Indeed - my attempt at irony was as feeble as this winter has been

I thought you were making a conscious effort to be in summer mode

Only another 3 months :)

The only thing of note to report is that the degree to which it turns unsettled has maybe eased off from 'very unsettled' to 'quite unsettled'.

Not much else to report but I felt sorry that this thread hadn't had a post since yesterday afternoon.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge across Southern Britain will collapse later today as troughs of Low pressure cross the UK from the West tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 5000-7000ft across the UK before falling towards 4000ft across Northern and western Britain behind the passage of the cold front tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and often windy with spells of rain at times for all in temperatures closer to average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will strengthen in the coming days with the flow moving NE across the UK by the weekend. This flow then sinks South of the UK over the coming week before moving somewhat further North across Southern Britain in the second week with more of an undulating flow setting up late on in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure becoming in control of the UK weather over the next few weeks. In the first week Low pressure will lie in a position close to the UK with showery spells with longer spells of rain and strong winds too. Then after a brighter and drier interlude towards the middle of next week under a transient ridge Low pressure is shown to return with the heaviest rain from this likely over the North and west with temperatures close to average maintained throughout.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a similar theme to the Operational Run with low pressure in control throughout. However, having said that the end of the period is shown to see colder air slip down from the North as pressure rises very High over Greenland introducing the chance of some wintry showers and sharp Spring frosts in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a very mixed pattern again with Low pressure in close proximity to the UK from many members with a 40% majority indicating a centre of this to the East and SE of the UK which would mean cool and unsettled weather the more likely pattern across the UK then.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled period coming up as Low pressure to the NW extends it's influence to all parts of the UK by the weekend with spells of rain or heavy showers for all with some brief drier and brighter spells too in temperatures near to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show unsettled and windy conditions across the UK starting from tomorrow. then through the weekend further wet and windy conditions will spread east over all areas on Saturday with strong and blustery SW winds for many.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning takes a course towards very unsettled conditions with rain and showers for all with gales too at times. This weather pattern remains in place throughout the rest of the period with temperatures close to average at sustained dry weather very much at a premium.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a very unsettled spell of weather developing across the UK over the Easter weekend and persisting through the early and mid parts of next week ending with a deep and vigorous Low pressure lying across the South of the UK with rain and showers for all through the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning continues to look very unsettled with Low pressure maintaining control with rain and showers for all areas on each day. A short brighter period is hinted at late next week but Low pressure then to the NW maintains influence across most areas to end the period in near to average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today has offered no change to what has been shown for days now with Low pressure to the NW of the UK with a trough across the UK and a Jet Stream too far South to be ideal for the UK in delivering anything other than spells of rain and showers at times in temperatures close to or just a little below average for early April.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 86.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.9 pts to 58.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 45.2 pts to 44.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The message from the models this morning is as underlined as ever in bringing unsettled and windy conditions across the UK tomorrow and following a brief break on Good Friday the weather is shown by all models to go downhill rapidly on Saturday leading into a sustained spell of wet and windy weather over the UK for the coming week or two. There is odd intervals when drier and brighter conditions may be obtained but all in all the prospects remain Low pressure based with strong winds from the SW likely at times too. Temperatures will probably be close to average but the strong winds at times will make it feel distinctly cool especially when it is raining. Longer term there seems little optimism for anything other than maintained unsettled conditions as the Jet Stream stays along way South and spells of rain and showers keep piling in from the Atlantic. GFS offers the only resistance to this as it shows a lot of High pressure building at Northern latitudes with a colder regime later but if this evolved it could well become drier too with the risks of frosts at night greatly increased. The unfortunate part is that we are now entering April soon and many would be expecting a solid drift into sunshine and warmth this morning to replace the dismal cloudy and benign Winter just passed but I'm afraid it's more of the same over the coming few weeks which will make the time of year seem no different to what's gone but on the plus side if the sun does come out between the showers we will be reassured that better conditions may just be around the corner astronomically at least.

