As an aside, the 18z delivers another excellent rebuttal of the claim that a cold plunge over North America must result in cyclogenesis driving LP systems across the Atlantic.  Yet again the jet stream trundles the deep LP slowly north and facilitates warm air advection i ahead of it.

Just to strike a blow for perspective and some of the stark changes since 1981 - here's the upper air chart forecast for day 9 - deep in mid December 2017: Notice the cold over Greenland - down to -20 but look to the north east - -8 at best the odd tiny pocket of -12.

Now see the same date in December 1981- widely -20 and down to -24 in Greenland, and a great swathe of -20 purples the Arctic north of Scandi.  My point being if we are going to compare with 1981, in a sense its a false comparison as (sadly) the Arctic has warmed considerably and that is where we source much of our cold air from, that makes our chances (of widespread lowland snowfall as in 1981)  reduce too.  In my view its important to be objective about our current situation. Best of luck to everyone, I'd like nothing more than a repeat of the weather of December 1981, but its far more difficult (and unlikely) 36 years later, due to the changes that have occurred in our source regions.

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Out to T+240 cold pattern remains in place. Very close to the ECM chart at the same point.

Poor to very poor for the populous areas of the UK. I fear a cold rain fest in the SE and 6c daytime temps. Utterly miserable!

You haven't shown charts of the Arctic though.

If you had, we'd be able to see that the Arctic hasn't warmed, sadly or otherwise. It's simply a case of the cold being over the Siberian Arctic this year ...

And that Siberian cold was absent in 1981, because it was over the Pole instead:

We're not that long into winter though; maybe it a month or two's time, that air source may well be even colder than it is presently.

Brian is referring to the 12z run. As you say the GEFS isn't out yet - it follows on from the operational, which is just reaching its end.

I don't think that the wire isn't going to be reached for another 72 hours, Brian.  Any charts between now and then are just stepping stones to the final destination, whatever that might be.  

True, although if the seasonal forecasts are on the money, December is likely to be the most blocked month of winter, so our best chance for cold incursions is sooner rather than later. 

Thats a big "if", of course!

Snow showers well inland on Friday

Looks a tad further South on the latest fax chart........can all change of course 

Snow showers well inland on Friday

 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Almost as if a special delivery to Banbury from the Irish Sea...

Tractor Boy , I think you could well get a covering .

The 18z OP and Control ( so far )are both decent runs , certainly wouldn't complain about them

With all the talk of marginal it is amazing how often the M4 corridor is the border. If you look at the UKMO fax T+120 the 528 dam dotted line could be the actual M4 to London! I guess the Cotswolds and Chilterns higher ground to the north of it are a factor. 

Agree. The BBC weather app is showing the same for Banbury as for Southam so I'm guessing they could well make it down the A423. Fingers crossed.

The control is also very cold keeping us in the cold ..

Could you let me have the link to this please?

The rain /snow event  for Sunday has shifted further north again and wasn't expected to reach Scotland at all. But good news for them and bad news for us southerners.

Well, at least with the resulting rainfall in the south, those of you down there wouldn't have to be worrying so much about the possibility of a drought with that.