I've been watching for signs of an adjustment toward more in the way of ridging in our vicinity as has been a tendency of recent times. This may be the models reeling back in their enthusiasm for a surge of Pacific trade winds to set in motion a boost to the Atlantic jet; the results will hopefully be less dramatic than some recent runs (GFS 18z, ECM 12z and 00z) have shown.

Yes... the ECM 00z.

Still a bit vicious from this model, but given that even GEM is looking less autumnal than it was, I'm inclined to feel that ECM is just being a right old *line aborted* 

Not enjoying the look of the latest output at all. Looks extremely unsettled with plenty of low pressure around.

Is it the curse of recent summers where everything falls apart as we hit summer proper?

I'm going to Glastonbury towards the end of June.. after last year I'm desperately hoping for a better time of it. 

Doubt it - early June is known as the "European Monsoon" as it more often than not involves an unsettled and cooler spell.

Good! Hope it's just a blip. :-) 

Summer is nearly here, Oh no, rain is forecast in the next 10 days . Summer is over. Roll on Winter 

Looking at the 12z's, no real surprise to see the continuation of an Atlantic themed outlook from the weekend onwards. GFS probably the pick of the bunch as the SE escapes the worst of it with high pressure never truly relinquishing here, and temperatures hanging around the 20-22C max, perhaps warmer given its tendency to underestimate maximum temperatures.

ECM looks a little more Atlantic driven but again the SE has the best of it, which is pretty expected really given the pattern. In fact, on the 8th June a small low pressure system drags up some pretty warm air off the continent to heat up the SE - probably would see 25C and thundery showers if that came off.

GEM keeps it cool and unsettled for the most part but it's low pressures are pretty feeble and so is the model 

All in all, nothing out of the ordinary for late May. Best to get to the SE if you want to keep the warmth, though 

Watching with interest on GFS ensembles for London as they upgraded the warmth to 10C and lot of lines going for 15-20C and one 1 going for 22C.  There will be a short lived unsettled spell early next week so need more few days runs to see this firming up for another period of warm to hot weather.

To my eye, and my recollections, the Pattern from Sunday onwards currently is backing Low Pressure and strong breezy winds occasionally windy some days but at the moment it looks like the GFS is playing a cat and mouse game chasing off any extended Low Pressure, while from 120-144 hours the East and SE UK is being shown to see showers and West SW winds and cooler even at the 144hr mark, and what we have over next 72 hours is Azores High ridge and very warm weather in East SW and SE and Central UK plus South UK with increasing amount of sunshine, and dry with it.

At the moment it needs a saying that we shall wait further UKMO and GFS plus ECMWF runs needed to show what influence and effect the next Low Pressure has on UK as the Low at 120-144 cross us and move off East NE.

The GFS is sticking to it's guns with the consistent Low vs High setup showing up later Tuesday and during the Wednesday.

But I think the Atlantic PV Low Pressure has a very good indeed chance of gripping us - with chance of heavy rain and warm mild sector strong winds and then cooler fresher with numerous scattered blustery or squally showers with hail and thunderstorms in good measure.  

But you never know come GFS, UKMO and ECMWF 12z today and tomorrow to see if which wins.  If I compare to January this year and November last year - then I say the GFS will follow the ECMWF and UKMO and back the wet and windy Low Pressure.

A repetitive pattern is in charge but it has broken up this March-May to allow some very warm and sunny Sceuro W Europe Azores High combo to also play a role that does differ from what we had from the March to early July period of last year 2016. It generally improved from mid Feb of this year as it became less cold, but the dry period for mid spring this year allowed the thundery breakdowns that we have seen from about 11-12 May this year which was followed by another 8 days when the changeable often very warm and dry weather resumed with another bout or two of heavy showers some prolonged for my area.

This years weather pattern is much nicer than compared to same times last year so actually we have a mixture of both!.

😎☀️⛈☔️😅.

Stay on topic. Less of the histrionics, more of the analysis. 

12z GFS looks just lovely! 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

FI, but still...

Bullseye!  Let's see what the ECM can respond with 

ECM (left) v. GEM (right) for a week today.

The latter is the last model holding out some hope and it wouldn't really count for much had it not been the first to spot the more settled outcome for last week.

If ever we needed GFS and ECM to be overdoing an uptick in jet stream strength this season, this is the time.

Optimistic Flag: On 

Some pretty awful charts being churned out by the models for early June, with low pressure close to or slap bang on top of the country. If they are convective-type lows then I can manage with that, but if they are lows loaded with frontal garbage then no thanks. The hope I'm hanging onto at the moment is the fact that the models have been overestimating unsettled weather over recent months.

But in the meantime, does a chart get any worse for June?

Definitely Euro monsoon time -UK joining it in a week from now

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/panels.php?model=gem&var=1&map=1&lid=OP

I hope the outcome for GEM will come off as afte a short unsettled spell a warmer set-up come to effect for here.  Even so GFS show some unsettled weather but the ensembles runs still continue to show some hot runs so nothing is solved for next week but I think GEM will be the winner for next week as they did for last week hot spell. 

Mini plume on the ecm as well but a basically unsettled run. But there is so much heat around to our south we will be very unlucky this summer if at some point we dont get an extremely hot spell.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

Agreed and at some point the LP to the west will die out at some point so that will allow proper heat nationwide based on Azores to Scandinavia HP movement otherwise it would be boring to see short lived warm spells in the SE if the LP kept hanging around to the west that limited the HP from taking place of whole of UK.

The June monsoon 'return of the westerlies' is not dramatic hyperbole and should be expected most years. Its very normal and part of a hemispherical pattern shift. 

Its the very reason why June (away from western Scotland) often disappoints and does not live up to its potential.

Quite big changes on the GFS 12z. Trending towards something a good deal more summery.

Seem to follow the GEM chart again and I do hope the next few runs to further upgrade to bring nationwide heat than just the SE that showing in 12z runs.   That what they did before for last week they kept upgrading from SE heat to nationwide heat. 

Looks like everyone are finding the latest runs too painful to comment much about it.  

GFS does paint a rather autumnal look about things for next week, especially Monday. The other models to a lesser extent but still exactly not really that summery-looking with the Atlantic stirring from its late Spring slumber. Mild 'n' breezy sums it up, but drier the further south east you go (apart from Monday night/Tuesday morning).