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Maunder Minimum
13 January 2017 16:28:44

I don't buy this 12z GFS run - the synoptics are all over the place - no discernable pattern - a case of model indigestion- just does not look valid to me at this stage. What a mess:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH12_180_2.png

New world order coming.
SEMerc
13 January 2017 16:28:55

T+180 Cold air over Jan Mayen hopefully pivoting towards Scotland.


sizzle
13 January 2017 16:30:59

06z GFS is a lot colder later. Models consistent with high pressure to NW of British Isles, 06z GFS just intensifies it - so it's a 'maybe'.

Gavin D
13 January 2017 16:35:50

UKMO continues to show things settling down next week temps likely to be dropping back after a mild start


UKMOPEU12_72_1.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.png


Russwirral
13 January 2017 16:36:39
The Colder uppers over Europe take a battering on this run with alot of them petering out. However a quick check on the surface temps shows Europe is still most certainly still in the Freezer, if anything it loks marginally colder.

I wonder whats going on up in the atmosphere to show a warming - or a less cold upper atmosphere?

Meanwhile all eyes on FI to see if the GFS starts to look like ECM

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Maunder Minimum
13 January 2017 16:37:59

The UK has become a magnet for high pressure this winter. No Greenie High on the GFS 12z - just another mid latitude block. Still should be nice thick ice on some canals and good country walking weather.

New world order coming.
moomin75
13 January 2017 16:41:24
A UK high continues to be a near certainty for a long time. A borefest for the rest of January but cold and dry which sure beats raging zonality.
It's clear to everyone surely that an extended spell of DRY UK high dominated weather is almost 100% certain.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
13 January 2017 16:43:02


The UK has become a magnet for high pressure this winter. No Greenie High on the GFS 12z - just another mid latitude block. Still should be nice thick ice on some canals and good country walking weather.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Maybe it's not quite over for a Greenie High yet, Maunder; this chart looks a little more hopeful in that regard:


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.html


 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
kmoorman
13 January 2017 16:43:31

A UK high continues to be a near certainty for a long time. A borefest for the rest of January but cold and dry which sure beats raging zonality.
It's clear to everyone surely that an extended spell of DRY UK high dominated weather is almost 100% certain.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


When you say 'almost 100% certain', what percentage are you thinking of?

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Maunder Minimum
13 January 2017 16:44:01


 


Maybe it's not quite over for a Greenie High yet, Maunder; this chart looks a little more hopeful in that regard:


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.html


 


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Never quite makes it on this run I am afraid.


It really is Groundhog day every day this winter

New world order coming.
kmoorman
13 January 2017 16:45:00


 


Maybe it's not quite over for a Greenie High yet, Maunder; this chart looks a little more hopeful in that regard:


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.html


 


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


But then, the high slips dutifully into place over the UK


 


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
sizzle
13 January 2017 16:47:33


The UK has become a magnet for high pressure this winter. No Greenie High on the GFS 12z - just another mid latitude block. Still should be nice thick ice on some canals and good country walking weather.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

the UK has been a magnet for High Pressure since last june 2016. and it has been a dominate feature and always tends to keep bouncing back like a bad penny,

moomin75
13 January 2017 16:51:49


 


 


When you say 'almost 100% certain', what percentage are you thinking of?


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 

Well based on the last 7 days of charts from all models. I'd say a good 90%. Guesswork of course it is but the models have been coming together to show an extended period of UK high dominated weather.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
13 January 2017 17:07:45


Well based on the last 7 days of charts from all models. I'd say a good 90%. Guesswork of course it is but the models have been coming together to show an extended period of UK high dominated weather.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Fact of the day men say they are 90% confident when trying to assert a fact they are guessing at to cover themselves !!

The Beast from the East
13 January 2017 17:18:35

poor UKMO and GFS, ens as well. The easterly is dead. High seems to be trending further south and west


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Bertwhistle
13 January 2017 17:25:03


 


Fact of the day men say they are 90% confident when trying to assert a fact they are guessing at to cover themselves !!


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


What are fact of the day men?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
moomin75
13 January 2017 17:26:35


 


Fact of the day men say they are 90% confident when trying to assert a fact they are guessing at to cover themselves !!


