theweatheroutlook

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polarwind
30 November 2017 13:51:13


 


The postage stamps for T+192 (8th) show almost no evidence of zonality returning, at least.  There are variations on a theme of some sort of blocking up into the Greenland area - 18 out of 22 (including the control and op).  The two main variables are how much the high pressure to the south is displaced and how the LP coming SE is modelled.


 


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=192


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

We shouldn't forget that, years ago cold zonality was in the mix and present synoptics are close to that with the added, en-hanced possibility that blocking can become dominant.

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Dave,Derby
Solar Cycles
30 November 2017 13:56:58


I think this overlay of the latest four GEFS runs sums up the picture nicely:


 



 


We know pretty much what will happen up to the 5th, then.... ????


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Now thats what you call scatter.🤪

Russwirral
30 November 2017 16:21:51

12z currently looking like a milder looking run, with the initial Cold plunge not really making it to the UK until the mild LP runs across the country first.  I fully expect the cold plunge to be delayed back to the 10 day territory on this run (as is the norm for us Cold weather Model watchers)


 


Saying that, I dont think this forecast is resolved yet and i fully expect 2-3 swings either way over the weekend given the scatter we can see on the GEFS


 


I think the best bet will be to listen carefully for any information from the MET as i think human senior forecast intervention will be required as the Models just cant handle this most volatile of situation.


 


 I fully expect a real forecast to emerge tomorrow or Saturday with warnings for somewhere in the UK before the models start showing alignment/agreement.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
festivalking
30 November 2017 16:27:37


 


I should think there would be a warning indeed if that system came to fruition!


 



12z currently looking like a milder looking run, with the initial Cold plunge not really making it to the UK until the mild LP runs across the country first.  I fully expect the cold plunge to be delayed back to the 10 day territory on this run (as is the norm for us Cold weather Model watchers)


 


Saying that, I dont think this forecast is resolved yet and i fully expect 2-3 swings either way over the weekend given the scatter we can see on the GEFS


 


I think the best bet will be to listen carefully for any information from the MET as i think human senior forecast intervention will be required as the Models just cant handle this most volatile of situation.


 


 I fully expect a real forecast to emerge tomorrow or Saturday with warnings for somewhere in the UK before the models start showing alignment/agreement.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Dousland, Dartmoor 206 m/asl
Its only going to snow when Gibby says so.
nsrobins
30 November 2017 16:29:04


 


 I fully expect a real forecast to emerge tomorrow or Saturday with warnings for somewhere in the UK before the models start showing alignment/agreement.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Warnings for what - severe uncertainty? 😉


I agree with you regarding the UKM interpretation though. GFS has dropped the L-bomb again so whatever the debate and ultimate reality the model watching itself continues to be fascinating.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Maunder Minimum
30 November 2017 16:36:23


 


Warnings for what - severe uncertainty? 😉


I agree with you regarding the UKM interpretation though. GFS has dropped the L-bomb again so whatever the debate and ultimate reality the model watching itself continues to be fascinating.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


The sad fact is that the eye candy never makes it into the reliable. We were supposed to get a Greenie HP and bone chilling northerlies by Wednesday - but they keep being postponed and never getting under t+144 in the future. We are the donkies and the carrot keeps being dangled beyond our noses, yet we keep following it. Eeyore!

New world order coming.
Rob K
30 November 2017 16:36:39
UKMO 12Z shows the LP attacking us from the southwest, not a good angle for any snowy outcome.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Russwirral
30 November 2017 16:38:13


 


Warnings for what - severe uncertainty? 😉


I agree with you regarding the UKM interpretation though. GFS has dropped the L-bomb again so whatever the debate and ultimate reality the model watching itself continues to be fascinating.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


Yeh im talking about those forecasts you see on the BBC "watching this very carefully" and "model uncertainty"  with perhaps an end of presentation map of the uk, with a grey area of shading.  could be more north than this, or further south.


 


No smiles from the presenter.


 


 


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
roger63
30 November 2017 16:41:34



 


I should think there would be a warning indeed if that system came to fruition!


 


 


Originally Posted by: festivalking 


Its the evolution of the LP next thursday onwards that hold the key but as others have posted we are unlikely to get an answer until the weekend/begiining of next week.

Solar Cycles
30 November 2017 16:57:55


12z currently looking like a milder looking run, with the initial Cold plunge not really making it to the UK until the mild LP runs across the country first.  I fully expect the cold plunge to be delayed back to the 10 day territory on this run (as is the norm for us Cold weather Model watchers)


 


Saying that, I dont think this forecast is resolved yet and i fully expect 2-3 swings either way over the weekend given the scatter we can see on the GEFS


 


I think the best bet will be to listen carefully for any information from the MET as i think human senior forecast intervention will be required as the Models just cant handle this most volatile of situation.


