I was going to say there is a real mixed bag from 180-240 with some GH options and a few showing disruption. The control is better than the OP for next weekends potential retrogression. 

There's enough to keep the serious model geek engaged anyway and the trip to Wagamama is on hold lol.

"Should have"? There are no rules that must be obeyed, they were modelled charts based on observations and then current synoptics. It did what it for whatever reason and it "shouldn't" have done anything different. The reasons why are not black and white. Using your argument maybe the pressure shouldn't be rising to outpr north or northwest based on recent runs either as that wasn't shown a few days ago.

Either way it looks rather cool for many and still very interesting in the medium term.

CWF as model verification stats show the output is little better than a guess beyond day 10 it is pushing things a bit to say there is 80% confidence in anything by the end of the month (apart from e approach of February where confidence could be a bit higher )

Perhaps 20 years ago it would have been able to build over Scandi as we saw in 95/96 and again 96/97. But these days the northern jet seems too powerful and we see spoiler shortwaves develop

Perhaos it wouldn't. See too can play this hypothetical guessing game. Personally I would like to discuss what the models actually show here in th MOD thread not what they might show in a parallel universe but I guess it's a matter of personal preference.

ActuLly on further inspection, the current and projected northern arm of the jet does not look especially strong, do you have data/charts to suggest that it is currently "too powerful"?

I'm curious.......what happened in 1987 that flicked the switch to the "modern era" - I assume there must be some science behind this ?

That is the whole point - there is no science behind it whatsoever - it is a figment of the imagination.

This winter is turning out pretty average temp wise. We have been unlucky in the exact location of HP cells is all. People in central and southern Europe are getting a wonderful winter.

Our turn will come.

You have been told countless times by Rob K that the Northern Jet is weaker than is was in the past with evidence to back this up and yet still you spout this drivel!

Hi Jon, I will let this one stand but if you or others want to continue this discussion perhaps start a new thread? We will remove further posts that are not directly on topic. Thanks.

Edit: I will let Nck's post stay as well as it was written when I was writing the above message but other topics on "modern winter" and climatic changes re. blocking will be (re)moved.

I've just moved quite a few of the last posts into a "suspense account", for lack of better terminology.

It's tiresome as well as time consuming to have to continually remind members that discussions in this thread have to be model related. Just for clarity further off topic posts will be deleted and we have now reached a point where perpetual offenders can expect lengthy suspensions. Be warned..............

Edit: Some of the posts removed were perfectly legitimate but responses to posts which were off topic in the first instance - for those affected, my apologies.

I've seen discussion on Twitter today about the GFS repeatedly suggesting an SSW at 384. One point I'll make here is that there is a natural tendency for the vortex to breakdown as we head into Feb and the sun begins returning to the northern hemisphere. I sometimes wonder whether the increased propensity for the nwp to show "SSWs" during the second half of winter reflects little more than this. 

GFS 12z rolling out - perhaps a northwards correction this time?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_60_2.png

not everyone's cup of tea but this will feel chilly one would imagine  UKMO @144

GFS @144

Could you let me know which thread to post this link in please, which shows there were 8 snowy winters in 1909-1933 and 3 from 1990 to present:- http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html 

Thanks

Well, watching the GFS 12z rollout and it is clear there is a weather conspiracy taking place this year to prevent the UK from ever experiencing proper, prolonged cold weather.

As I put earlier in the thread, it is the nearly winter - nearly this and nearly that but never quite making it. Promising synoptics always scuppered by something. Take this chart - has just missed the chance to build into Greenland and now there is LP to the NW, but there is the consideration it might lead to a Scandi, but you just know it will be flattened before that could possibly happen. The nearly winter continues to nearly deliver, but nearly is the same as nothing:

Very different to the 6z

yes, poor UKMO and GEM as well. As Steve M said yesterday probably a good time to take a break from model watching

I concur! It is a frustrating waste of time looking for winter in the UK. I am giving it a break for a few days - sick of the continual downgrades and let downs.

Go on, enlighten us to what the runs actually show because all I have seen in essentially every run bar one or two from you is "a poor run from...". It adds nothing, and people who have not seen the output themselves may think that means mild, wet and windy when in reality the foreseeable realistic outlook is none of those three. 

How about mentioning the snow risk in the east or the southeast over the coming 24hrs? Or the fact that the cold lingers in the southeast before things settle down more across the whole country with chilly conditions and then pressure increases to our west, northwest or north before you eventually get to Ian's "Atlantic winning through" point? Or possibly even that same run that Ian refers to hints at cold air moving down from the north a day or two later?

Come on Marcus you must recognise zonality when you see it?

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

I never said it would be mild, wet and windy. Its poor because only a few days ago some models were showing a cold easterly. As for tomorrow's snow risk, as Darren said in the other thread it looks like a non event and certainly didn't warrant a warning from the METO

Anyway, to be positive we need to push the pattern along and hope for a GH which is still possible