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Shropshire
22 February 2018 16:28:24

Astonishing numbers there Steve for anytime of the winter 

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Nordic Snowman
22 February 2018 16:28:41


 


Rather than remain completely ignorant I had a look.  Not only is the upper warmth kept at bay the surface temps are bone chilling towards the end.


 



Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


Yes - the surface temperature will be a good deal lower than the upper 850s.


My fellow Pomponian is being a little pessimistic 

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
kmoorman
22 February 2018 16:29:39


 


When you get deep cold like this 850s become completely useless to use as a generalized benchmark. They are still useful but you need to change your expectations. 0C is no longer your enemy.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


0c is my friend (but I still like to keep her a safe distance to me south, just in case). 


I wonder if tonight will see the models align on the longer cold spell?   Or is that asking for too much?

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Rob K
22 February 2018 16:30:28
All the output out to T180 is just ludicrously good. The law of averages dictates that ECM will now churn out a wretched run showing mild southwesterlies by T144.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
22 February 2018 16:30:33


Stunning output so far, absolutely amazing. 


The -10C 850 hPa isotherm reaches the east coast at T+84. That's reliable territory and I think now it's full steam ahead for something very special. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_84_2.png


Expect early warnings from tomorrow IMO. 


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


Best output in the internet era for sure. Somehow the 12s have upgraded again!


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Charmhills
22 February 2018 16:34:03

Stunning runs this afternoon from the 12z so far!!!


Detail still to be pinned down over the next few days but without doubt this cold spell is on big time.


And I thought it was cold here today to, compared to next week its nothing.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Whether Idle
22 February 2018 16:34:54

UKMO is stunning.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=96&carte=1021


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=120&carte=1021


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021


Exceptionally cold and probably snowy in the east at least.


The output is getting beyond superlatives.


 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
22 February 2018 16:35:53
Yes my wife got back from her fitness class this morning saying how cold it was, I told her to wait till next week!

Actually I thought it felt pretty chilly today too. Better this afternoon with the sun out but another six degrees colder than today will feel rather cool.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
22 February 2018 16:39:42

Utterly speechless as the upgrades continue. I am starting to think this might be game on, and I might even see a flake or two of snow!


 


That, ladies and gentlemen, is a Moomin RAMP. 


Going to seriously consider beginning to talk about this to friends and family soon.


Maybe tomorrow.


 


Or maybe The Day After Tomorrow!  

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Nordic Snowman
22 February 2018 16:40:36

UKMO 144 is amazing
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png
Quite something to behold
Martin

Originally Posted by: marting 


Pot pourri and bonnet de douche!


UKMO has been on form today and when the other evening readers see this, their eyes will pop; Chateauneuf du Pape.


If ECM sticks to its 00z theme, well.... crème de la Menthe!


 

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Rob K
22 February 2018 16:41:23
GFS goes snow crazy at around 210 hours. A low does a tour of the UK blanketing the whole country (except far SE perhaps).
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Chiltern Blizzard
22 February 2018 16:41:36
Seems like all the early 12z output is exceptionally good for cold! And from t+84 too.... Still being cautious and refuse to say an extreme cold is nailed on until we have cross-model agreement for deep cold at t+72. However, if ECM and ensembles show something similar with no delaying of the cold, I’ll think upgrade my likelihood of a severe cold spell to 90% from 75% yesterday.


Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
pdiddy
22 February 2018 16:42:03


UKMO T144 out, the trouble with these easterlies is that they fall short of the East coast - of America 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


Indeed.  UKMO manages to get colder uppers to the East coast of Greenland.  Must be fairly unusual!

turbotubbs
22 February 2018 16:42:19

Yes my wife got back from her fitness class this morning saying how cold it was, I told her to wait till next week!

Actually I thought it felt pretty chilly today too. Better this afternoon with the sun out but another six degrees colder than today will feel rather cool.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Not just me then - I've been cold all day!


Still concerned (if that's the word) about the snow chances IMBY (west Wilts). I know that features can and will pop up but I have a fear that I might be extremely cold and very, very jealous... I moved from Norfolk in 2005 - right now I wish I was back there!

Chiltern Blizzard
22 February 2018 16:42:32
Brian, what’s your grit index on the 12z ‘s so far.... Do we get a 4.5/5 I wonder?
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
roger63
22 February 2018 16:43:07


Utterly speechless as the upgrades continue. I am starting to think this might be game on, and I might even see a flake or two of snow!


 


That, ladies and gentlemen, is a Moomin RAMP. 


Going to seriously consider beginning to talk about this to friends and family soon.


Maybe tomorrow.


 


Or maybe The Day After Tomorrow!  


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Awesome uppers from MetO 144h!


Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


 


 

LeedsLad123
22 February 2018 16:44:26


Utterly speechless as the upgrades continue. I am starting to think this might be game on, and I might even see a flake or two of snow!


 


That, ladies and gentlemen, is a Moomin RAMP. 


Going to seriously consider beginning to talk about this to friends and family soon.


Maybe tomorrow.


 


Or maybe The Day After Tomorrow!  


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I've said to friends and family that it's supposed to get colder but I haven't said how cold. That's always the kiss of death. 

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
kmoorman
22 February 2018 16:44:50

GFS goes snow crazy at around 210 hours. A low does a tour of the UK blanketing the whole country (except far SE perhaps).

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Boo....    (he says, complaining about fine details on a chart 9 days away)...   

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
SJV
22 February 2018 16:48:56

 


End of next week 

tallyho_83
22 February 2018 16:49:46


Stunning runs this afternoon from the 12z so far!!!


Detail still to be pinned down over the next few days but without doubt this cold spell is on big time.


And I thought it was cold here today to, compared to next week its nothing.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


I know I just logged on - perhaps i sense an upgrade looking at 12z run: Maxes of -2c for Devon and snow for midday Wednesday compared to maxes of +3c and bone dry as shown on the 06z run of the GFS: - Looks like trough's of low pressure systems could appear off English channel. too and move northwestwards into Devon and Cornwall! It could all change in the 18z run but still an upgrade in cold for sure.


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Brian Gaze
22 February 2018 16:50:25

Brian, what’s your grit index on the 12z ‘s so far.... Do we get a 4.5/5 I wonder?

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


5/5 for the Scottish contingent. 4/5 for the south.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gavin D
22 February 2018 16:50:44

ARPEGE sending -16 uppers towards western France -12's up to about Lincolnshire


Brian Gaze
22 February 2018 16:52:13


 


I know I just logged on - perhaps i sense an upgrade: Maxes of -2c for Devon and snow for midday Wednesday compared to maxes of +3c:


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Surely if you're going for +3 to -2 that's a DOWNgrade? 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tallyho_83
22 February 2018 16:55:07


 


Surely if you're going for +3 to -2 that's a DOWNgrade? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


12z chart for Wed mid afternoon: (-2c)



 


06z chart for mid afternoon Wed:


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


kmoorman
22 February 2018 16:56:38


 


12z chart for Wed mid afternoon: (-2c)



 


06z chart for mid afternoon Wed:



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


I'm not sure if you 'got' Brian's joke...   he means downgrade, as in the temps are lower.  

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
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