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Retron
28 January 2018 17:23:23


Control is decent on 12z GFS, on Feb 5th better than op.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Two separate hits of -12s down here - great stuff. Looks to be more easterlies than the 6z set too.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
ballamar
28 January 2018 17:34:54


 


Two separate hits of -12s down here - great stuff. Looks to be more easterlies than the 6z set too.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


could go wrong but looking like potentially memorable

Retron
28 January 2018 17:50:04
The 12z GEFS is the coldest set of ensembles so far down here. No fewer than 12 (>50%) of the members show -10C being breached at 850 and the T2M maximas overall are the lowest so far too.

Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
28 January 2018 17:54:18

Here we go!


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
nsrobins
28 January 2018 18:05:43

The 12z GEFS is the coldest set of ensembles so far down here. No fewer than 12 (>50%) of the members show -10C being breached at 850 and the T2M maximas overall are the lowest so far too.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes the mean is down a notch again to -6 at times. As I said earlier I’d now like to see more bunching of the -10 or so runs from around Feb 5th when the final trigger low is due to drop SE. 

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Chiltern Blizzard
28 January 2018 18:06:39


Here we go!


 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Still substantial scatter but best ensembles so far... 11 (edit: sorry, 12) including control dip below -10c and a total of 95 on snow rows!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
JACKO4EVER
28 January 2018 18:09:34
Buchan February cold spell anyone ?
JACKO4EVER
28 January 2018 18:11:17
If it gets to the 3 day period nailed then I’m onboard. Until then it’s just eye candy, easterlies are rare beasts, notoriously fickle and easily Downgraded at a moments notice.
jhall
28 January 2018 18:11:58

For once the operational run seems in good agreement with the ensemble mean, at least as far as the 850 mb temperature is concerned. One interesting thing that I noticed is that the 30 year mean 850mb temperature is as much as 2 degrees lower on the 9th February compared to the start of the month. I can only assume that that is the result of a greater chance, climatologically speaking, of a continental influence as we go further into the month.

Cranleigh, Surrey
Brian Gaze
28 January 2018 18:17:19


For once the operational run seems in good agreement with the ensemble mean, at least as far as the 850 mb temperature is concerned. One interesting thing that I noticed is that the 30 year mean 850mb temperature is as much as 2 degrees lower on the 9th February compared to the start of the month. I can only assume that that is the result of a greater chance, climatologically speaking, of a continental influence as we go further into the month.


Originally Posted by: jhall 


I stand to be corrected but from recollection believe the CET reaches its lowest point in mid Feb too.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
28 January 2018 18:18:19
No-one in the know has mentioned massive grit orders or early warnings of no leave !! Feel sad no claims have been made yet
bledur
28 January 2018 18:35:18

from the plymouth herald ..


 


Freezing February to bring SNOW showers, says Met Office


Plymouth and the rest of the UK could be in for a bitterly cold month, according to weather experts

Sevendust
28 January 2018 18:47:18


 


I stand to be corrected but from recollection believe the CET reaches its lowest point in mid Feb too.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


As mentioned elsewhere, the Buchan singularity ;)

David M Porter
28 January 2018 18:55:58


from the plymouth herald ..


 


Freezing February to bring SNOW showers, says Met Office


Plymouth and the rest of the UK could be in for a bitterly cold month, according to weather experts


Originally Posted by: bledur 


Probably best mentioned in the media thread, IMO.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Karl Guille
28 January 2018 18:57:20
Pleasantly surprised by this afternoon's 12z GEFS. Obviously for the Channel Island's this is the dream scenario so I won't be getting too excited just yet but the derailment that was looming yesterday seems to have been corrected some!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012812/graphe3_1000_218.0399932861328_251.01998901367187___.gif 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Phil G
28 January 2018 18:59:56
I'm not too enamoured with the ECM run.
Whether Idle
28 January 2018 19:07:33

I'm not too enamoured with the ECM run.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Its an all too possible, if not to say probable outcome. Remember how many true strong deep cold easterlies we've had in early February since 1991....very very few.


