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Twister
Wednesday, October 23, 2013 3:35:11 PM

Here's the MetO's take on Monday's potential gales (extracted from their 6-15 day outlook):


"Wet and windy weather sweeps across much of the country on Monday with the potential for severe gales in the south, although there remains marked uncertainty with regard to the precise track of the strongest swathe of winds. However, it may stay drier and brighter across northern parts. "


Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Wednesday, October 23, 2013 9:26:39 PM


Here's the MetO's take on Monday's potential gales (extracted from their 6-15 day outlook):


"Wet and windy weather sweeps across much of the country on Monday with the potential for severe gales in the south, although there remains marked uncertainty with regard to the precise track of the strongest swathe of winds. However, it may stay drier and brighter across northern parts. "


Originally Posted by: Twister 


Susan Powell sufficiently confident to go beyond her usual brief and drop a hint of very stormy weather on Monday, on BBC News24 at 2155 today.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Matty H
Wednesday, October 23, 2013 9:41:11 PM
Hmmm... The worst type of weather. I gain no interest whatsoever from gales that can easily damage my property. Hopefully it'll track south. I used to find this interesting before I had a house and family and I gained a sense of perspective in life.

Still find it interesting from afar, but absolutely have no desire of any sort to experience severe gales here ever again

Fingers crossed.
Gooner
Wednesday, October 23, 2013 10:12:46 PM

Hmmm... The worst type of weather. I gain no interest whatsoever from gales that can easily damage my property. Hopefully it'll track south. I used to find this interesting before I had a house and family and I gained a sense of perspective in life.

Still find it interesting from afar, but absolutely have no desire of any sort to experience severe gales here ever again

Fingers crossed.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Worst kind is when you are in bed at night and hear the storm, you lay there wondering what you wake up to.


As you say , hopefully it will be less intense and head South into France. With saturated ground trees will be uprooted for sure


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


schmee
Wednesday, October 23, 2013 10:18:43 PM
Be a pity to lose trees that are in good shape to a storm. Seems trees recover over 10years or so then get smashed. Looked at the bbc 2230 and an early watch has been issued coming from the usual area.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Snowfan
Wednesday, October 23, 2013 11:11:47 PM

http://www.herald.ie/news/forecaster-predicting-big-winter-freezeup-29686304.html 


 


                              


"Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow! "
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The Beast from the East
Wednesday, October 23, 2013 11:12:03 PM

Express says "worst storm for 26 Years"


 


As Matty says, owning a property changes your perspective. Years ago I would have said "bring it on". Now I say "go to France"


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Snowfan
Thursday, October 24, 2013 7:07:43 AM


Express says "worst storm for 26 Years"


 


As Matty says, owning a property changes your perspective. Years ago I would have said "bring it on". Now I say "go to France"


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Oh dear! I hope to be owning a property by this time next year........!!


"Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow! "
[/size]
Gooner
Thursday, October 24, 2013 7:31:49 AM


http://www.herald.ie/news/forecaster-predicting-big-winter-freezeup-29686304.html 


 


                              


Originally Posted by: Snowfan 


Dream on 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Thursday, October 24, 2013 7:37:05 AM

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:


Dry in places on Saturday before rain and strong winds return later. Sunshine, showers and strong winds on Sunday. Potentially turning very stormy on Monday, particularly across southern areas.


Issued at: 0400 on Thu 24 Oct 2013


 


ouch


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Thursday, October 24, 2013 3:59:59 PM

80 mph gusts for the South Sunday night into Monday


J Wynne


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


idj20
Thursday, October 24, 2013 4:13:57 PM


Hmmm... The worst type of weather. I gain no interest whatsoever from gales that can easily damage my property. Hopefully it'll track south. I used to find this interesting before I had a house and family and I gained a sense of perspective in life.

Still find it interesting from afar, but absolutely have no desire of any sort to experience severe gales here ever again

Fingers crossed.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Worst kind is when you are in bed at night and here the storm, you lay there wondering what you wake up to.


As you say , hopefully it will be less intense and head South into France. With saturated ground trees will be uprooted for sure


Originally Posted by: Matty H 



My thoughts exactly too.


Folkestone Harbour. 
DeeDee
  • DeeDee
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Friday, October 25, 2013 11:51:03 AM
Darren S
Friday, October 25, 2013 2:21:04 PM

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2474792/UK-weather-Worst-storms-1987-winds-80mph-predicted.html

Full scale ramping in the Mail today

Originally Posted by: DeeDee 


Yes, and a quote from that article is:


The storm is currently 5,000 miles away but should hit our shores Monday morning, before moving rapidly east over a 24-hour period.


Eddy Carroll, chief forecaster at the Met Office, said: 'This storm doesn't exist at the moment, but our forecasts models predict it is likely to develop in the west Atlantic on Saturday.


Two consecutive sentences that contradict each other quite nicely!


