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John p
17 January 2017 18:59:35


Wonder what the EPS will show but the ECM op has a quite startling evolution:



Originally Posted by: Justin W 


But I thought zonality was a dead cert by day 8?

Camberley, Surrey
Gooner
17 January 2017 19:00:07

Interesting 12z runs this evening , nothing is nailed on as yet, I'd say

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Snow Hoper
17 January 2017 19:00:15


Wonder what the EPS will show but the ECM op has a quite startling evolution:



Originally Posted by: Justin W 


ALL ABOARD!!


makes me laugh how the models can make fools out of even the more seasoned watchers amongst us.


Not saying it's coming, just highlighting the fact that no one can be sure!

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
doctormog
17 January 2017 19:00:43
And this evening's word seems to be "anticyclonic".

Nothing overly exciting for up here but possibly remaining chilly in the SE. Nothing extremely cold or extremely mild overall, in fact not much of anything.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
David M Porter
17 January 2017 19:01:54

The charge into mild zonal mobility is gathering pace I see.
😂😂😂

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Looks as though the mild zonal train isn't going to be as fast arriving as had been assumed, at least if ECM 12z is right.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Phil G
17 January 2017 19:03:29


Some very mild and very wet GEFS members. I think this thread is going to become very quiet soon.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Bit more activity than you expected?

doctormog
17 January 2017 19:06:42
Enough of the snide remarks please. It is one set of runs, which may be part of a trend or a blip. May I suggest we look at things over the next few runs before we make any judgement on the likelihood or longevity of any zonal period.

The models, as has been said by Snow Hoper, can make fools of us all, especially if we make premature assumptions (regardless of their nature).
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Justin W
17 January 2017 19:09:02


 


ALL ABOARD!!


makes me laugh how the models can make fools out of even the more seasoned watchers amongst us.


Not saying it's coming, just highlighting the fact that no one can be sure!


Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 


There has clearly been something picked up by the Euro and, to a lesser extent, the GFS ops. Just as our Scandi HP of a week or two back was downgraded as upstream conditions changed, it appears that the same thing is happening again but with the reverse effect.


None of us has a crystal ball but I have thought all along that this would be a dry and, overall, coolish winter. February may make an idiot of me but I see no return to the highly mobile pattern of the last two or three winters at the moment. 

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Karl Guille
17 January 2017 19:13:15
Turn my back for 20 mins and this pops up!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017011712/ECM0-240.GIF?17-0 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Whether Idle
17 January 2017 19:22:03

And this evening's word seems to be "anticyclonic".

Nothing overly exciting for up here but possibly remaining chilly in the SE. Nothing extremely cold or extremely mild overall, in fact not much of anything.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Remaining "chilly?" Its freezing down here and the coldest day of the winter, which we are less than a third of the way through.


Here are Langdon Bay temps today from 0500 to 1800:





















-0.2 °0.3 °0.1 °0.3 °0.7 °0.7 °1.2 °0.9 °1.2 °1.1 °1.0 °0.7 °-0.8 °-0.1 °
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
17 January 2017 19:25:01

Turn my back for 20 mins and this pops up!
Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

">http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017011712/ECM0-240.GIF?17-0


The writing was on the wall for zonality this morning with the settling in of a HP on 24th on the 0z ECM.  Maybe, for the Scandi High advecting deep cold to US it will be third time lucky this month?


Edit - upon reflection, unless we get a decent fall of pressure over Iberia, the way things are configured this winter, you can forget a proper easterly.  Having LP over Italy is insufficient this year, we need a decent Iberian low to kick cold west.  I concede its an FI academic argument, but that 240 chart would probably lead to HP domination of the UK at 264 and beyond. I don't mind if it brings the glorious weather that today brought with snow patches in the hills and frost in the shade all day.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
17 January 2017 19:27:56


 


Remaining "chilly?" Its freezing down here and the coldest day of the winter, which we are less than a third of the way through.


Here are Langdon Bay temps today from 0500 to 1800:





















-0.2 °0.3 °0.1 °0.3 °0.7 °0.7 °1.2 °0.9 °1.2 °1.1 °1.0 °0.7 °-0.8 °-0.1 °

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Yes, as I said chilly 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
17 January 2017 19:31:28

Insane Scandi block from the ecm this evening can we get an easterly looks tough but zonality looks even more unlikely tonight. 


