according to GP 7-10 latest forecast GP said at the end of the 7-10 we will have HP slap bang over the UK.

Have to agree with you. I think the best case scenario is cool and dry-ish for the SE with a daytime max @5c. That would be deemed cold by todays standards. I think the only difference next week is that it will  warmer, wetter and windier in the North.

Today I had one of the coldest mornings at -2c. Lets put things into perspective. Moscow has yet to manage 10 degrees of frost this winter and Eastern Europe is and has been very mild throughout. The camels are suffering from cold and snow and I think the models are suggesting another Atlantic dominated month as we move into February. Would not of course say this is definite but one has to look at the trend this winter as to how things have evolved.

Don’t forget Valentine’s Day soon 

The ukmo day 6 is not far off stunning this morning Best of the bunch by miles . Ecm has again taken a step towards it this morning and isn't bad up to day 8. Gfs however is very progressive again. Will be interesting to see the ukmo day 7 later.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

There's still a (remote) chance, but I'm not expecting one. The chances of a deep cold easterly have dropped markedly IMO in the last 36 hours, due to our old friend the raging jet from the west.

That'll be 22 years since the last mid-winter easterly with powder etc. I do wonder sometimes whether I'll see another one before I die...

I am a secret closet fan of looking at the 30 mb charts purely for experimental purposes and doesn't always correspond with surface conditions, in other words, JFF but this did make me lift a right eyebrow in mild intrigue. Yes, it is at 15 days, etc, etc . . .

Hard to disagree with most of the comments above.

The chances of a 'proper' easterly have dwindled, with the GFS ens only having the odd member that bring a couple of days of colder easterly air before it's displaced by the Atlantic.

One thing that's been noticeable is the trend for less HP influence - be interesting to know if the PV invigorating over Canada/Greenland was a coincidence that's helped to scupper/reduce the chances of an Easterly or a result of the broader scale drivers that also made blocking over Scandi more likely.

Things still aren't looking all that warm though and the GFS Op has snow falling throughout most of the run with milder interludes too. Snow biased to Scotland but also right down here at times so it won't be without interest if it does verify.

I guess there's still a low chance that the jet is being overplayed and this will allow blocking to establish and have more of a say in our weather but chilly/cold and unsettled seems more likely, with some mild interludes as warm sectors roll through.

Also worth remembering I suppose that the Easterly was never the most likely solution anyway so it's not surprising to see this signal reducing, just annoying

Indeed. When I see charts like this morning's I wish we could fast forward to the Grand National and Easter so I can start earning some dosh. 

What's annoying me is not the reversal of the Easterly but the onset of cold rain/drizzle.  Just the worst weather.

Roll on spring

That's a classic zonal set of ENS! 

“But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand.” 
― Jerome K. Jerome, Three Men in a Boat

truth ln that.

The average maximum for London at the end of January is just above 8C: I’d say the label ‘cold’ to describe 5C was fair.   If it was down to 1-2C I’d say ‘very cold’.  It’s very seldom colder than that in London, so the choice of language seems about right.

As for the prospects, it looks as if more changeable weather may be arriving; but a week ago it looked like high pressure dominating so who knows.

At least the models have finally been programmed this year to send the continental cold south to Greece, the Balkans and N.Africa. We haven't had our perennial saga of the cold being modeled west right over us only for it to slide SE two days out !

To me the Azores HP has been the fly in the ointment this winter. Dominant with perpetual northerly incursions but never really getting far enough north to create permanent cold and no northern blocking to link to. This has led to a number of minor N/NW situations before it flattens and goes home. At least no Bartlett highs but it has resulted in the South getting an insipid winter with hardly any frosts, a couple of minor snow falls. Cloudy and drizzly a lot of the time and with the Atlantic not dominating in a low pressure sense no real dramatic weather.

If by ‘South’ you mean the coastal counties of England then you may have a point. 

Depending on context ‘South’ could mean anywhere south of the Midlands and then your comment would be highly inaccurate.

Here, for example, we’ve had two substantial snowfalls; one ‘disruptive’ for a day.  We’ve had countless overnight frosts as well.  

Plus, there’s a third of winter left and the models aren’t reliable more than a few days out.

Gfs 6z still a million miles from the Ecm let alone the ukmo. GFS has has probably the best winter out the big 3 but this would be its biggest victory yet as its so different to the other 2. Hopefully it's wrong this time and the ukmo is on the money.

If it was ‘old’ GFS I’d be more hopeful it was wrong but it’s performed well this season and you have to say that once it switches it’s got the jump on the other two and has the right idea. 

Maybe UKM is correct but I’d say it’s odds on that the easterly signal is only just clinging on by its fingertips this morning. Damn shame - was hoping for at least one snowfall this winter down here (South as in South of the M4 corridor lol)

Nationwide snow event ha jff @ +252:

But again the block develops over NW Canada and Alaska to give N. America, southern plains and eastern seaboard a severe Arctic cold spell like over Xmas and into first half of January! The northern block is on the wrong side of the Arctic to give NW Europe colder weather. That Alaskan and NW Canadian HP will push cold air out of the Arctic and plunge all the Lows and cold into N. America and then blast up the jet off the eastern seaboard and then provide us with endless cyclongenises, which isn't good esp as the NAO will stay positive ?

Plus we have no blocking over Greenland, Svalbard, Iceland or Northern Scandinavia and any ridge will struggle to build with this below set up/. - Look how active the .N. Atlantic is!! At the best we will get cold zonality. Just when you thought the Atlantic was going to settle down and bring us some dry cold and frosty even wintry weather we see the jet blast up and the Atlantic onslaught coming at us once again.

Now I'm wondering if you have a sideline as a bookmaker. :)

I think most of us here would agree with this sadly. The GFS  aint the crazy joker in the pack anymore. The lack of Pub run specials is a sure sign of that. 

Having said that the 6z has some proper cold zonal conditions but as you say that's not much help to the far south who've had another poor winter so far.

Such a shame. Winter is over.  (for the south).

A winter full of disappointments here with only a couple of days of falling sleet or wet snow to show for all of our efforts. Its the end of January now. Its beautiful out there now our second frost of the month has melted.. Time to start getting excited about longer day length and a warming sun.

After tonight's 12z run when the final nail on the latest whiff of an easterly is completely distinguished I shall be taking a one month break from rainbow chasing.

February still offers a great deal of interest for many in the Midlands northwards so please enjoy. 

Here in Kent without that mid winter easterly we may as well live in another country.