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Girthmeister
Friday, October 25, 2013 2:33:30 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10404746/Storm-warning-hurricane-strength-wind-alerts-extended-to-Midlands.html  "Some gusts are likely to top 12 on the Richter Scale"- my word, earthquakes as well?

Blimey. From a Science Correspondent, too.
micahel37
Friday, October 25, 2013 3:11:20 PM
They seem to have fixed that now. But this sort of thing is why I no longer take print media seriously.
Polbeth, West Lothian 150m asl
beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
Friday, October 25, 2013 3:34:39 PM

Some gusts are likely to top 12 on the Richter Scale"- my word, earthquakes as well?

Blimey. From a Science Correspondent, too.

Originally Posted by: Girthmeister 


 


It's another side effect of Global Warming. 


Reigate, home of the North Downs
schmee
Friday, October 25, 2013 4:39:37 PM
Anyone want to go hardcore in the straits? No way just looked at gooners posts earlier.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Gooner
Friday, October 25, 2013 4:41:07 PM

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:


Very unsettled with sunny spells, squally showers and strong winds throughout. Turning very stormy in the south early on Monday with heavy rain and very strong, potentially damaging, winds.


Issued at: 1600 on Fri 25 Oct 2013


 



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Friday, October 25, 2013 4:45:46 PM

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Oct 2013 to Friday 8 Nov 2013:


It will be a dry and rather cold start to Wednesday, with a touch of frost across many eastern and southern parts as the winds ease. However, rain and strengthening winds will push in from the west through the day. This will herald the change back to unsettled conditions which will prevail thereafter. Showers or longer outbreaks of rain, locally heavy, will affect many areas, especially the north and west, with strong winds and gales also likely in the west at times. The best drier and brighter interludes will be across southeastern parts, but this may allow occasional fog overnight. After a rather cold start to the period, the milder conditions are likely to return to most areas, although northwestern areas will see some incursions of colder air at times.


UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Nov 2013 to Saturday 23 Nov 2013:


The mostly unsettled conditions are expected to continue for much of this period, with a trend for rainfall amounts to be slightly above average in the north and west but nearer to average in the south and east. Temperatures during this period are more likely to be near, or perhaps, a little above average throughout, leading to a lower risk of frost than can usually be expected at this time of year. There are some indications that towards the end of the period, slightly drier and more settled conditions further south would bring an increased risk of overnight frost, with fog which may be slow to clear at times.


Issued at: 1600 on Fri 25 Oct 2013


 


Becoming more seasonal, thankfully


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Friday, October 25, 2013 5:28:53 PM

J Wynne


Damaging gusts into Monday morning 80mph +


" Violent storm heading our way "


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


sriram
Friday, October 25, 2013 6:32:19 PM
Just saw Jay Wynne on News 24

Did show the Atlantic charts for Monday

The impression I get is the centre of the low is over central southern meaning that the strongest winds will be Channel bound ?

This is one that will be not be resolved till Sunday pm for sure
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
mbradshaw
Friday, October 25, 2013 7:21:26 PM

Just saw Jay Wynne on News 24

Did show the Atlantic charts for Monday

The impression I get is the centre of the low is over central southern meaning that the strongest winds will be Channel bound ?

This is one that will be not be resolved till Sunday pm for sure

Originally Posted by: sriram 


Agree, it will go to ther wire I think. The amber warning area is massive right now, but the strongest winds will be concentrated on the southern and western flanks of the low, near its centre. So track is everything, and it is way to far out at the moment to be precise where the most violent wind will hit....


Deffinatily needs a close eye on it.

Gandalf The White
Friday, October 25, 2013 7:27:03 PM

Just saw Jay Wynne on News 24

Did show the Atlantic charts for Monday

The impression I get is the centre of the low is over central southern meaning that the strongest winds will be Channel bound ?

This is one that will be not be resolved till Sunday pm for sure

Originally Posted by: sriram 


Most of the output puts the centre further north than that.  ECM 12z has it passing over North Wales, GFS perhaps 50 miles south of that, UKMO a touch further south again - but all run the track ENE through Wales and exiting out into the North Sea somewhere north of the Wash.  Which is why the warnings are out for the south across the south Midlands to East Anglia.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
Friday, October 25, 2013 7:32:53 PM


Just saw Jay Wynne on News 24

Did show the Atlantic charts for Monday

The impression I get is the centre of the low is over central southern meaning that the strongest winds will be Channel bound ?

This is one that will be not be resolved till Sunday pm for sure

Originally Posted by: mbradshaw 


Agree, it will go to ther wire I think. The amber warning area is massive right now, but the strongest winds will be concentrated on the southern and western flanks of the low, near its centre. So track is everything, and it is way to far out at the moment to be precise where the most violent wind will hit....


Deffinatily needs a close eye on it.


Originally Posted by: sriram 


For a change you look to be out of the firing line with this one.


As you say, it won't be clear for a while yet.  A change of track of just a few tens of miles will alter which areas are worst affected, so it may not be clear until Sunday afternoon, once the 12z runs are out.  By then the depression should have formed.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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