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Gandalf The White
23 February 2018 08:21:34


 


As I said yesterday some people are speculating that it will have an impact on the NH circulation for years. There's no doubt in my mind that something changed after 1987 and there's no reason to think it couldn't happen again.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Years?  That’s an extraordinary idea. But add in the very quiet solar activity and upcoming minimum and it offers a potentially interesting and different period.


Spring could be put back a month if the charts and forecasts are correct.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Stormchaser
23 February 2018 08:22:26

Morning all. Bright frost here at the moment - a nice touch 


 


In brief - highly suspicious of the GFS handling of the LP track lately, which I know is a shame if you fancy a near-nationwide snowstorm to rival the all-time greats, but historically behaviour of such systems trying to move up from the south has tended to be more like the 00z ECM.


Not ruling out a halfway house between the two though. Could be that southern parts face a re-run of the expectations prior to what ended up being the Channel blizzard of March 2013 - can only hope that history does not repeat itself with respect to the final outcome, but I'm not holding my breath at this stage.


Of course the flip-side is that we stay in the cold air for longer, and that trend for increased blocking strength to the NW is not without note...

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
SJV
23 February 2018 08:25:34

London and the SE has just had its first Met Office weather warning of snow from 4pm Monday to end Tuesday. I am still astonished the media and news channels are not warning folk of the seriousness of this forthcoming cold spell. I accept behind the scenes the services are quietly preparing but I do think that the news outlets have a responsibility to give people as much warning as possible in extreme events such as this.
I also notice, unless I have misread, that the models are extending the length of this severe spell?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


Extended ensembles do look better for extended cold this morning.


 

Arbroath 1320
23 February 2018 08:26:22

This is all a bit like an asteroid on its way to earth which the scientists have been tracking for the last two weeks and held off telling anyone about in case its just going to be a near miss. This morning, they have just realised that its going to be a direct hit and they have started to gently tell people about it. I’ve been looking at daily synoptic charts for the last 40 years. As Gusty says, today’s output look like made-up charts but if thats the case, then someone has been messing with all the models. The only comparison I can think of is 31/1 January 1979 with a huge HP Northern Canada and stretching across Greenland and into Scandinavia but it was not persistent like we are seeing now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1978/noaa/NOAA_2_1978123100_1.png

I know we are all focused on the cold and snow possibilities but does anyone think there’s something strange going on after the unprecedented SSW? Not sure if anyone heard the radio 4 weather this morning but the presenter mentioned “record” February cold coming up.

Jeff

Originally Posted by: Jeff 


Spot on. The Met are caught between being late to call the severe weather and crying wolf. I work in an industry which totally weather dependent to be functional. We pay a lot of money to the Met and receive daily forecasts from the Chief Officer. All have been benign this week for next. I think they will need to ramp up the warnings over the next few days or face criticism.

GGTTH
Maunder Minimum
23 February 2018 08:28:21


Wow. Just a hundred miles or so away from a really nice Spanish plume at 348 hours. If that shifts west slightly, we could get winter to summer synoptics in the space of a couple of days.



 


Ok, I'll get my coat! 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Isn't that more or less what happened in 1947, leading to the worst recorded UK floods in the 20th Century?

New world order coming.
Leith Lynx
23 February 2018 08:31:39


 


I'm quite worried about the building collapse next week due to the shoddy "appendages" that have been added to many houses in recent years. That and central heating problems due to external condensate pipes could be real issues, although the strengthening sun may mitigate.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Hi Brian,


 


I don't often post but have been viewing the charts/forum with some eager anticipation of things to come but now I'm starting to grow a little concerned about my annual trip to the Cheltenham Festival (from 13 March).


Do you see any real danger to this event at present or can we expect it to have warmed up by then to get the snow off the ground and frost out of it?


OT I know (apologies) but genuinely interested (as I suspect there may be several others looking in for the same reason).

