GEFS not conclusive, but our best option looks to be a meridonal block or "Murr sausage" advecting some colder air into the SE corner. Northern blocking looks very unlikely as has been the case all season

Models will never be conclusive until T+72 for an easterly so pointless futile to expect any more than general probability trends at >T+200.  

As it is 10 or 11 hit -10c in London at some point over this period, so not at all bad.

another one night stand with the northerly +276

Actually rather more than one night - the last week of the GFS run is a bit of a snowfest.

yeah right: - but at least there are signs of Arctic blocking at end of FI

I have seen all of the GFS and UKMO, GFS USA and Northern Hemisphere Charts.

There is cold Low Pressure areas, and Blocking High's Between Alaska and NE Russia (SIB et all) and an Arctic High as well.

Mild air and SW to NE moving Jetstream is there as well, and so are Cold NW plunges, Siberian High and Central N Atlantic High as well.

This means the there is a lot of mixing going on the the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere, organised areas of High Pressure- less cold and mild weather.

SW flows going NE, and Cold NW SE plunging Low Pressures in various parts of Northern Hemisphere- so quite a dry situation but wintry weather is going to occur but will not be in all areas at all- it will influence less areas!!!.

For us in the UK it looks pretty nice, and I can see that after 144 hrs between 168hrs to 192hrs and between 216 and 240 it looks like cold and wintry weather is still a possibillity as far as GFS is concerned lol!.

And we all are aware that that is well into the future anyway so do not be to worried yet, I'd start hopecasting Come within 48rs of said events, for Wednesday Thursday and also Saturday and Sunday 31 January 1 Feb and 3-5 February hopeful but not yet certain.

GFS looks a bit too good, I like the Central N Atlantic High and the fact that West to east moving Low Pressure will affect NE and E Europe and push that cold pool a bit more to east and NE, while the UK does indeed turn quite cold and snowy ahem.

.

Pleasantly settled weather upto Midday on Tuesday 30th January, from this Friday onwards I think....

Number 12 tonight, please!

#footofsnow #1980s (Yeah, I know hashtags don't mean anything - but wow, that'd be one fierce snowstorm. The 500hPa chart shows a mean old upper cold pool too, there would be a foot of level snow for sure from that down here... and for some way inland, too).

Rubbish tonight. Of course, number 12 is so far on its own as to be daft (it has highs of -2C and -3C across southern England) but there are still a number with less potent easterlies.

As ever, unlikely to come off (an easterly in general, that is) but at least it's nice eye-candy!

Yes something that keeps the hope going. One day! Was looking at the archive charts and Jan '87 for our neck of the woods. When you run the sequence seems such a freak how the cold got here compared to recent times. Don't even get a real sniff nowadays.

It seems some of the Eastern promise is fading into a Turkish non-Delight. Still, whilst there's still some tasty options there's hope I guess.

I'm back after a 3 day model break. Nothing has changed. Any potential is at arms length. What is different is that we are 3 days closer to Spring. 

Interesting how the mid Atlantic ridge never really moves:

that azores high will move away come spring you see..

Mid Atlantic or Azores HP? or same thing?

Yes I bet and we will get blocking and an easterly in March into April just when we don't want it!!

Quite a few cold ensembles:

No need to go digging in the ensembles this morning, the op run delivers a proper blast from the east - in FI, of course.

There were quite a few cold runs in last night's 18z GEFS. It still doesn't approach that amazing 12z GEFS suite a couple of days ago, but it's moving in the right direction.

The fly in the ointment is EPS, though; even as GEFS has been gaining easterly members, EPS has been losing them. And in both cases, the chances of an easterly actually happening are at most 25%.

Yes, three or four sub -10 850hPA runs in the 0z GEFS. The chance of something colder from the east is still a possibility as the month draws to a close but it remains just that, a possibility!