GEFS looking more promising for the Easter weekend.  Too early to be certain of course!

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   High pressure close to NE Scotland will maintain a chilly NE flow across the South with a very weak front crossing West over England and Wales today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be highest in the North of the UK over the next few days with levels around 7000ft-8000ft. In the South the levels is falling behind today's weak cold front to around 3000-4000ft for a time. Apart from snow grains over Welsh hills tomorrow morning there will be no snowfall anywhere.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly dry and bright with some frosts at night. Probably becoming less settled later in the month especially in the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains blocked by a large High to the North and NE of the UK. The theme is for the block to persist diverting the flow well North and South of the UK for the next week or so. Thereafter, the flow focuses on a point to the South of the UK as the block collapses somewhat through week 2

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure continuing to control the weather across the UK over the next week or so as it's centre moves West then South just to the West of the UK. The cool and chilly NE flow will slowly back North or NW and decrease with time but this will also allow a lot of cloud from the Atlantic to slip down across the UK next week. Then as the High pressure declines later the Easter period looks like becoming rather cold and unsettled with showers or longer periods of rain for a time with snow on hills. Post Easter then looks staying chilly but drier again especially over the North and East with any rainfall then looking most likely towards the South and West as pressure builds again to the North.  

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a similar theme over the period although the dynamics of the breakdown around the Easter period result from a slightly different pressure distribution. Nevertheless Low pressure looks like spoiling the Easter period with rain at times and perhaps some snow on hills with bluster winds before somewhat drier weather Post Easter as High pressure builds to the NE again.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show 45% of members suggesting a Scandinavian High pressure area holding sway across the UK in two weeks time as a ridge from it extends down across Southern Britain. There is also a mix of options numerically around 55% of members who show Atlantic Low pressure close to the UK with rain or showers at times and average temperatures.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure situated just to the West of the UK by Day 6 having moved slowly West then South from it's current position just to the NE of the UK. This means that the weather is going to be remaining settled with little in the way of rain but also a lot of cloud at times hence somewhat chilly feeling conditions at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate slow changes over the coming 5 days with cloud amounts the main talking point in an overwhelmingly dry and fine period across the UK as the High responsible shuffles to a position just to the West of the UK by next Sunday. Weak fronts crossing South in the flow will continue to enhance the extent of cloud at times too.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning looks very settled as High pressure looks like maintaining domination across the UK right out to day 10 which includes the start of the Easter weekend. The centre of High pressure will drift West then South before becoming anchored over or just to the West of Ireland next week with a slack Northerly flow across the UK delivering fine and settled weather but with a lot of cloud at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the same fine weather persisting well into next week as High pressure readjusts it's position to a point to the West of the UK by early next week. Pressure is then shown to decline from the North towards midweek with some rain and fronts heading into the UK from the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure moving West then South to the West of the UK early next week with plenty more fine and settled weather if rather cloudy at times for all areas. The keen NE breeze in the South should back Northerly and decrease by the weekend. Then as we move through next week and towards Easter pressure will begin to leak away from the North with the Easter period looking like developing a North/South split in the weather to develops as pressure becomes High over France and Low to the North with Westerly winds for all and rain at times developing across the North and West in particular with average temperatures. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows a Westerly flow across the UK along with the Jet stream. With Low pressure to the North and High pressure more towards a point South and SW of the UK a shift towards some rain at times especially across the North and west is likely over the Easter weekend along with close to average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Things still look unclear as we move towards the Easter period with no real cross model support on any one evolution this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 85.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.7 pts to 59.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 45.1 pts to 44.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS High pressure continues to maintain the focus of attention between the models over the next week or so as it just shuffles around over the next 3-4 days to end up at a point to the West of the UK early next week. All the time this feature stays close to the UK the Atlantic is blocked with the Jet stream diverting bad weather systems well North and South of the UK. A weak northerly flow looks like displacing the cool breeze in the South by the weekend but the NW will become cooler and cloudier by then with all areas seeing a dry and benign weekend with mostly cloudy and cool skies for most. Then next week it's all about how the models try to displace the High to introduce more unsettled conditions as usual towards a Bank Holiday weekend.. However, not to be too much of a pessimist I think there is a 50/50 chance that Easter might turn out OK with no heatwave but nothing alarmist either. GFS is the worst case scenario this morning with rather cold and unsettled Easter weather shown. However, it's Clusters suggest a strong chance of a Scandinavian High affecting the UK while the likes of ECM prefers a Westerly flow across the UK with High pressure close to the South and milder weather with some rain in the North and West as it's message. This is strongly endorsed by the 10 day mean Chart this morning too. So my view is that anyone thinking that there will be a wintry period around Easter may be somewhat disappointed as it is becoming less likely as I think ECM has probably got the right handle on this with the most likely result being a Westerly flow of sorts across the UK with rain at times gradually becoming more widespread later in the Easter weekend in temperatures close to the late March average. So while there will be no barbecues or sunshades likely at Easter there shouldn't be any need for snow shovels and thick thermals either. 

