There's 23 snow rows for up here.

I think it's a case of model-fatigue, coupled with the South-Easterners getting mesmerised by the dangling carrot of a 'long fetch easterly' and being blindsided to anything else.

I think there's decent confidence for high pressure to our west to become influential over the next few days, bringing some cool-to-coldish 850's, but nothing that will deliver lying snow away from altitude. The high will then semi-topple, introducing some milder air. Confidence diminishes after this - most favoured evolution IMO is for the high to plonk its derrier over ol' Blighty, but it may position/ridge NE'wards.

None of the high res models are showing anything down here. I think it's the usual case of the GFS getting happy with the snow shading when there might be a splodge of sleet. 

Thanks for the replies, Saint and Rob K.

Probably nothing to get too excited about so. Just goes to show how unreliable those snow rows are, if taken in isolation.  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_150_2.png

Finely balanced will that waft inflate the high to the north

Not this time looks to be a milder run

‘Mesmerised’ is sort of understandable though when pretty much the only set-up that delivers snow down here is an easterly (very rare exceptions of course). 

Today has not been a good one for us dreamers with a tangible reduction in the already low probability of such an elusive set-up, as the current GFS run demonstrates.

for those who have not seen GP latest vid update..

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/  Cold Next Week But Probably Not Very Cold

Looks like coldest temperatures will stay on the other side of the North Sea/Channel next week... It will be a very close run thing though.

Just for the south?

Even Steve Murr, the Pied Piper of the Easterly, himself, is quiet.

Which is just as well as I find the greater Steve Murr's ramping, the greater the models goes tits up.

haha ok so some people live up north - looks interesting for the UK

Yes the ukmo goes to the top of the class this afternoon  a decent run. Where it goes from day 6 difficult to say but it looks the very cold air is on the way from the east.

Now I know why:

Another PV Arctic plunge for N. America with daytime maxes of -12c over NEW York City if this verifies.

Thanks to the NW Canadian Block and Alaskan high it's buggered things up for us, this will push cold air into the NE of America/Canada and blast up the jet and flattern any ridge over Greenland! We will never get a Greenland, Iceland or Svalbard or Northern Scandinavian HP block with charts like this. There is northern blocking but once again it's right over North western Canada & Alaska ! So the wrong place yet again!!!

Looking mild across whole of Europe - not even northern Scandinavia get's to much below 0c:

That's the op run, though, which is very much an outlier at that timepoint. It's the warmest of al the runs at Feb 9th, nearly 10C above the mean (and 16C above the coldest run).

The ensemble hasn't changed that much. The mean is pulled up a bit by a mild cluster around the 8th, but it's basically meteorological linguine from the 5th.

Highly variable outlook in the GFS Ens: the control is up and down almost throughout the run.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=697

Some of the Ps are more continuous but there's a lot of undulation, and therefore a lot of capacity for changes, generally.

Darren's analogy a few days ago about the rock on the see saw is still applicable

GFS seems unable to disrupt the northern jet enough with pulses of WAA. UKMO looks like it is about to make it, but its very finely balance. THe METO outlook earlier does suggest Exeter seem to think a block will develop

Indeed, nothing much has really changed for several days now. We're seeing the second northerly push of warm air in around 3 days, but that isn't going to (and never was going to) bring a change.

The third pulse is still likely to happen, now down to 6 days out, but we're no further towards knowing whether it'll be enough to tip the balance [towards a cold outbreak] or not.

ECM looking pretty uninspiring, it must be said. A very positive NAO pattern setting up.

Yes a really poor set-up going forward

The period beginning early next week is FI right now as far as I'm concerned, and I suspect it might be Wednesday or Thursday at the earliest before we get a firmer idea of what happens after next weekend. The models seem to be all over the place big time right now. Just look at the end of the ECM 12z op and note the difference between the way it ends and the way the 00z run ended.

They don't seem to have a clue right now.

Yeah, 1040mb high over Scandinavia in one week really sucks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=168&mode=1&nh=1

You have already made similar comments this winter Ian, yet in the end, what transpired wasn't as bad as what you appeared to believe would happen.

The atlantic has been active this winter, but it has not dominated our weather in quite the same way that has been the case in many winters in the last 30 years.

I think its a pretty good run definitely a shift to the ukmo. At 168 it could go either way expect some very good ensembles .