A cold weekend in store for the south , GFS's Saturday evening forecast: Now nearly a week to the warm up Brrr for the SE til then.

So, so close to my first sub-zero night in quite some while. Snow row has died for the time being but at least I can look forward to a few crisp cold days this week which is a real treat for me. I also wonder if come the weekend the cold will hang on in the south east just a bit longer?

Based on the data to hand i think we're in for more of what we have now until Monday. This is when the pattern will flattern out and the Swlys return. For how long is the next element that needs modelling. Based on what we've seen so far this winter, I'd expect no more than about 7 days before it changes again. 

Despite a transition to a more unsettled spell next week I wouldn't be surprised to see this diluted in the south. 

Agree with Brian and Darren, although I would point out the ECM appears to delay the SWly take over til 25th (day 😎 by temporarily reforming the MLB over us on day 7 -  so not quite a certainty at that range.

Ian F

W COUNTRY OUTLOOK

Mostly dry, benign & often cloudy weather this week, but signs strengthen for marked change of weather type next week as low pressure most likely to then dominate final days of Jan & into first few of Feb: milder; often wetter/windier weather. Low confidence thereafter through 1st half Feb, but drier/colder possible via high-pressure re-establishing (frost/fog risks). Worth adding that a minority of model solutions retain high pressure as more influential late Jan, but for now a lower probability

I disagree. Nobody saw the recent (for the SE, current) cold spell coming. The atmosphere is complex and even modern computer models cannot predict the inherently chaotic patterns a week and more away with any great consistency.

In short, nothing is set in stone. The prospects for the next week rather prove my point: a renewed surge of WAA looks likely to renew the largely settled spell.

Imminent return of a mobile pattern? I don't see that as inevitable yet, certainly for the SE quarter.

I totally agree with you, Peter. For my money, the numerous flips flops we have seen in the model output over the last 10-11 days alone more than back up your first point about even present day models struggling to predict changes in the atmosphere a week or more away.

Some people here back in early December were predicting a zonal spell commencing in the middle of that month which would go on to last for approximately 6 weeks or longer based on some of the output we saw at the time, and look at how that turned out.

 2 weeks ago - less than that - people were saying that there were no signs of anything cold or wintry for January. It amazes me how people can keep coming up with these acts of dodgy clairvoyancy.

I think there's so much information being spewed out that people forget. It's understandable in one sense but not when it's coupled with cliches about patterns being locked in.

The low moving in over scandanavia was moving in over the UK yesterday. Just goes to show how much can change even at 120. Nothing is guaranteed.

Even out as far as Sunday Europe is still quite cold, any wind comming off the near continent will feel raw:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_135_2mtmp.png?cb=343

If we can get the angle of this advecting warm air to be more southerly it would put us in a better position.

Why better position? need to be more northerly for high pressure? - looks like the GFS has delayed the return to zonal by a couple days - still looks cold for the south until next Monday and Tuesday now:

Still very cold for the south and south east Tuesday early hours:

Nice Jet profile tracking South?

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_300_250mbjet.png?cb=352

High Pressure often proves more stubborn than predicted, also a slight change in position can have dramatic effect as the SE is aware currently.
There isn't a proper jet stream to do any pushing just now - it's all over the place so being 'certain' of something a week out is unwise.