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Saint Snow
30 January 2018 14:58:18


Not here.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 


Nor here.


(we've had two pathetic patchy dustings of a snow pellet/flake mix this winter)



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
chelseagirl
30 January 2018 15:20:06

[quote=mrspatch;966516]


 


 


I watch from afar several times a day during winter with hope of snow (live in snowless North East Kent), and every year see all the bitching, hormonal posts from all the men 


 


Gee, it's infuriating at times 


Louise


 


 


Me too. I read several times a day when exciting weather is on the horizon. Pity it always seems to stay there though. Don’t post as I don’t know enough, and don’t fancy being shouted down. 🙂


The Fenlands of Cambridgeshire
ballamar
30 January 2018 15:20:12
Has anyone said next runs are crucial?.......haha
Solar Cycles
30 January 2018 15:22:44


[quote=mrspatch;966516]


 


 


I watch from afar several times a day during winter with hope of snow (live in snowless North East Kent), and every year see all the bitching, hormonal posts from all the men 


 


Gee, it's infuriating at times 


Louise


 


 


Me too. I read several times a day when exciting weather is on the horizon. Pity it always seems to stay there though. Don’t post as I don’t know enough, and don’t fancy being shouted down. 🙂


Originally Posted by: chelseagirl 

Don't know enough....... Not many of us do but it still doesn’t stop us posting CG. 


Get posting. 😎

Chunky Pea
30 January 2018 15:24:53

That is some temp gradient out in the Atlantic at day 10 on the this morning's ECM run 


 



 


Storm of the century brewing? or yet another storm in a teacup that we have come to know and love over the last decade? 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
ballamar
30 January 2018 16:07:51
Rob K
30 January 2018 16:09:28
Huge differences in the location of the low pressure even by T108 on the GFS - where 06Z had it moving into Norway, 12Z has it north of Iceland. Not sure what effect that will have down the line.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Russwirral
30 January 2018 16:13:27
Interesting. The GFS now looks alot more like the Meto that was used on last nights Week ahead forecast, with perhaps the Scandi high asserting itself a little more.

the Atlantic starting to look a little blocked in its behaviour despite the lack of presence of a real obvious block.

Could this be the start of something?
Russwirral
30 January 2018 16:14:29
Potentially a very good run... eyes down people!
Brian Gaze
30 January 2018 16:18:50

Genuinely interesting to see what cold wedge of -10C 850s moving in from the Atlantic.


.


 


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
30 January 2018 16:19:35


How bizarre. You'd never guess from looking at this that the -10C 850hpa isotherm is over the UK.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Russwirral
30 January 2018 16:29:31
It is just the UKs luck that we could have -10*C air from the east, -10*c air from the west, and still end up snowless.

Europe takes the mystery prize
Quantum
30 January 2018 16:29:48

I'm not buying into this absurd pattern imo. I think this is either going to trend towards more of a northwesterly or we will actually end up with that pattern but without the ridiculous wedge of arctic air.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
30 January 2018 16:31:58

Looking at the T500s on the NHem makes this a bit easier to understand.



You could almost argue it is the polar vortex. The reason the -10C isotherm is surviving is due to the insane depth of the cold which extends all the way into the stratosphere.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Russwirral
30 January 2018 16:33:05

Its annoying to think that of the say circumference of the earth, there is an area of say 300 mile wide ribbon of air supplying the poles with HP inflating uppers, that the UK is smack bang in the middle of it surrounded by very cold air.


It wont be there on the 18z... but just thought i would point out the irony?


Netweather GFS Image


Quantum
30 January 2018 16:33:44

And jesus christ if it does this for a 2nd time.



2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Russwirral
30 January 2018 16:38:39

I quite like this picture of the Jetstream hitting the block and just disintegrating into bits.


 


Kinda like a jet engine onto a concrete platform


 


Netweather GFS Image


Quantum
30 January 2018 16:46:37

Those 500hpa temperatures are insane.



2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
tallyho_83
30 January 2018 16:50:57

Lovely to look at these nationwide snow charts


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
30 January 2018 16:57:29
Certainly a snowy run, but the GFS seems to be overdoing how cold the 850s are this week (if you compare tomorrow's on GFS against Arpege, say) so I would take it with a pinch of salt!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
30 January 2018 17:01:15

A rather wintry GFS 12z run for northern areas. Were things to verify as shown, I reckon that Scotland and parts of northern England would be lookin at a repeat of the wintry snap a couple of weeks ago.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Nordic Snowman
30 January 2018 17:11:15

I think the interest, once again, is confined to the N with cold W/NW/N winds at times bringing wintry showers and at times, snow to these parts. This has been the pattern by in large for much of the winter.


I never bought into the E'ly which was showing a few days ago and I think it is fair to say that the E'ly risk is diminishing each day - which was always the most likely situation IMHO.


Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Saint Snow
30 January 2018 17:13:23


A rather wintry GFS 12z run for northern areas. Were things to verify as shown, I reckon that Scotland and parts of northern England would be lookin at a repeat of the wintry snap a couple of weeks ago.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


 


Cosmic




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Whether Idle
30 January 2018 17:13:39


Such a shame. Winter is over.  (for the south).


 


After tonight's 12z run when the final nail on the latest whiff of an easterly is completely distinguished I shall be taking a one month break from rainbow chasing.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


I hear you are suffering from "premature 'announciation'" again Steve.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
SnowyHythe(Kent)
30 January 2018 17:22:23


 


I hear you are suffering from "premature 'announciation'" again Steve.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Steve is the ultimate, "Reverse Psychologist", WI..


Sun/Mon onwards next week open to further upgrades...

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