Originally Posted by: ballamar 

I make and never had made any effort to cover myself. I just read it as I see it and I didn't pluck 90% out of the air. I looked at all the charts from ECM/UKMO/GFS over the last 7 days and approximately 90% of these have shown a UK/MLB.


It's not rocket science it's just statistics.


I've never amended winter or summer LRFs and I don't hide or shy away from people when my thoughts go wrong. That's why I don't overreact to people having a go at me. I reap what I sow and if I'm wrong I'm happy for people to knock me down and ridicule me. But likewise when I am right it's nice to receive recognition for that as certain people did last year during the December from hell when I called a record breaking mild December and predicted exceptional warmth about 3 weeks before the month had started.


David Porter was particularly kind to me but I accept the criticism from him now likewise.


We are all enthusiastic amateurs and my brain is not a £97 million super computer.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
13 January 2017 17:30:55


I make and never had made any effort to cover myself. I just read it as I see it and I didn't pluck 90% out of the air. I looked at all the charts from ECM/UKMO/GFS over the last 7 days and approximately 90% of these have shown a UK/MLB.


It's not rocket science it's just statistics.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Actually a large number have shown some form of ridging to or from Greenland in a week or so? Are you discounting this and will you continue to do so if the ECM 12z run shows such a scenario...again)?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
moomin75
13 January 2017 17:32:03


 


Actually a large number have shown some form of ridging to or from Greenland in a week or so? Are you discounting this and will you continue to do so if the ECM 12z run shows such a scenario...again)?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

On balance over the last 7 days inclusive of the ECM approximately 90% have gone on to progress to a UK High/Rex block in the medium term. It was using statistics that led me to my record mild December 2015 call. It's certainly not an infallible method but is as accurate as any other method in my view.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Karl Guille
13 January 2017 17:32:27
Blimey, 850hPA temps are being downgraded at a rate of knots! This has been coming but the GEFS 12z is a real kick in the teeth.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=224&ext=1&y=247&run=12&runpara=0 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
moomin75
13 January 2017 17:38:28
To clarify my method. It's exactly the same as was the case for December 2015 as an example. David Porter knows this as I told him what methodology I use for MRFs and that is basically I collect data from all 12z runs of the big 3. I collate them and in any seven day period I basically have 21 charts to look at. I then extrapolate this to a "probability" forecast based on those seven days worth of charts from the big 3.
The exact figure for the current seven day period is standing at 88.6% in favour of a UK/MLB high.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
13 January 2017 17:38:42


On balance over the last 7 days inclusive of the ECM approximately 90% have gone on to progress to a UK High/Rex block in the medium term. It was using statistics that led me to my record mild December 2015 call. It's certainly not an infallible method but is as accurate as any other method in my view.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Yes, the do you not recognise the trend to which I refer that has occurred over the last couple of days. With such changes why would you use the charts from 7 to 3 days ago (which are presumably outdated) rather than just the more recent ones? The recent ones may not have the evolution correct but surely they are more accurate than ones from data days old?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
moomin75
13 January 2017 17:40:09


 


Yes, the do you not recognise the trend to which I refer that has occurred over the last couple of days. With such changes why would you use the charts from 7 to 3 days ago (which are presumably outdated) rather than just the more recent ones? The recent ones may not have the evolution correct but surely they are more accurate than ones from data days old?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

See my explanation above. It's totally not infallible but I just look at averages and probabilities. 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
13 January 2017 17:41:22

Blimey, 850hPA temps are being downgraded at a rate of knots! This has been coming but the GEFS 12z is a real kick in the teeth.
Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

">http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=224&ext=1&y=247&run=12&runpara=0


 


Yes very uninspiring output across the board tonight . At least I've seen some snow fall and settle but it's not enough to satisfy.  Hopefully thats not it but it's not looking good in fact quite depressing tonight. It looked so promising a couple of days ago can't believe how poor it looks now.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
13 January 2017 17:42:38


See my explanation above. It's totally not infallible but I just look at averages and probabilities. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I understand your methodology I just think as new information comes in, using averages from days old data would dilute the accuracy of any forecast especially in an evolving situation. What will you think if the ECM op run strengthens the trend towards a Greenland High? Would you just add it to the mixing rather than seeing a trend over recent days?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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