It’s going to be a close call for us in the far SW.The 12z gfs gave us a little more hope. If those channel streamers hit south and west Cornwall we could get plenty otherwise I will be able to which the snow from the cliffs pass by.
Wednesday onwards is all to play for if and it’s a big if that low skirts up the channel we would again get snow otherwise the usual rain.
It could go either way for us but plenty on offer for all in the E,SE etc etc...

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GEFS12z looks like an "upgrade" for coldies:

 

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Helluva control run 

The operational run was one of the more unsettled, snowier runs overall. 

ICON & UKMO has the winds originating from Kazakhstan/Mongolia @ +144:

ICON:

 

UKMO:

 

 

Let's see what the ECMWF has in store for us!? If this one follows the trend then we should be 99% sure that this will not go Pete Ting!

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😁

 

If it can go wrong it will go wrong........... My motto for snow IMBY.😜

ECM brings the cold in by 96. I believe that's cross-model agreement now for a noteworthy cold spell. The duration of it, is, of course, still up for debate.

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Is he Pete Thong’s cousin? Sounds a bit like onomatopete to me 

Steady so far on the early stages of the ECM 12s op run with cold moving in from the east by Monday.

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ECM rock solid at t96.

edit, you can see that second pulse of even colder 850s waiting in the wings at t120 

"Movingly"? Are you getting all emotional over it? 

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Anyone else getting bored of seeing all these cold easterly charts run after run now?

Me neither.

ECM looks steady at 120hrs. Don't want the low bulging any further south mind.

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like february 1991.

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Should be fine, Rob. The low was in a similar position on the 00z and that was the limit of its southerly extent 

Any air from East of the Urals will be seriously cold. Amazing chart that is.

 

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No it’s a stupid easterly  

Seriously it was my iPad’s autocorrectingly misfunctionationing 

Decent agreement across the models out to day 5 now. Lots of reasons to be cheerful and a few to still be cautious. Interesting viewing.

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The longer term implications of this event are interesting too. Will it turn out to be an oasis in the dessert or be remembered as heralding a change back to colder European winters. 

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Weather porn once more at t144 on the ECM 

Slight trade-off here; uppers not as stunning as UKMO but this is due to a shallow disturbance in the flow and in any case they're stillv ery impressive and with plenty more lined up nicely up-flow.

Will be interesting to see whether the next disturbance is again used as a door-opener for LP to invade from the SW on this run. I am skeptical of such an outcome but if ECM keeps doing it then I will start to accept that it really could pan out like that.

Edit: cache caught me out; I see +144 has already made my point for me about the cold up-flow!

Low by Azores perhaps not advancing quite so fast. Looking out for secondary lows splitting away east int the Med. as that's more typical when LP tries to move in against such deep cold air and from so far south.

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Well with the projected Grand Solar Minimum amd the switch in the AMO......... Watch this space. 😉

I meant to say the high!

at 144 it looks in danger of doing its previous trick of splitting off to Greenland and letting a northerly in. 

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Half decent CMA! 😊

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Looks like a repeat of an event of March 2013, albeit much earlier. What other years did this happen at beginning of March?

Indeed! From Russia with love! The cold is Russian after us! bump bump! Thank you drummer!)

Yes like Feb 1991 exactly the same in fact - I just saw the class "famous cold spell" forecast. The set-ups look identical to Feb 1991 except the fact this time it's almost one month later. The cold actually started late Jan 1991 and lasted into Feb 91 and if I remember it wasn't until the beginning of Feb 1991 when the snow came down.

Yet North America was balmy esp the eastern seaboard.   

 

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-15 across the south at 168, -16s into the SE. being picky I might want that tightest squeeze of isobars a hundred miles further north 🙂

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Well what can I say. The whole LP has tracked more east, keeping the UK in the deep cold flow - well okay, more of a waft at this stage due to the shallow low to the N, but that's going to be interacting with the deep cold pool as it gradually destabilises across the UK.

With that slackness of flow up north and extensive snow cover I can see temps making a run at the -20s Celsius should skies be clear (and that setup actually happens).

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Shades of January 1987 and February 1991 IMO, James.

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