Yes.

Having now seen ECM, it is also remarkable with its consistency in keeping on the right side of marginal. A snow-fest for sure for large swathes of the S.

I also alluded to a possible 'rinse and repeat' after yesterday's ECM and I can see that again this morning. We know that GFS is generally prone in being too progressive and in this instance, I have far more credence with ECM. EPS will be interesting later, as will the METO extended outlook. I rather suspect that the outcome in both will be good for fans of both snow and cold...

I have just put Banbury into the XCWeather link and on todays showing we had hammered at the end of the week, worth keeping an eye on.

EDIT yet the weather.us gives me nothing from the ECM run, something I find very hard to believe. IMBYism for sure

Spot the "Doughnut of Despair" along the Thames Valley, with snow on all sides. ;)

The GFS 00z ENS for Edinburgh are nuts, particularly the Control run. The Op is on the mild side of the mean from 3 March:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=edinburgh

Is that simply rain in that narrow area?

Big health warning as usual with snow depths but ICON doesn't look too dissimilar to the UK warnings. Many people are likely to be disappointed if the projections are near to the mark. 

FWIW the ICON EUNEST (0.0625) is double the resolution of the ECM IFS (0.128) 

I've not looked in-depth today so don't know. The ICON chart is for the next 120 hours.

,

Snow depth charts at a range of more than 2 days I have found to be hugely misleading in the past, nevertheless, speaking from my own perspective, with wind direction being key, only places prone in a ENE or Ely wind should expect much in the way of accumulations.

Most folk on here will know what that means for them.  IMBY it means very little if any, accumulation, most times  a NEly is required.

I suspect that the ICON model is seriously underdoing or simply not modelling any convective precipitation. Indeed it also seems to be underestimating the snow from any embedded features. I guess it could be right but I would say it is in the minority and doesn’t seem to reflect synoptics.

The ICON diverges as early as t72.  (see my post from earlier this morning, a page or two or three back).

That's why the coming week will be so interesting. Genuinely cold uppers from the east but for many people this could turn out to be a complete bake. If low pressure quickly pushes up from the south after Thursday it may be sunny and cold days ("wrap up warm"), sharp nighttime frosts then several hours of heavy snow followed by rain and spring. That's not me "trolling". I'm just offering one possible scenario. An alternative is for heavy snow showers to be widespread and then blizzards to sweep the south late in the week before the cold block reasserts itself.

Yes exactly, the first attempt usually failed. That is such a massive block I feel the lows will stay south with perhaps only extreme southeast being grazed by milder uppers 

Agreed.  the key is to keep expectations low, as then you wont be disappointed.  For me I know the wind direction is simply too East, and I accept that, but there could be an embedded trough if I'm lucky.

Meanwhile, the ECM ens paint a cold cold picture:

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest

Nearly half a metre of snow modelled here for Cheshire/ NE Wales.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_204_uksnowdepth.png?cb=949

Totally agree with this analysis. Very likely that The low will slip through into France and staying cold given METO long term and ECM ensembles.

martin

GFS ensemble mean goes under the -15 850 mark.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=235

Interesting discussion regarding convective precipitation. 

With a cold pool as deep as this I really don’t think it’ll be particularly dry. 

Some places may miss out but I think the amounts of snow could be noteworthy, especially in the east. At the moment it’s just impossible to say exactly where. Lots of radar watching next week. 

Spot on. We simply don’t know, but what was just radar and curtain twitching 20 years ago is now an impressive raft of models and data and tweets offering professional insight so we should know on day to day basis where the CVZs and streams will set up. Still can’t predict this though at this range, and the ppn charts are as has been said sometimes next to useless.

But that's before any major snow event, so surely about what would be expected? Snow on the coasts (probably more tthan modelled along a narrow coastal strip too small to be modelled) and areas exposed to streamers, plus NYM etc, but not much inland: that is standard for an easterly isn't it? I don't think anyone other than the usual suspects are expecting more than the odd shower until the end of the week.  

Whatever happens with the detail now, this is going to be a historic and memorable event, just watching the models advect the cold air - the high orientated NE - Sw dragging Siberian air into Western Europe and then seeing the high flatten E-W and propell that sub 510 DAM air over the ok like an ice dragon,  sucking in momentarily before spewing its icy fury at the UK, is a jaw dropping sight, reminiscent of yesteryear, when these things were a little more common, but as these events seem to come in clusters, this alludes to the possibility of us being spoiled by a repeat next year, as we inch closer to the maunder low, combined with a millennial low sun-spot period, which, even in these globally warmed times, will see some historic winters return. If there is a cold pool - it can be sent our way by the right Synoptics, and the low sun-spot period provides more chance of this, although the causal link is not so clear as far as I have reAd. 

It is a delight how the rankles and bickers have now stopped as us weather geeks unify in celebration of a shared wonder at such obviously stocking model outputs that are the stuff of our dreams - I open this forum every morning with eagerness and am never disappointed with the insights. - and frankly enjoy the manic ramping too.  Here's to the ice-dragon beast from the east!!

You can see the uncertainty kick in by Friday. The op run was on the low side especially in terms of dewpoint but of course that's for Holland so a low heading further east could introduce milder air there while the UK keeps colder air on the northern flank.