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Whether Idle
17 January 2017 19:34:03


 


Yes, as I said chilly 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Nice one laddie. By the standards of southern Britain, April 2013- Jan 2017, that is COLD

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Bertwhistle
17 January 2017 19:36:16


Insane Scandi block from the ecm this evening can we get an easterly looks tough but zonality looks even more unlikely tonight. 


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Well we would if that pattern continued- the ridge is clearly extending west. But I have to say I'm suspicious of evolutions between 192 and 216 hours- as you click between these times you could be forgiven for thinking the latter hadn't updated, such is the incongruity between the two frames. For example, there is no definition really of the HP cell at 192, but it suddenly takes shape at 216 (which of course can happen). That said, ECM has pulled some unexpected punches with Scandi-ish highs of late, so wisdom would at least take note.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
doctormog
17 January 2017 19:37:42


 


Nice one laddie. By the standards of southern Britain, April 2013- Jan 2017, that is COLD


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


I guess if it was any colder Andy (Essan) may have to sleep inside. 


It does go to show though, that despite out island(s) being rather small on a global scale given certain situations the weather can be rather different from one end to another. It also goes to show what our weather could be like if we had a continental climate as the normal as opposed to a maritime one! 


All rather interesting even if the outlook for this neck of the woods is not!

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Devonian
17 January 2017 19:40:03

This run of well above normal high pressure* is never ending


* with two blips in November and one this month

Whether Idle
17 January 2017 19:40:36


 


Well we would if that pattern continued- the ridge is clearly extending west. But I have to say I'm suspicious of evolutions between 192 and 216 hours- as you click between these times you could be forgiven for thinking the latter hadn't updated, such is the incongruity between the two frames. For example, there is no definition really of the HP cell at 192, but it suddenly takes shape at 216 (which of course can happen). That said, ECM has pulled some unexpected punches with Scandi-ish highs of late, so wisdom would at least take note.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Trust me, until you see any kind of low developing over Iberia, its a 'close but no cigar' scenario for an easterly worth its name.  High Pressure seems to have been anchored over there limpit like just when we don't need it, or else over us.  Agree with your suspicions over ECM FI, but until that Iberian low forms at the right time, forget it!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
17 January 2017 19:42:01

I don't know what the obsession is with cool or mild temperatures? There is nothing remotely of interest in either camp for the foreseeable future just the perpetuation of dross. 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


 


On the contrary, cold frosty weather in winter is far from "dross". In fact I would go so far as to say that a decent frost with a bit of mist followed by a crisp clear sunny day is much nicer than a bit of wet snowfall!

Anyway, the ECM is providing a bit of interest again tonight. Strap in... 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
17 January 2017 19:43:36


 


Well we would if that pattern continued- the ridge is clearly extending west. But I have to say I'm suspicious of evolutions between 192 and 216 hours- as you click between these times you could be forgiven for thinking the latter hadn't updated, such is the incongruity between the two frames. For example, there is no definition really of the HP cell at 192, but it suddenly takes shape at 216 (which of course can happen). That said, ECM has pulled some unexpected punches with Scandi-ish highs of late, so wisdom would at least take note.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


 


Would be Interesting to see day 11 12 on that ecm run. Maybe model watching will start to get fun again after a couple of torturous days for coldies.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
17 January 2017 19:50:59


 


 


On the contrary, cold frosty weather in winter is far from "dross". In fact I would go so far as to say that a decent frost with a bit of mist followed by a crisp clear sunny day is much nicer than a bit of wet snowfall!

Anyway, the ECM is providing a bit of interest again tonight. Strap in... 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I agree cold and frosty is the next best thing to the white stuff


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
17 January 2017 20:00:00

The parallel 6Z at 240hr



 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Chiltern Blizzard
17 January 2017 20:43:14


">http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017011712/ECM0-240.GIF?17-0

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


The writing was on the wall for zonality this morning with the settling in of a HP on 24th on the 0z ECM.  Maybe, for the Scandi High advecting deep cold to US it will be third time lucky this month?



Advecting deep cold to the USA!?! That would be some Scandi high!


Edit. Sorry, you meant 'us' not America!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Gavin D
17 January 2017 20:43:48

Ian F

12z ECMWF deterministic trends right at very bottom temp range of ensemble spread Not trusted... however, let's see. And 15d meteograms that run lean (again for now) to rather +ve avg temps developing last week Jan, with most members SW'ly/W'ly

Zubzero
17 January 2017 20:53:43

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