Next Update Thursday March 24th 2016 from 09:00

Yep, looks pretty unsettled to me! 

The 12z GFS and UKMO today sustain a often very rainy and at times very mixed sunny intervals and heavy thundery showers with hail in the mix, often quite windy, and A prolonged several days of chilly cold winds and average day- night temperatures for last 5 days of March by the looks of it.

By the end of next week, Thurs/ Friday onwards or in following Weekend Polar Low Vortex Split by Retrogressed High that creates a blocking high over to North and NW UK Iceland and Greenland if GFS 12z is to be believed, Cold winds and Heavy showers with Thunder and hail and some hill snow also on the cards.

I hope the ECMWF model supports the GFS setup, the UKMO similar to it, not that chilly but does turn colder by Monday and Tuesday, Sunday West and NW UK colder but East SE UK less chilly.  Cyclonic winds blowing SW flow early next week then NE flow later on next week.

It could be a chilly cold and showery start to April, but we need ECMWF ENS and Operational runs to back up the GFS it is putting up a good show as far as Meridional NAD Shutdown event is concerned.

This still all to hope cast on as the Outputs day in day out change positioning of the placing of Polar Low's and Jetstream gyres waves flop and drag up left or right etc they do tend to indicated what can happen but they change to show us different outcomes in the small scale and medium scale impacts etc.

Polar Vortex: UK PV moving through North NE Atlantic and NE Canada West NW Greenland PV Low then moves quickly NE then dive SE with major N Atlantic to Greenland Blocking High, mid to far West NW Atlantic Low elongate SE well under blocking Greenland High, and Biscay SE UK Low West Europe PV Low and Arctic Low results from Iceland NE Tracking Low with Northerly flow across far NE Atlantic and to North Europe for a time, with cold NE flow from Arctic Sea move SW from West N Nirwegian Sea.

This GFS is showing that is a possible setup but chopping and changing by it and ECMWF- UKMO by next week Thursday- Saturday is up in the air and this is very interesting but we cannot take it as simple - next 144 hours once go, then watch what is predicted!.

😎🌞💤😊.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/192_mslp850.png?cb=691

ECM has an assertive ridge pushing NE from the Azores at the turn of the month, that is at odds with the GFS 12 tendency to have a low drop S allowing the setup of a long-fetch easterly. Either way, not looking particularly settled.

Warmth in April is often a precursor to a poor summer IMHO.  A colder wetter April  may be positive in the longer run.

The Opposing 18z GFS Northwest and North to NE Atlantic Zonal flow, With pockets/ waves of mild air driven by NW and North Atlantic Low Pressure later next Friday through to Sunday. Tuesday to Friday a.m On the Chilly cool side North colder.

Tomorrow's 00z and 12z should tell a better solution outcome etc.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move ESE across the UK today, clearing the East early tomorrow and then followed by a ridge of High pressure crossing East tomorrow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be in the range of 4000-6000ft asl with snow reserved for the summits of Scotland through today before all areas become mostly dry tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled and often windy with spells of rain at times for all in temperatures closer to average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream will surge East to the South of the UK over the coming weekend and start to next week. then later the flow becomes more disorientated in both location and speed as an undulating pattern forms for a time before the flow reverts to an NE or East flow over Northern Britain towards the end of the two week period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the next week or so as very unsettled and often very windy as Low pressure becomes complex and widespread near the UK over the next week. Both Saturday and Easter Monday look very wet and potentially stormy on Monday while at other times it will be bright and showery with hail and thunder possible. Then towards the end of next week a drier spell begins with much more changeable weather in the second week with some dry days and others with a little rain at times especially in the west and South for a time and then in the North as a cold High pressure ridge slips South at some point through the second week. 

