn301.gif 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


that looks a beauty that chart 😊 15C should be possible for the right spots in the Scotland.  I'm also hoping for some fohn effect over the coming week 😏

moomin75
Saturday, March 12, 2016 2:06:02 PM
Agree with Andy here. People here often say you can't "waste synoptics" and "weather doesn't have a memory" but in all honesty how often have we seen exactly this? Wasted synoptics followed by a dreadful set of charts in the summer and vice versa. March 2012 was one of many examples where we had wonderful summer like charts in March giving us some glorious weather and we all know what followed that summer.

April 2007 was another and I'm sure there are many other examples.Β 
I do fear for this summer with a possible rapidly developing La Nina. Another 2007 maybe?

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
NickR
Saturday, March 12, 2016 2:09:39 PM


 


With regards to March sun strength, and day length being comparable to that of September, what has temperature & temperature lag go to do with that statement?? Absolutely nothing!! September temperatures are pretty much a continuation of summer.


Your argument against the sun not being the same as that of September in March, saying that March must be a winter month because it snows is very bizarre. Snow has fallen in all 4 seasons in lowland  (-200m) England... And spring for the United Kingdom is known to be snowier then winter - but it's still bleeding spring!  


The whole point is when looking at 850's and predicted temperatures at this time of year and going foreword one has to factor in increased solar heating now. If you are stuck under a band of cloud & showers at this time of year with 850's of -1C then it's likely to feel cold, but if your on the sunny side it will likely feel very pleasant with temps in double figures. 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I very much doubt that spring is snowier than winter for the UK!


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
picturesareme
Saturday, March 12, 2016 2:34:13 PM


 


I very much doubt that spring is snowier than winter for the UK!


Originally Posted by: NickR 


im fairly sure I that your more likely to see snow falling in March or April then you are December or January. I'm sure even read somewhere on the met office that April part.

Zubzero
Saturday, March 12, 2016 3:57:03 PM


 


im fairly sure I that your more likely to see snow falling in March or April then you are December or January. I'm sure even read somewhere on the met office that April part.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


You can view the average maps 


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/ 


March is similar to December for sleet/snow falling,though is a big drop in numbers of days for April.

David M Porter
Saturday, March 12, 2016 7:43:55 PM

Agree with Andy here. People here often say you can't "waste synoptics" and "weather doesn't have a memory" but in all honesty how often have we seen exactly this? Wasted synoptics followed by a dreadful set of charts in the summer and vice versa. March 2012 was one of many examples where we had wonderful summer like charts in March giving us some glorious weather and we all know what followed that summer.

April 2007 was another and I'm sure there are many other examples. 
I do fear for this summer with a possible rapidly developing La Nina. Another 2007 maybe?

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


The last I heard was that the current El Nino could last well into this year albeit weakened somewhat, with a La Nina possibly coming along in late 2016. I haven't heard any predictions for La Nina to come along anytime in the next few months.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
mildmildwest
Saturday, March 12, 2016 9:45:19 PM

.....and back to the charts


Take a look at this beauty 


 


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_324_2mtmp.png?cb=500


 

Robertski
Saturday, March 12, 2016 11:45:09 PM


 


You can view the average maps 


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/ 


March is similar to December for sleet/snow falling,though is a big drop in numbers of days for April.


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Hence my comment that March is barely a spring month


 


Any chance of the charts throwing up a cold set up is still of interest. Seems to me that with the orientation of this high we may get another shot of something more wintry in nature, if only frosty.

Gandalf The White
Saturday, March 12, 2016 11:47:47 PM

Back to model output.....


ECM 12z ensemble for London shows a predominantly cold picture for the next 10 days with only two days up to average for mid-March.  It's notable that the ensemble mean and the Op are in remarkably tight agreement until Day 10.  GFS disappears into La La land and has no support from the ECM suite at all beyond day 10/



The good news is the very dry outlook



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Azza07
Sunday, March 13, 2016 8:02:42 AM

The ECM brings in some colder air from the east this morning -8 uppers in the east . 

doctormog
Sunday, March 13, 2016 8:23:23 AM
A rather dry outlook across the model output this morning. It does look a bit cool in parts at times, perhaps more so in the longer term. Before then, today's SWly drift should hopefully cause a nice FΓΆhn effect in some places today.

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