Despite some eye candy on offer in the GEFS, at present the chances of a decent easterly are possibly around 1/3 at best IMHO.  So 2/3 against - and that may take the form of a north westerly of some type, or anti-cyclonic dominance, which is far more run of the mill.


My mind set is for an anti-cyclonic period in the coldish category.  If the charts are looking good for Tuesday 6th by Thursday 12zs though, (t120) my view will change.


 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Chiltern Blizzard
28 January 2018 19:26:47


from the plymouth herald ..


 


Freezing February to bring SNOW showers, says Met Office


Plymouth and the rest of the UK could be in for a bitterly cold month, according to weather experts


Originally Posted by: bledur 


 


A bold statement to make for the favoured areas, but for Plymouth!.... well, i suppose anything under 5c probably counts as bitter there...

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Cumbrian Snowman
28 January 2018 19:33:41
Several on the forum often mention the suns strength as we head towards Spring and the effect on lying snow for example. I have spent the last 20mins on Google but cant really find anything that would back this up, in fact I cant find much about it all ? or perhaps not the answer I was looking for.

At my weather station I do record the suns strength in W/m2
Winter average is 230W/m2
Spring Average 780W/m2
Summer Average 940W /m2
Autumn average 440W /m2

February roughly 360W /m2 which is only similar to a good or above average November.

So perhaps I am trying to say for me at a northerly location the suns strength is only felt as we go into March, as my records would suggest its strength at this time of year is only similar to early November.

Paul C
Brampton, Cumbria 117m ASL
http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk 
Follow me on Twitter 
tallyho_83
28 January 2018 19:50:10


 


Probably best mentioned in the media thread, IMO.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


That's from the Express is it not?

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Polar Low
28 January 2018 19:54:00

It’s about the tilt of the earth axis


https://www.loc.gov/rr/scitech/mysteries/seasons.html


 


 


Several on the forum often mention the suns strength as we head towards Spring and the effect on lying snow for example. I have spent the last 20mins on Google but cant really find anything that would back this up, in fact I cant find much about it all ? or perhaps not the answer I was looking for.

At my weather station I do record the suns strength in W/m2
Winter average is 230W/m2
Spring Average 780W/m2
Summer Average 940W /m2
Autumn average 440W /m2

February roughly 360W /m2 which is only similar to a good or above average November.

So perhaps I am trying to say for me at a northerly location the suns strength is only felt as we go into March, as my records would suggest its strength at this time of year is only similar to early November.

Originally Posted by: Cumbrian Snowman 

Polar Low
28 January 2018 20:00:12

Indeed a relentless challenge almost as bad as my first wife at least I could get out of that but model watching I can’t seem too


looked for frogs today none,  daffs out in a week I would say


 



How many weeks have deep FI been pushing deep cold only for it to be all gone by reasonable timeframe?


We are getting a little long in the tooth this winter for anything truely stunning to happen?


Might as well look forward to the frogs sounding out and daffs starting to open.....and the hunt for the first 21c of the year!


Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf 

Phil G
28 January 2018 20:13:02

As the jet stream is a main driver, does anyone have analysis going back a number of years on its behaviour.
You cannot look at one year in isolation but over a period is it:
More intense than previous periods. May suggest where everything gets pushed more east nowadays, even thunderstorms.
Does it kink more than usual, or flatline more.
By latitude, is it generally running higher now. May suggest less cold spells.

The Beast from the East
28 January 2018 20:15:15

ECM mean looks poor, we can probably put the scandi high dream to bed and move onto Spring warmth from the azores high pushing in. 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Polar Low
28 January 2018 20:20:18

Yawn Beast,, why dont you get your sun cream now its out of season and on offer at @oots at the moment.


 



ECM mean looks poor, we can probably put the scandi high dream to bed and move onto Spring warmth from the azores high pushing in. 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

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