Real snowfest from Wed 7th onwards. 

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk

But I'm not sur I believe it as the snow comes in from the NW - a few days ago the same forecaster brought the snow in from the E!

Typical dross this coming week with limited sunshine, rain, drizzle, wind, showers and some mist/fog.

Any wintry stuff, as always, most likely in the N and on higher ground at that.

An E'ly at some point?

Never on the cards IMO. There are always some rogue runs within GEFS but as we head into February, it is very much a case of looking W and NW for our weather.

The EPS this morning retains its easterly cluster. Indeed, the control run has a long-lasting easterly flow...

...for the Netherlands, as it turns out. Here it's a weaker affair, but the -10C 850 line does affect the UK for a bit.

Well I don't know about that but I do remember last year's debacle. People that disagreed with his claims of a mega cold spell were treated disrespectfully on here by inferring it wouldn't happen. I suppose what goes round comes round.

I'm glad that over here people don't follow personality cults that lead people up the garden path. The last time SM was on here who made a big wrong call on an easterly, vented some fury at me and disappeared.

Looking ahead at the possibilities on this occasion I think it will be a case of how far West we can back the set-up, overall factors look to favour Scandinavian blocking certainly more towards mid Feb

Indeed - nice looking evolution. Edit: The ECM mean at 192 isn’t too  shabby either.

I think at the very least we can pin a date as a ‘trigger’ point when the easterly may or may not evolve - and that’s the ‘third’ transit low moving across on the 4th Feb. Dive SE, raise heights enough behind it, allow a sufficient break before the next break off of energy from the west and bingo. No proper ridging and WAA behind this low and bust.

Its a very simple description but the date is now coming onto the sub 180hr page.

Or it could just be the almost stereotypically common GFS thing of picking up on a cold signal, overplaying it, getting it closer to the reliable, overplaying the Atlantic and removing the cold signal only to pick it back up over the course of the next 4 or 5 runs, until you get a not quite so nice version of what it toyed with in FI.

I guess we'll find out

Objectively there's no doubt the 00z has watered things down this morning and is showing a fairly standard 'pressure tries to build, Atlantic shoves it away from anywhere interesting' scenario. There is enough cold air floating around to mean it gets dragged over us at times so it's not an overtly warm run, just not an overtly cold one either.

ECM this morning is nicely poised with chilly/cold air over the UK and some proper cold just to our east but also a big chunk of the PV over N.America/Canada migrating over Greenland, set to dump cold air in to the Atlantic and give the jet a kick. Personally I don't think this precludes an Easterly as the key thing will be how far the PV lobe moves East and the angle etc. of the jet. 

All good clean model watching fun - it's surely still better than a screaming zonal pattern and looking at T384 for a slightly longer lasting lee northerly

SO not only was the easterly a no go but the dry spell is a no go' as well?

Gosh I worry for France too, esp Paris:

True but the nationawide snow event at T384 will very unlikely happen, but prior to that in FI - it's nice to be reminded where the M4 is for the 5th time this winter: 

 - WELL IF WE WEREN'T GOING TO GET AN EASTERLY i WAS AT LEAST LOOKING FORWARD TO some quiter and drier weather with some cold frosty settled nights and dry days but clearly this isn;t to be - also the Atlantic is so ADHD this winter . It's always been positive AO all winter. I don't know why the models are flipping back to a very unsettled first 2nd week of Feb. unless this is a temporary blip!?

A quick look at the model output this morning makes me think the most likely scenerio is a series of NW outbreaks bringing wintry showers to the north , followed by a ridge bringing some settled weather followed by a brief spell of milder weather. Then repeat. Seems a small chance that around 6th Feb instead of the milder air toppling in from the west, the block will hold firm introducing some continental air.

A horror show of a winter in the far south and worse than 2013/14 IMO. At least in 2013/14 constant phantom distant easterlies never appeared and therefore expectations were firmly kept in check. 

GFS run maybe a warning sign to people guessing!

Not over yet at +189 - signs of a lukewarm fart from the east:

Indeed and at least the south got some cold frosty nights - this winter we have had virtually none - maybe 2 or 3 but even so the lowest temp so far this winter has been -1.3c back during the beginning of December. Any snow was transient and just over higher ground but the south never even saw a flake and very unlikely will do. Even winters like 2013/14 or 14/15 as well as 15/16 didn't really see lying snow or wet snow to lower ground but at the very least we did have some severe frosts to make up for it - last year we saw lows of -3 to -5c in the south one night in December, Jan and 10th Feb if I recall. We just can't get any cold frosty nights this winter let alone sustained colder spell with snow.

Sorry should be in rant thread !

Yet again - HP building over Alaska and NW Canada and pushes the LOW pressure systems towards north America and gives them colder weather and pushes the PV into Greenland which then squashes/flatterns the Scandi block to our east thus, ruin our chances of any prolonged cold spell, but yet still gives N. America esp the central south and eastern coast a cold wintry spell of weather whilst we miss out yet again!!!!!!!

If only? A possibility but so unlikely!! This is ensemble no 20

I'm close to deleting some users again. Remember that although it's getting close to the end of the winter you'll not be back next season if your account has been deleted. 

I think the same rule that has applied for much of this winter wrt the model output still applies now, which is that anything for more than 6-7 days ahead should be taken with rather a large dose of salt. The way I'm looking at things right now, it seems that almost anything could happen from next weekend going forward as the models seem to be all over the place as far as I can see.

Hope i am ok?

You will be if you stop asking stupid questions like that. 

Maybe not even 6-7 days but I agree the basic point.  I may be wrong but the models seem to have been particularly inconsistent this winter and for me it’s made commenting more difficult.  Generally you’d expect to spot trends emerging 10+ days out, with repeat patterns and cross-model indicators; this year there seems to have been so much flip-flopping.

Having said that, GFS was showing a cold interlude for next weekend but not with any consistency even of the broad pattern.

It’s still a case of watching the jetstream; that will determine whether an easterly is possible.  At the moment the twin themes of proximity of high pressure to our south-west and energy in the northern arm still look to be the threat to any cold spell (as opposed to a 24-48 hr cold snap).