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Interesting at T+54 on GFS to see not only the North Sea but the Baltic as well almost covered by showers as the intensely cold air passes over. In fact you hardly need the Baltic coastline to be marked on the map to see where it is. I imagine the only bits to be shower-free - the extreme north and the Gulf of Bothnia to the east - are the parts that are already covered with ice.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=4&time=54&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3
The Fax of Life: Very very cold.
120 (new) - cold pool sub 510 across GB:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120&carte=2000
t96 - Christmas Tree for Karl G:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=96&carte=2000
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
unbelievable!
Talking of the 18z, and on the GFS, -10 uppers arrive at Cromer, NorfolK at around 4-5pm Sunday afternoon, it begins.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=48&mode=1
Less than 48 hours til the beast hits.... Timing brought forward over past 24 hours! I’ve held off accepting this will actually happen but there’s no need to hold back any longer... A proper, genuine beasterly really is nailed on now.... first one for 27 years. Incredible that we’ve finally broken the drought. Even told the kids earlier they’d be experiencing winter like they’ve never done before.... Even better I have a grandstand view in my location :)
Never seen sub 510 air on a current fax chart before!
ICON 18z UK snow depths at t+120:
Fascinating model watching again. Now at T120 where is that low to the s/w of Portugal going? Looks ever so slightly further south on this run which could help keep the cold longer in the far south! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018022318/gfs-0-120.png?18Meanwhile uppers remains in the freezer!Originally Posted by: Karl Guille
Thats key for us down here Karl, if that low can keep to the south, then for us it will take this spell into the historic cateagory.
Quite pretty snow cover chart at T+156, even though in the SE corner the snow could have just - or be just about to - turn to rain.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=47&time=156&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6
GFS just won't let go of the idea of pushing milder air into the southeast corner.
Originally Posted by: Rob K
No, and like the 12Z it's likely to be a temporary incursion, although the deep cold is mixing out.
indeed, we may even get an easterly that delivers!
No, and like the 12Z it's likely to be a temporary incursion.
Originally Posted by: SEMerc
Yes the cold air just wraps around the low like a clingy lover and mixes out the milder uppers. Looking disruptively snowy for many once again towards the end of the working week. I say 'working'but we're all just going to be looking out the window
Out of this week's wintry potential, there probably still be enough room to fit in the usual standard southerly gales for my location.