It is very sad news indeed.

What the GFS is playing with is just smart High Pressure that is kick baiting out any cold air that tries to even get close to the UK.

The ECMWF turns it colder by the night of Monday the 29th, and carries on with quite a good set of charts that if proved correct would mean cold and possibly wintry and frosty weather indeed.

But the frosts in the South are not going to be that easy to get though!, next week by Thursday they could be.

Some wet and windy cold weather next week with chance of some sleet and snow showers in the North and NW parts in particular.

It could be cold and chilly this Thursday and Friday, dry and mild this weekend and on Monday next week with light westerly winds.

The ECMWF is out on it's own but the GEM is getting it's idea by Tuesday next week.

The general consensus for Tuesday next week is a cold NW flow taking over, but after that we wait and see.  The ECMWF and the GFS Ensembles for London look interesting, particularly cold is the ECMWF for London.

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A fire has shut down the supercomputer at the Met Office in Exeter, with disruption to the UK's forecasting service.Today secrecy surrounds the extent of the impact after what is described as a 'fire-related incident' in the IT hall.

As staff arrived as the Met Office, which employs more than 1,000 people in Exeter, they were greeted by signs in reception telling them not to attempt to log on to their computers.

They were also warned no to discuss the problems on social media.

The Met Office also refused to be interviewed on camera for DevonLive.com at 9am.

http://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/incident-shuts-down-met-office-1103779

BBC not emphasising story and seems to be only a local Devon story atm.

Snow in the saraha made the news a few weeks back... this mornings run would make that twice in the same winter.  

Chart also shows the growing trend of Eastern europe into the chiller.  Hopefully the HP cell will correct north and introduce some of that cold air west wards towards the UK.

But ill still be happy with dry weather 

Why the heck is that the case? Are they worried the Russians will use the opportunity to march across the European plain? Surely ECM provides enough redundancy and is generally regarded as better anyway. 

Why the heck is that the case? Are they worried the Russians will use the opportunity to march across the European plain? Surely ECM provides enough redundancy and is generally regarded as better anyway. 

Perhaps it was a "halt and catch fire" instruction issued by some "outside" agency?... (dons tinfoil hat....)

A UK high with the Eastern EU getting colder, its a trend I would like to see more of. From that chart anything from the South East is going to be cold  

Meto supercomputer fire...

Probably caused by an overnight "Blowtorch" run on GFFS overnight 

Interestingly, we are forecast heavy rain in conjunction with the strong(ish) winds. That's not a common combination, as usually when we get strong winds, any rain associated with the low is on the other side where the winds are less strong. If anything it's usually quite sunny during gales.

ISN'T THIS WHAT HAPPENED LAST WINTER 2016/17!? It's a long way off at least for this to change!

LOL classic 

Eastern Europe looks the place to be for cold,,,,,,,, brrrrr

it would be hilarious to think that the computer caught fire because it just cant handle the complexities of the runs over the UK.  Run after run of number crunching to get it wrong.

It just couldnt take any more, and killed itself.

hello goodbye world

only just got chance to look at the GEFS for the 6z run

They look alot warmer than yesterday.  The scatter grouping to me says most are siding with the idea of us being to the centre or north of the forecasted HP cell.  The sharper lower numbers would be more or less scenarios of us to the south of the HP cell.

Yesterday there was a greater scatter to us being to the south of the HP cell.

All to play for.

Would it give more confidence if the Control or OP run went for one of the colder options?

UKMO running again

I sort of miss the model mayhem 😉

The idea of an easterly hanging on by its fingertips but whilst such a vast array of options remains there’s always a chance.

I'll give a little historical analogy. GFS looks a bit like late January 2003 in FI. Who remembers the infamous M11 snow event?

There is more general consensus that GFS is now picking up the ECMWF Signals and GEM, NAVGEM and ICON will follow suit.

We need more runs for the next 6 days at least, as for the weather outlook from the Tuesday 30th is concerned to upto the 5th February.

FI follows after that!.

Cold weather with chance of rain sleet and hill snow is there in the making, cold NW flows.

The Retrogression of the Western Europe Bartlett Azores High to relocate in Mid Central N Atlantic is a good sign.

ECMWF and GFS need to keep outputting these scenarios as for us in NW Europe we need them to forgive us for the current mild weather they brought for us, and this mild and cloudy weather is staying with us right across to include Monday 29th Feb.

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Further updates will be posted by me if the situation can unload cold Canadian Greenland and Iceland-Arctic Cold plunges on a NW SE pushing Jetstream- I tend to enjoy that weather a lot!!.

A legendary event in these parts.

Your Video Kev , classic stuff

https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=217s&v=7TU_OK4Vr94

I think there's a bit of that - problem with the GFS 12z Op is when you look at the ens it's one of the few properly cold members and there's a lot of scatter. Pressure wise the ens are still fairly confident that London will be under the influence of high pressure but where it sits is very much up in the air (assuming the general pattern even verifies).

Bar the odd period of a few days the GFS ens have had a few easterly stragglers for about 4-5 weeks now - suggests there's a low chance of an Easterly but until we get something closer to the reliable and it has a lot more support it's hard to get too worked up about it, even if it does look nice

Most of us, even some of the diehards on the other side have accepted we are chasing rainbows this winter. I have totally lost interest now, I only briefly scan the ens means and that's it

I wouldn't take any output for a week ahead or more seriously at all at the moment, be it cold or mild solutions.

When it comes to developments 6 or more days ahead, the models have often been all over the place. Look at the ECM v GFS stand-off just after New Year, for example.

Agreed. I think about the only thing we can take from the ensembles is that after this weekend, high pressure is likely to be largely in control for the next 10 days: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png