 


 I fully expect a real forecast to emerge tomorrow or Saturday with warnings for somewhere in the UK before the models start showing alignment/agreement.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

This👍🏻

ballamar
30 November 2017 17:16:40
Nice to see a sneaky Arctic High at the end of GFS-that's where real cold will come from
Charmhills
30 November 2017 17:37:19


Ems for the East Midlands look chilly into next week after a brief mild incursion of air.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Rob K
30 November 2017 17:46:24

Nice to see a sneaky Arctic High at the end of GFS-that's where real cold will come from

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


I notice in the last few frames of the 12Z run heights are rising over Scandinavia and the fronts to the SW are going into reverse....


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
30 November 2017 17:49:04



Ems for the East Midlands look chilly into next week after a brief mild incursion of air.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Still Weds Duane. Will update very shortly.


A quick skeg through the set FI 12Z today and huge variation again, although the number toying with Scandy heights seems to be creeping up.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
30 November 2017 18:08:50


 


A couple of -10s there. Still a huge split from Dec 7. Lots of rain from then too, and/or snow for some perhaps?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
JACKO4EVER
30 November 2017 18:17:26
Well if ever there was a way of highlighting just how difficult it is to get any meaningful cold to these shores in the modern winter then this latest output serves up the lesson. The pendulum always seems to swing in the favour of mild, any little hiccup and uncertainty always seems to go against the grain. Obviously next weeks weather isn't here yet, but the latest output is a tad disappointing for many of that I'm sure.

Charmhills
30 November 2017 18:19:41


 


Still Weds Duane. Will update very shortly.


A quick skeg through the set FI 12Z today and huge variation again, although the number toying with Scandy heights seems to be creeping up.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Oh!!

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Ally Pally Snowman
30 November 2017 18:38:46

Shocking 12s has to be said compared to a couple of days ago. 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
30 November 2017 18:39:54
ECM seems to want to blast the jet into full-on SW - NE mode. It tries to build a Scandi high at 144 but that gets blown away rapidly.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
30 November 2017 19:19:49

ECM seems to want to blast the jet into full-on SW - NE mode. It tries to build a Scandi high at 144 but that gets blown away rapidly.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


i thought it was quite an encouraging run synoptically, given how it could have gone. Still predominantly blocked with a substantial surface and upper high in mid-Atlantic, ridging north towards Greenland at the end, and pressure falling over Europe.


Nothing much wrong with the T+240 chart


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
30 November 2017 19:23:08


 


i thought it was quite an encouraging run synoptically, given how it could have gone. Still predominantly blocked with a substantial surface and upper high in mid-Atlantic, ridging north towards Greenland at the end, and pressure falling over Europe.


Nothing much wrong with the T+240 chart



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


The 240hr chart isn't bad, but they rarely are. Everyone knows 95% of cold weather in the UK happens at T+240 :)

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Chunky Pea
30 November 2017 19:32:19


 


i thought it was quite an encouraging run synoptically, given how it could have gone. Still predominantly blocked with a substantial surface and upper high in mid-Atlantic, ridging north towards Greenland at the end, and pressure falling over Europe.


Nothing much wrong with the T+240 chart



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I don't see much interest on tonight's ECM because high pressure is always close by. Its actual positioning is of little relevance to me because whether it will bring cold or warmth, there will be little in the way of some decent vigorous weather, as you would normally expect at this time of year. 


GFS, on the other hand, has 70 mph winds and snow around the 8th for moi, so my interchangeable faith is placed firmly that model tonight.. until it all goes southwards in the next run. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Shropshire
30 November 2017 19:48:20

Well if ever there was a way of highlighting just how difficult it is to get any meaningful cold to these shores in the modern winter then this latest output serves up the lesson. The pendulum always seems to swing in the favour of mild, any little hiccup and uncertainty always seems to go against the grain. Obviously next weeks weather isn't here yet, but the latest output is a tad disappointing for many of that I'm sure.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


 


Yes a pretty dreadful ECM with a huge Azores High and energy going over the top. 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Shropshire
30 November 2017 19:49:37


Shocking 12s has to be said compared to a couple of days ago. 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes once again shortwaves have developed to scupper HLB.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Gandalf The White
30 November 2017 19:50:04


 


The 240hr chart isn't bad, but they rarely are. Everyone knows 95% of cold weather in the UK happens at T+240 :)


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


LOL, yes it does sometimes feel that way - except that we're currently in a cold spell with snow around.


I was responding to your comment that the ECM run was firing up the jet SW-NE when there was no evidence of that at all. I posted the final chart because that was the clearest proof but T+96, 120 and 144 all show the British Isles under high pressure before a trough at T+168 heralds the transition as the HP retrogresses to mid-Atlantic.


I just think that the evolution would provide seasonably cool conditions for many.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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