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a similar theme to the Operational Run with Low pressure well in control through Week 1 and only slowly losing it's grip in Week 2 with winds then switching more towards the SE and then East with most of the rain in the South and West in Week 2 with a cold Easterly flow developing then with dry conditions affecting the North and NE at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a very unsettled pattern the most likely weather scenario in two weeks time with Low pressure well in control but with the positioning of this very unclear which could have major implications about how things feel at the surface with everything between mild SW winds and cold NE winds shown this morning.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled period coming up as Low pressure to the NW extends it's influence to all parts of the UK over the weekend with spells of rain or heavy showers for all with some brief drier and brighter spells too in temperatures near to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex Low pressure gaining total domination across the UK in the coming days lasting well into the middle of next week at least. All areas will be affected by troughs at times delivering some heavy rain, driven along by strong cyclonic winds.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM looks very disturbed this morning with Low pressure maintaining control on this run throughout the period of 10 days. Low pressure will be to the North or over the UK in the first week with spells of windy Westerly winds and rain or showers at times. Then a change to rather colder conditions look likely from the second weekend, still with rain at times and maybe turning to snow at times over the hills as winds become NE at least for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows Low pressure in control over the coming week filling slowly towards the end of next week but not enough to prevent a spell of wet and potentially very windy weather at times especially over Easter itself easing only gently towards the second weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning shows a typical early Spring setup this morning as March winds combine with April showers at times with some longer spells of rain thrown in for good measure, all because Low pressure dominates throughout mostly positioned up to the NW of the UK next week and indeed over the UK for a time at the Easter weekend with SW or cyclonic winds strong to gale force at times. there appears little change in the overall pattern at the end of the run so this suggests further rain and showers as we move into mid April.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today remains locked as unsettled across the UK with Low pressure likely to lie quite close to the West of the UK with heavy April showers most likely with temperatures average but pleasant enough in the sunshine between the showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 85.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.0 pts to 58.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.2 pts to 42.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  After 10 days or so of fine and benign conditions being prevalent across the UK the weather is on the turn from today as the Jet Stream strengthens and is carried South across Southern Europe over Easter. Low pressure on the cold side of the Jet flow will form some quite powerful Low pressure over the latter stages of the Easter weekend and start to next week near to the UK with the risk of heavy rain and showers along with severe gales a very real possibility although temperatures at the surface given a predominant SW flow will be respectable numerically. Then as we move out of Easter and through next week changes look likely to be slow with further rain and showers through the week with some drier and brighter weather in between. Later next week Low pressure may fill and realign in positions as some model shows pressure building to the North and NE with a shift of emphasis of rain towards the West and South as colder air to the NE might filter across the UK from the North or East. How this theme develops remains quite elusive at this stage but it has been a factor of many runs recently especially from GFS so will have to be watched with interest over the coming days. If it does evolve a chilly start to April with some wintry showers in places seems possible although at the moment ECM who look forward 10 days doesn't seem to support GFS's findings and maintain wet and Atlantic based winds and conditions under Low pressure to the NW. What no model shows again this morning is any fine, settled and Spring-like temperatures with unsettled at worst and changeable at best the weather pattern that persists throughout the next few weeks along with average or slightly below temperatures looking more likely.

NOTICE. Due to work commitments this is my last report until Tuesday March 29th Have a very happy Easter and keep dry.

Next Update Tuesday March 29th 2016 from 09:00

A few very warm runs appearing in the GEFS0z. Worth keeping an eye. 

JFF of course but I could go for the 0Z parallel

Along with the strong southerly winds on Saturday, I think Sunday night/Monday morning is of more concern for us southern coast softies, looks like a real tomato greenhouse rattler if this latest GFS output is to go by on (the other outputs are showing a similar theme). 



Yet more southerly gales - the one type of weather I seem to be so good at experiencing - and it is my least favourite.

first plume of the year 😍👍🏼

GFS shows signs of a return to a slightly more settled and seasonally average or slightly above average conditions as we move into April.  The ensembles (for Dover shown here) are currently volatile and subject to dramatic changes locally so worth keeping an eye on.

Dynamics regards engagement with the exit region of the jet and consequent bombing to be refined, but Monday's little joker is looking impressive at the moment. A swathe of severe gales likely across the SE.

UKMO warnings will be updated this morning.

Looks particularly hostile early on Monday here