The pressure over Iceland and Greenland and north get's lower and lower each run - I wonder what the 12z run will show mild southerly at 300z?

Steve Murr has posted the NAO chart on NW, not one day has it gone negative this winter 4 weeks and a few days until spring now

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89199-model-output-discussion-mid-january/?do=findComment&comment=3729242

It’s a bit ironic that Steve is calling out posters for getting over-excited, but I’ve known Steve since the old BBC board days and actually have a lot of time for his posting style.

I did notice that - the last time the NAO was negative was in November- as soon as winter kicked in after that end of Nov colder snap and flurry in London we go positive - Why is there so much energy in the Atlantic given the easterly QBO and La Nina? How common is this to be in such a positive NAO for such a long period of time? or do we need a westerly QBO and El Nino to go Negative?

Or even winter 2016/2017 it happened time and time again!

So it looks like another mishap for us and a failure at a mid winter easterly or proper cold spell.

Yes, he does explain his thoughts even if he is something of a coldie. Plus, that post shows very strongly that he is at heart inclined to be realistic.

The comment about the NAO being positive throughout the winter was interesting and shows that it’s not a barrier to transient cold and snow even for parts of the south.

His point about all these supposedly independent indices all being derived from one source should be stickied...!

There’s still eye-candy but restricted to the latter members. Pert 20 is as Stella as they come. Still a fading trend though and all rather dissapointing.

It failed the basic tests - no cross-model support, no ensemble support and never within a sensible timeframe.

I understand the disappointment but you must know it was nothing more than a slim possibility?

SW coastal Holland ens - a reasonable proxy for SE England (not withstanding cross channel modification).

Control was coldest member, op goes warmer in the area of interest circa 6 Feb.

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest

Easterly chances are fading.  Death knell should be delivered by Tuesday at the latest.

Click on Climate then click on the year.

Question Why is there so much energy in the Atlantic given the easterly QBO and La Nina?

Answer :Because the correlation  between QBO / La Nina and the NAO is a weak one.

I'll try and dig out  the figures I did a few years  ago.

good point. 

Easterly promise now fading quickly, the sooner we get to spring the better

Not so many easterlies but plenty of snow rows. The stellar run is 20, Take a look its a thing of wonder.