Next Update Thursday March 17th 2016 from 09:00

Let's be honest, how often is it warm enough for a BBQ at Easter anyway in our climate, particularly in a year when Easter falls so early!  A bit like hoping for a double rollover on the Euromillions - it's not going to happen but you can dream I suppose.

Hmm ... try Tue 29th 1800hrs from the GFS06z

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_324_mslp500.png?cb=323

If only that was January!

This morning's 00z GFS, ECMWF and the UKMO appear to show us that it looks quite Blocked, High Pressure in charge, with NNE Europe mid to far side Polar Vortex with Short wave Low's feeding around it, Cooling and Chilling SW Europe NW Africa as well, with Easterly to NE from the West - Creates further cold airmass spun around, affect whole of SW and South Europe bar the SE side.

They all differ at 144hr mark as far as the positioning of Low Pressure in NW and NE Atlantic is concerned, UKMO shows more changeable with Cold NW flow could push across us, GFS develops a Cold Easterly at 96-144, especially at 120-144hrs.

The forecast models are oddly taking it, SW Russia have either a North South divide between High vs Low Pressure - as NE Europe sees Areas of PV short wave spin around Polar Vortex in the Middle.

NW and North Atlantic area the ECMWF and the GFS more progressive Short wave Low push from SW to ENE, and show Cold Pooling in the Greenland area with Blocking High there, tending GFS and ECMWF models to put the brakes in North Atlantic flow that buckles by the Greenland and the U.K. high.  It looks like GFS keeps the Greenland and UK High with Cold chilly east flow in NW Europe SE of West UK high!.

They are not sure at all after next week's Tuesday, it looks odd with UKMO have 144hrs Chilly NW flow with High drift back towards the SW aka the Mid C E North Atlantic NW of Biscay et all.

 The Cold Northerly over East SE Artcic Sea in to the NNW of Norway also quite very cold - Svalbard has dropped to -16 deg. C recently, and it looks like dominating early to mid Next week as well.

 GFS shows the Siberian High re copped by Cold Uppers and Cold Surface High's push ENE from ESE far Europe SE move to far NW of Mid East and around Black Sea SW Russia side.  I think It looks set to stay cold in Europe at least upto 1st week of April, if today's mid to long range GFS is to be believed, but the ECMWF is not buying into, but UKMO is teasing us another way to get a NW flow or Northerly but it only goes out to 144hrs!.  You never know but in reality they all find this setup very hard to handle after 96hrs amen.

💤😎🌞🌫⛅️.

It still plus 1.7 in nearest cold spot near me, and there clearly is frost outside, skies look hazy light blue.

Oslo is at -2, Svalbard is still at -16, 1 deg. C in Stockholm and Moscow. Japan Tokyo at 19 now, Seoul at 15 and Seattle at 7.2 and Sofia in Bulgaria is at 0 deg. C.  

