Is this the result of wave 2 breaking? If it is I expect a lot of people here are wishing it hadn't bothered.

It's such a big flip from January to February that I assume the change probably begins second half of Jan really.

Wasn't expecting that when I went from Jan to Feb was you!

Get cold air pooling around the back of the high and then take it north into Scandi and it's "game on"

Still looking very blocked to the east and over the UK with an east/south easterly drift

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014111412/UN144-21.GIF?14-17

GFS parallel run isn't mild, it's warm! 

Thanks Gav

Yep..and even though it is a warm outlier at this stage you can pretty much guarantee it will verify.

Well with that and petrol prices tumbling it's going to be a Merry Xmas financially at least. 

Indeed Brian..Mild weather is so under-rated.

Barbecue... Winter? 

In the sensible forecasting range the UKMO run is interesting

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Previous GFS runs had lows firing over to the north of Scotland (over the top) next week not going to happen

The ECM also highlighted this for a while with lows kept out west

So, it does seem ECM did have a bad morning after all as GFS is still hanging onto the idea of a high-pressure orientated theme for the weekend after this one, but it still more as a trend rather than a nailed on forecast.
  However, as GTW already hinted, I'll be interested to see what ECM does come up in their 12z run with in a couple of hours time.  And then the 18z GFS run later on this evening. And then the . . .

Oh no, what have I become? Still, it is all part of the learning process as well as being an extension of my own forecasting skills.

Yes I was just looking at the Met run. Can we see the 850s anywhere? Thickness values look around 542 in the south.

If that occurs over Christmas, there'd be a lot of BBQ's being smashed up!

The 850's are probably fairly useless under such a setup .

A continental flow at this time of year will bring cool conditions.. Average at best really. 

ptb 17 isn't bad. just about the best straw to clutch at!

seriously looks very mild and rainy in the next week or so. Thank goodness it's November and no-one is bothered about winter being over already

The block to the east is looking increasingly resilient. This is helped by the fact that there is now agreement on the low to the west of the UK during the middle part of next week locating almost as far south as ECM had it on yesterday's 12z - which means the jet doesn't look like being so flat as we head towards the weekend.

Despite this, GFS still insists that the jet will attempt to ride over the blocking high rather than undercut it.

Comparing GFS with UKMO for day 6 (+144 hours, GFS left, UKMO right), we see the following:

Notice how the GFS chart has a ridge aligned SW-NE through the Azores, which reflects the angle of the jet in that area. It's firing right at the UK. To the SW of Spain, an area of lower heights represents a shallow trough in the jet which is being cut-off (becoming a closed loop separate from the main jet stream) as a result of the strong, flat jet progressing towards the UK. During the following days this supports a ridge to the north of it, which builds through the UK as a strong feature, keeping away the strong Atlantic storms.

The UKMO chart features a stronger trough west of Spain, which has not yet become cut-off. The question is whether it could remain attached to the main jet days 7-8, causing it to angle more towards Europe, as happened on the ECM 00z op run. That run had a stronger trough than the 12z UKMO run shows. As it stands, the UKMO setup certainly seems to give the blocking high a boost - it looks like the Atlantic jet would have a lot more trouble riding over the top of that compared with what GFS goes on to show.

The UKMO evolution could also save us from another long-duration stalled front event, which is what GFS projects for Thursday through Friday as the boundary between Atlantic and Continental air masses generates frontal system along a shallow disturbance travels.

The GFS version of events is arguably a lot better for the UK longer-term though, as it provides a lengthy run of largely dry conditions. 

All Signs of Next Week after A Chilly Cool Monday and Tuesday, mild on Wednesday to Friday next week is on GFS and the UKMO game of wishful modelling.

Then by the Sunday Monday after that a Cool Spell with spell of West then tail of NW Winds, that then GFS brings yet more Mild Dry and High Pressure Domination for the UK West and NW to Central Europe, for at least Tuesday to Friday for week following next weeks weekend is also played by 12z GFS the North Atlantic to Greenland NE USA through Greenland and through the South Arctic to our North and NW track eastwards well North and NW of UK is expected now - that means UK and West SW NW Europe see Azores High maintained with mildness and dry weather but it would last Upto 3-4 days then give West and North UK one or two days spells of changeable WEATHER. 

im not to worried we not even in winter yet, we all know how models/charts can flip over night, we are seeing alot of mildness, tho last year we was close to cold and they flipped to mild, thats weather, so untill we reach winter then ill start getting excited, nice to see the admins/mods chilling and being relaxed for once unlike other weather sites say one wrong word then you get told of, it gets right up my trumpet, still learning, been here 2 years nearly and loving it,  thanks everyone,

im sure matty H will bring us all back down to earth with his words or wisdom and tell us how it is, if we all get to carried away,

I would have thought fog could be a possibility in that set-up with it taking some time to clear at this time of year.

This mild ramping is getting ridiculous....