I'll bank that.  Of course, there is the increased risk of low cloud and fog. But for now, I'll take that over depressingly wild and wet stuff all day long.

If we do genuinely get a long fetch southerly then possibly, but we need to remember that a fleeting continental flow at this time of year won't bring anything milder than average really, even if the 850's look warm. 

Remember December 2010 "The freeze" Well IIRC November was reasonably mild and then it flipped to freeze your nuts off weather

however it was followed by a mild new year.

So on just that note although I know we should not follow patterns but my point is we just don't know what will happen except maybe for 

5 days out

but as Gooner says it's JFF

The only thing that is tickling the back of my mind is that last November started off as being wet and breezy then it became more high-pressure dominated in the second half of the month and you know what happened next.

But of course, like I said before, no two years are exactly alike as far as our climate is concerned. Maybe I need to take on a less stressful hobby, like drawing . . . oh, wait.

The leaves on the some of the trees look spectacular today.

Almost matching the colours of this 654h CFS run... Dare say it'll all change before the 12th

Well the girl on the checkout in Tesco,s said it was going to turn cold before christmas with temperatures down to minus 10 . I dont know where she got her information but i reckon she is as likely to be right as anyone. 

Something encouraging for those worried about a repeat performance of last winter is that the deep cold plunge into the States doesn't appear to be stuck on a loop.

Currently the HP over Alaska http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014111500/ECH1-0.GIF?15-12 is helping cold air descend into the lower latitudes http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014111500/ECH0-0.GIF?15-12.

By the end of next week this HP is shoved out of the way http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014111500/ECH1-192.GIF?15-12 and the cold spell eases http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014111500/ECH0-192.GIF?15-12.

GFS is showing something similar so hopefully there won't be that extreme temperature gradient fueling cyclogenesis in the Atlantic.

Well as you may know this forum has a long association with Tescos and some of the best LRFs have come from information overheard in the strategic planning department at Tesco HQ

OT, and is it me of has the NWP trended more and more to high pressure pushing North later next week? If the output from just last Wednesday was to believed we were all in for a soaking and gales.
How fickle this business is LOL.

Interesting 12z GFS and 12z GEM too, although not for a while yet...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014111512/gemnh-0-240.png

Certainly no Atlantic onslaught on the 12z runs so far. 

That high to our east is firmly in charge in the medium term at least. 

Generally dry with average temps. If we can get a genuine southerly push (akin to 00z ECM), rather than a weak SE'ly off the continent, we could see some milder temps however. 

All looks ok to me, if rather unexciting on the ground. 

There hasn't been an "Atlantic onslaught" projected on any output. It's kind of a reverse Quantum from those that only see zonality when there's nothing of the sort shown. 

FAO Coldies: if you fancy a trip to Fantasy Island the GEM 240 has potential, though nothing more.  Look fast as it will most likely be gone in 12 hours.

Surprised there wasn't a little more comment on the GFS run. Okay no cold air around but very encouraging set up:-

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_240_mslp850.png 

HP drifting North, some colder air being dragged round the northern flank of the HP, LPs undercutting etc. All bleeds away deeper in low res but an encouraging start if nothing else

Nice to see something different and edging close enough to the vaguely reliable range too - suggests the current zonal spell won't run on endlessly (ala last year).

The charts certainly do have a sort of 2009/2010 feel to them albeit the chances of getting them to T0 and also getting some cold air too is as usual rather 'low'.

I think I have fallen in love with the new fangled GFS. Anything to keep the Angry Atlantic at arm's length is fine by me.

Of course, it could still all change at the drop of a hat but encouraging signs all the same anyway.

Indeed... I was referring to comments in here from recent days! 

GFSP has warmer uppers at times but with high pressure slap bang over the UK it could bring colder conditions than the op run, especially nights.

im just glad that ill be saving money on heating this year once again, i prefer the cold and snow, but i love money to so a win win for me, tho any thing can change, tho read terry scholeys forecast  GAVIN P posted  i rate this guy highly he is AWESOME,

and Matty H is awesome too,    he is to the point no messing, sharp as a razor,   sorry for topic, guys,

Yes a lovely run from ECM tonight. Both ECM and GFS ensembles are trending colder with a fair few cold  easterlies turning up. Perhaps something is brewing. Wouldn't be surprised if we get a stellar Op run soon. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Now this is an interesting chart. 

Almost summitworthy

Woah - interesting developments both inside and outside of the reliable timeframe tonight. I'll get to those in a bit - first, a brief look at the precipitation prospects for the coming 48 hours:

The left chart shows the impact of showers across coastal counties of The South tonight into tomorrow, along with the frontal precipitation across NE Scotland. There's the potential for those showers to train across some locations, giving locally large totals. On the other hand, they look frequent and scattered enough to give most of the aforementioned counties 10 mm or so. For what it's worth, the inland penetration of the showers is being overlooked by GFS once again.

The right-hand chart shows the impact of an area of rain moving through from the North Sea, arcing south through Sunday night. Euro4 fades this feature out rapidly on Monday morning, whereas GFS sustains it a few hours longer. The system adds 5-10 mm very widely across England and Wales.

Overall, not great for places watching those river levels rise close to or into flood stage lately.

Okay, I'm going to post this now to remove the risk of accidentally losing my work by navigating away from the page unintentionally. A look at the longer range coming up soon...

I know its only Navgem, but look at the WAA on this baby.  What goes up must come down...kinda..

must say the jet stream is throwing out some wierd shapes out lately, hitting us with mild azores temps,