Joe Bloggs
23 February 2018 08:34:39

T+66. Yes, that’s t+66. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_66_2.png


We can see the train. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Snowedin
23 February 2018 08:36:09


If it all materialises its going to be tough for those working outdoors and other life trying to survive. Thankfully its the end of winter not mid, but the mess that is the Arctic seems to be having an effect upon us.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


I work for a large telecoms company that maintains the network for all of the mobile operators.  Being part of their emergency response team means I'll be in the thick of it.  I await the briefings to begin very shortly...

Buckley NE Wales 650ft ASL
Maunder Minimum
23 February 2018 08:38:05

London and the SE has just had its first Met Office weather warning of snow from 4pm Monday to end Tuesday. I am still astonished the media and news channels are not warning folk of the seriousness of this forthcoming cold spell. I accept behind the scenes the services are quietly preparing but I do think that the news outlets have a responsibility to give people as much warning as possible in extreme events such as this.
I also notice, unless I have misread, that the models are extending the length of this severe spell?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


The professionals have most likely been as sceptical as we are until quite recently. Sure, they will have been notifying the authorities to get prepapared, but in their hearts they were probably thinking "nah - that won't really happen". I postponed warning members of my extended family until last night - been burnt too many times in the past - but I phoned my aged mother last night and warned her to get everything she needs at the weekend and to let everybody else know.

New world order coming.
Solar Cycles
23 February 2018 08:41:32
My MetO app isn’t buying into any of the snowy charts on offer, why I bother checking this piece of junk I’ve no idea.

Steady as she goes this morning though my concern of the above remains high.
Argyle77
23 February 2018 08:41:47


T+66. Yes, that’s t+66. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_66_2.png


We can see the train. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


its feels really bitter now here by the coast ,frost and ice everywhere,I can’t imagine how severe it’s going to feel when the deep cold pool of air arrives next week.

Easternpromise
23 February 2018 08:42:41


Anticipation and exhilaration at the prospect of the long awaited return of The Beast has for me now turned into a kind of trepidation. Some of the latest charts are more than spine-tingling - they're blood curdling.


Originally Posted by: RobN 


Quote of the day!!


This is my favourite chart of the day. Near uninterrupted reverse flow at approx 60/70 degrees N round the Northern Hemisphere. 


Just breathtaking!!



 


 


 

Location: Yaxley, Suffolk
Solar Cycles
23 February 2018 08:44:10


If it all materialises its going to be tough for those working outdoors and other life trying to survive. Thankfully its the end of winter not mid, but the mess that is the Arctic seems to be having an effect upon us.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 

I share your concern though the artic has nothing whatsoever to with SSW or the fact that it’s weather that’s happened many times berfore.

Thames Shrimper
23 February 2018 08:53:07


 


As I said yesterday some people are speculating that it will have an impact on the NH circulation for years. There's no doubt in my mind that something changed after 1987 and there's no reason to think it couldn't happen again.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

You're absolutely right Brian.  1987 in S.E.Essex was a 3 day Jan blizzard that dumped appx 20" snow in Southend  and surrounding areas.


After that winter and for most of the next 10 years there was hardly a snowflake or frost. This SSW could well be the event that changes things back.  Hope so !

Maunder Minimum
23 February 2018 08:55:46


 


Quote of the day!!


This is my favourite chart of the day. Near uninterrupted reverse flow at approx 60/70 degrees N round the Northern Hemisphere. 


Just breathtaking!!


Originally Posted by: Easternpromise 


The SSW has turned the UK into the new Newfoundland and Newfoundland into the UK. Just shows what happens at our latitude when normal synoptics go into reverse - if the earth spun the other way round, Western Europe would be as Canada weatherwise and east Canadians would be moaning about their relentlessly mild and damp winters :-)


 

New world order coming.
Gavin D
23 February 2018 08:58:01

UKMO extended looks a bit more southeasterly bulk of the precipitation looks to be more focused Yorkshire northwards


ukm2.2018030200_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.f1f48b3cd8c3f799ce045b94864a15b3.png


Brian Gaze
23 February 2018 09:00:04


 


 


Hi Brian,


 


I don't often post but have been viewing the charts/forum with some eager anticipation of things to come but now I'm starting to grow a little concerned about my annual trip to the Cheltenham Festival (from 13 March).