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will drift slowly West to the North of Scotland allowing the chilly NE flow across Southern and Eastern Britain to back to a more Northerly direction tomorrow and the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise from near 4000ft across the South at first to be nearer to 6000ft across the UK tomorrow and the weekend with no snowfall expected across the UK with the freezing level well over even the highest summits.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and bright with some frosts at night. Probably becoming less settled later in the month especially in the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains blocked by a large High to the North of the UK. The theme is for the block to persist for a time diverting the flow well North and South of the UK for the next week or so. Thereafter, the flow focuses on a point to the South of the UK as the block continues to collapse through week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure continuing to control the weather across the UK over the next 3 or 4 days as High pressure continues to lie close to or over the UK with a lot of cloud trapped in it's circulation. Next week shows more variable conditions as on this run Low pressure to the South may allow some rain to feed up into Southern and Western areas with High pressure declining to the NE by Easter. Then after a variable but not too bad an Easter break weather-wise another surge of unsettled conditions are shown to develop in Week 2 from the South as Low pressure once more disrupts it's way to the to the South of the UK with the end of the run ending with Low pressure taking a more traditional Northerly track with a Westerly flow with rain at times moving in from the West for all.  

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows High pressure holding on across the UK through the first week as it centre remains over or close to the North of the UK. Over Easter quite slack pressure conditions would give a benign and rather cloudy Easter with unspectacular temperatures but not much rain. Then in the second week the weather remains quite quiet before pressure falls from the SW with strong SE winds and rain followed by a less chilly SW flow with further rain ends the period for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show complete disagreement between members with 4 equal shares of 25% split between Low pressure governance and that of High pressure across the UK in two weeks time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning for the first time has shown the weather breaking down from the North next week as the High pressure across the North of the UK accelerates away to the SW early in the week with Low pressure spreading wind and rain SE over the UK by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure in control over the period although it becomes increasingly squeezed away to the West by the start of next week with several weak troughs moving South across the UK at times ensuring plenty of cloud and a little drizzle feasible anywhere at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning quite settled over the next week as High pressure continues to wobble around close to or over the NW of the UK with the weather watchers chasing areas of cloud across the UK and rather cool conditions at times. Then as we move through Easter the weather is shown to deteriorate from the North with Easter looking cold and unsettled with rain or wintry showers looking likely for many especially over the East. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure based conditions continuing over the UK up until Easter as this run shows the High maintaining control lying close to the South of the UK next week before a North/South split in conditions look likely over Easter with rain at times especially across the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure lasting for another 4-5 days as it meanders further West and SW out into the Atlantic as we move into next week. This will then gradually allow pressure to fall from the North similar to the way UKMO shows this morning but perhaps less dramatic with a ridge following a couple of days of cool and unsettled weather and the ultimate return of Atlantic and Westerly winds with rain at times and average temperatures for all by Day 10 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows an unstable West or SW flow looking likely in 10 days with Low pressure out to the NW with the Jet stream crossing East close to Southern England and High pressure well away by then to the SW or SE so rain at times in average temperatures look the most likely conditions the UK find ourselves in.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still much indecision between the output this morning in the way the general theme of High pressure loosening it's grip evolves as we move towards the Easter period and beyond.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 85.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.2 pts to 59.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 45.3 pts to 44.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The weather patterning over the next few weeks looks as unclear as ever this morning as all outputs differ in the way they handle the breakdown from the current High pressure as we move towards Easter. In fact some output show just a partial breakdown with a lot of benign and quiet conditions looking likely whereas there are a few more supporters of a cold Northerly flow looking possible or a more Westerly based pattern. But coming back to the here and now and all models show another 4-5 days of relatively fine if rather cloudy conditions with a chill in the air the most likely weather as the High pressure responsible wobbles around the North and later out to the West of the UK. It's what happens to the High after that which is far less certain with GFS maintaining it across the UK for a time with an eventual breakdown moving up from the SW with cold and damp conditions developing in a SE flow while UKMO, GEM and ECM show an attack from the North with a spell of cold and windy conditions with some rain and hill snow looking possible close to the start of the Easter weekend melting into a Westerly flow thereafter from ECM. Which is right remains unclear and yesterday I know I favoured the then version of ECM and Westerly winds developing soon after Easter and I still feel that remains my thoughts. However, it would be unwise to discount the chances of a colder and more unsettled theme under a much colder airflow either from the North or East with some of the main output notably from GFS looking so volatile towards this evolution. As usual more runs are needed so watch this space. 

