I can sense excitement in here but I’m going to remain hugely cautious.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_168_1.png

Those heights over Europe may not lead to a clean cold evolution and I’m concerned we may remain anticylonic with the cold blast reserved for Iceland. 

Nice charts though 😊

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40% chance of snow in London later this week also hints at the end of of the mean for something milder as mentioned by the met office

The ensembles look a right old mish mash. Plenty of blowtorch solutions in there as well as a few cold beauties.

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I'm very cautious ATM, been bitten way too many times. I think we need to look North, but also keep an eye down South at Euro slug heights. Fascinating model watching nonetheless

You mean 50%???

Some similarities with early December 1981 though I think a breakdown to milder this time rather the snow and cold which dug in for most of Decemer 81

GEFS 12z update looks colder mid term than the 6z. 

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It's ironic that we have a -10C member for once (and arguably a second one too), just as the long-term prospects have taken a marked surge upwards. Nonetheless, as you say in the medium term it's not looking especially warm.

(Thanks for adding the 30-year mean btw, it really helps IMO to see at a glance just how cold (or not) the runs actually are. )

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I thought that too Brian. But There are one or two insane blow torch runs in there too. But one signal that is absent from these ensembles is the Zonal Sine wave which can only be promising.

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ECM so far 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

This is about as far as we can safely look at present.

Will the high ridge to our NW? Yes.

Will there be a Greenland High? Almost certainly yes.

Will the high retrogress NW enough to sufficiently allow an Arctic airstream? Possibly not. 

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Out to 144 now:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Not as good as GFS at the same point, but not that far off either. So could go either way from there.

And at 168, ECM decides to join the party. Yippee! Little point looking further than that.

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gm thus far stubborn heights to the south

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&carte=1

 

Ecm 168 looks absolutely stunning!

 

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Indeed but it is a heck of a lot better than the previous run!

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Indeed- this looks at least a bit more promising that the ECM 00z run did:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

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Indeed slowly catch a monkey

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=0&carte=1

 

Mixed GEM 12z. Halfway house really. 

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ECM also looks like collapsing the high over the UK after a short cold blast, as low pressure cuts through via Iceland.

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Yep, it looks all over at T+216

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

T+240.

Dire.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

But pointless looking at it, since at that range it will never verify. Witness the comparison posted earlier between ECM t+240 for today and the actual synoptics today - nothing like each other.

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The japs you get the feeling many more runs required

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1&nh=1

 

 

Let's be honest it could be far worse. If this is correct 850s are over 20C above average in Greenland right now. 

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FWIW 192 214 ecm were pretty cold charts for eastern districts

 

Yes disappointing end but huge improvement from this morning's effort. 

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