Do you see any real danger to this event at present or can we expect it to have warmed up by then to get the snow off the ground and frost out of it?


OT I know (apologies) but genuinely interested (as I suspect there may be several others looking in for the same reason).


Originally Posted by: Leith Lynx 


I've had a number of people em'ing me / tweeting me about Cheltenham. It's too early to say but I think it's likely the cold will have broken by then. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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polarwind
23 February 2018 09:00:05


 


Years?  That’s an extraordinary idea. But add in the very quiet solar activity and upcoming minimum and it offers a potentially interesting and different period.


*(Spring could be put back a month if the charts and forecasts are correct.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

But not a new idea, eh? I'm glad you can now see the possibilities.


*Yes, if spring is put back a month, that will increase albedo with the obvious consequences on temperature and circulation - as discussed and often dismissed by many, for umpteen years in the Climate Forum.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Gavin D
23 February 2018 09:01:20
EC snow chart to Friday 00z shows up to 10 inches in the NE many places just see a light covering

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89388-model-output-discussion-here-comes-the-beast/?do=findComment&comment=3770469 
polarwind
23 February 2018 09:03:13


 


Spot on. The Met are caught between being late to call the severe weather and crying wolf. I work in an industry which totally weather dependent to be functional. We pay a lot of money to the Met and receive daily forecasts from the Chief Officer. All have been benign this week for next. I think they will need to ramp up the warnings over the next few days or face criticism.


Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 

I find that incredible.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
polarwind
23 February 2018 09:08:30


 


I work for a large telecoms company that maintains the network for all of the mobile operators.  Being part of their emergency response team means I'll be in the thick of it.  I await the briefings to begin very shortly...


Originally Posted by: Snowedin 

Yes, if you're 'Snowedin' - I can believe that.


Sorry, couldn't resist.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
White Meadows
23 February 2018 09:09:07


T+66. Yes, that’s t+66. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_66_2.png


We can see the train. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Has anyone untied Jacko from the tracks yet? 😂

Leith Lynx
23 February 2018 09:10:12


 


I've had a number of people em'ing me / tweeting me about Cheltenham. It's too early to say but I think it's likely the cold will have broken by then. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


thanks for the response.


Looking forward to the cold spell but fingers firmly crossed its warmed up a bit come the 13th.

polarwind
23 February 2018 09:14:38


 


The professionals have most likely been as sceptical as we are until quite recently. Sure, they will have been notifying the authorities to get prepapared, but in their hearts they were probably thinking "nah - that won't really happen". I postponed warning members of my extended family until last night - been burnt too many times in the past - but I phoned my aged mother last night and warned her to get everything she needs at the weekend and to let everybody else know.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

I think that is spot on. But as posters have said, 'something has changed' and if this continues, such pessimism will not enable the delivery of meaningful and useful forecasts.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
fairweather
23 February 2018 09:16:38


 


The professionals have most likely been as sceptical as we are until quite recently. Sure, they will have been notifying the authorities to get prepapared, but in their hearts they were probably thinking "nah - that won't really happen". I postponed warning members of my extended family until last night - been burnt too many times in the past - but I phoned my aged mother last night and warned her to get everything she needs at the weekend and to let everybody else know.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


[OT]  continued... The irony is the Daily Express didn't put up one of their early sensationalist headlines. But their previous fake forecasts have done the damage. Reading Yahoo News comments on their headlines 95% are along the lines "Yeah, yeah" and " so it's going to be chilly" and " it is winter you know". So the Express lies has made everyone complacent and will no doubt cost lives. And spare a thought for the UK's thousands of homeless people sleeping rough. We have a man of 73 discharged from our local hospital following a double hip replacement who is homeless and having to sleep in a sleeping bag on the floor of a church hall night shelter. I know because my wife is a volunteer there.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
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