Next Update Friday March 18th 2016 from 09:00

Has it? is there evidence that this small block was/is directly influenced by that SSW? Is it a case that we totally depend on a SSW event to get high pressure to build over this part of the world and this time of year?

totally agree.. This I just a standard high pressure block that can happen at any time of the year with or without SSW.

I recall reading in either this thread or the previous MOD thread the other week that the current or recent SSW was forecast to break or considerably weaken the polar vortex. If this has happened then that could help the explain the rather quieter nature of the weather we have at the moment compared to the non-stop atlantic zonality we saw throughout December and January, and then much of February.

You have to look at the NH charts to see the bigger picture:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=48&mode=0&carte=1

Positive AO and the PV displaced over Russia.

I doubt there is, there are so many other factors that contribute to what type of weather we get. I'm bemused why some focus on a SSW so much like it's some holy grail of forecasting the weather.

It's also the case that we always see a SSW, ie zonal 10hPa winds reversal, in the spring - it's called the "final warming" and can happen as early as late February or as late as April. It obviously doesn't always bring a winter wonderland when it happens...

When an SSW occurs in the middle of winter it often leads to a cold snap for the UK. As it is occurring in the middle of March it means many will see some fine weather with some decent temperatures, especially in the best of the sunshine towards the north.

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/tag/sudden-stratospheric-warming/

I hope the above puts the issue to bed. 

1) 'often leads to a cold snap' in the winter months
This in no way suggests a big continental freeze of the kind some seem to think an SSW implies. It could just be a few days with nighttime frosts and wintry showers in the north.

2) 'as it is occurring mid March'
This suggests the MetO think as SSW mid March onwards is not directly associated with late season wintry outbreaks

Add to this the fact that we often get a quiet spell late winter/early Spring, SSW or not.
The persistence of a few posters in expecting an SSW-triggered cold blast is wearing a bit thin and it all looks fairly benign for the foreseeable.
The good news is that this pitiful excuse of a winter can be finally put to bed very soon and I can get on with the main interest - convective storms and Spanish Plumes

More likely drizzle & 18c maxes from a persistent westerly, but never mind.

To keep the MO thread readable please use the new "General Weather" thread if your posts are of a more general nature. Here's the link:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=16091

Readability of the MO thread has become more of a problem due to the increased use of embedded charts and smartphone browsers so I think it's worth seeing if we can improve things. 

Very interesting GFS 12z with a lot of warm southerlies being dragged up over the UK starting around Easter. If we can get some sunshine too the first 21C/22C of the year may well be reached.

12z bit of a dramatic departure from earlier runs and a warm outlier later on. But it'd be nice if it came off as Larry mentions.

Overall the majority trend remains for some benign cool weather, feeling okay in the sun but chilly at night if it remains clear. Be interesting to see ECM's take on things - I doubt it'll collapse the HP off in the same way as GFS does...

Right around April Fools Day. I'm not falling for it GFS!! 

More like it:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn36017.gif

Haven't been around much - nothing to report - very benign weather.

At 00z Wednesday the GFS versus UKMO for next week, and thirdly ECMWF, today's 12z Overplaying/ disagree with UKMO or the same as it with Cold air SW Greenland and NW Atlantic- not sure at the moment with them imagining what happens on and after next Wednesday at T144, Low moving from West M North Atlantic by Thursday if 12z GFS has it's way, it then goes along SW to ENE trajectory Thurs-Friday next week, but 12z ECMWF and UKMO show the System Low's with pulses of cold NW flow. 

Right now they all seem to want to remove be the UK high and they push it away in Cen. Mid N Atlantic but allowing Low Pressure from either Weso or SW or the NW.

More runs needed I'm afraid but a Sub Mid Lat South North divide seems more likely from next Wednesday midday to Friday next week, or a brief Chilly SE flow Wed/Thursday, then mild SW to NE moving N Atlantic Low's, bringing some wedges of mild or warm 546 dam lines etc.

Nearest cold spot near to me is now again down to 1.5 deg. C- but it   Was certainly about 11 deg.c midday to mid afternoon (chilly morning's and evening's up here), and this chilly spell with 6 hours of mild pleasant day middles to carry on at least to next Wednesday.

😆😅☔️💦🌫🌩😎.

Definite trend towards more unsettled conditions for the Easter period.