What about March 2013? When was the last time this happened?

March 2013 was literally the deepest snow I have ever seen, not so much on low ground ofc (being march) but the drifts in the pennines were absurd, and the level snow was taller than me in some parts. If this had been january I recon it would have bested '10 and '63. 

The UK mean temperature was 2.2 °C, which is 3.3 °C below the 1981-2010 average. It was the coldest March since 1962, and the equal second-coldest in the series from 1910. March was the coldest month of the 'extended winter', the first time this has happened since 1975, and the coldest calendar month since December 2010.

To think March 2013 didn't manage any accumulating snow IMBY... crazy.

A curious 18z GFS op run in lower-res, far more amplified days 11-14 which results in a significant Scandi High.

IF the atmosphere is going to be led largely by the MJO for the foreseeable, then this could be attributed to a stronger response to the progression through phase 7, which reflects a more amplified MJO in that phase, which is encouraging for further progression into phases 8 and 1.

I'm hesitant to make such assumptions though, and also this is the first GFS op run to ditch mid-Atlantic ridges in favour of a Scandi High in quite a long time. It also evolves from an Azores Ridge which is very different to how ECM was trying to get one started.

Still, we are in the sort of position where, as the models start to get to grips with a significant tropospheric development (the MJO in this case), dramatic changes to the outlook can materialise seemingly without much notice.

I really hope this is one of those times - I'm growing hungry for some entertaining model output rather than countless 'neither here nor there' charts.

Just an observation, but this thread has been top drawer the last couple of days 

ive got bored of saying how much more of a winter 2013 was compared to 2010, it begun in January and continued well into the end of March with snow cover maintaining til  April.

(I took this on 6th April near the Horse Shoe pass and was still there 2-3 weeks later? https://www.flickr.com/photos/89020830@N07/8625051441/)

If I remember correctly 2010 was more just of a couple of weeks of intense cold with great snowfall, but 2013 was just silly in terms of volume.

2013 was a case of reload of the cold to the east-> slider low drawing in the cold air -> Heavy snow -> Pressure building, milder air - ->reload of the cold to the east...rinse and repeat i think 4-5 times?  At one point i worked from home on 4 consecutive fridays with a slider low rolling in.

The thing is, you may say this is a IMBY thing, but 2010 actually delivered more snow to me.  What i do remember is the extreme of the wind and snow that we had - proper blizzard conditions to alot bigger area.

Remember the conditions in Jersey blizzard in March?  Proper nasty weather that was- IN MARCH!!:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-jersey-21738677

and then there was the overnight snowfall in on the 22nd in northwales... from a friend of mine, away from high ground this photo was taken:

50cm fell in about 12 hrs?

Sorry about the long post.... back to the models now... :)

Still trying to find those old fords on ice on the river thames in 1963 cant see thats going to happen again wont allow it anyway apologies mods must get back on topic

Sorry to ask what might be an obvious answer here SC, but could you give a bit of background to what you are actually looking for?  what is MJO, and what are we tracking?

You seem to put alot of effort into your posts, so im very intrigued and read them intently trying to understand whats going on,  but i find it hard to follow when im not sure the reason behind it.  :)

What is a good scenario/what is a poor scenario vs what we currently have :) 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

No change across the primary NWP. A mobile changeable pattern ensues.
If anything the ENS suite suggests a trend to more W-SW pattern than W-NW with time. The search continues . .

Sure looks that way Neil, something has to change very quickly if we are to see something wintry at the back end of December.

Yep - For the south it remains bleak in terms of serious winter conditions. Hopefully the odd frost in the transient pm interludes

Could well be too much cloud for that  Dave , December looks like being quite mobile , sadly

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY DECEMBER 4TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY DECEMBER 5TH 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A cold front will move slowly SE across the UK today and tonight followed by a cold and somewhat showery NW flow tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain at times gradually focusing more towards the North and West. Rather cold at first but probably becomig milder later especially across the South

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows a dip in the flow across the UK and into Europe before the underlying trend remains for the flow to return North in a West to East flow across the UK in a mainly flat flow between High pressure to the South and Low to the North.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a much less intense and vigorous Westerly flow across the UK over the next two weeks as High pressure is programmed to be much more influential in watering down the extent and power of deep Low pressure areas held further to the North of the UK. As a result the message is for a Westerly flow delivering rain at times especially to the North and West with some longer drier spells across the South and East. As the flow backs west the current chill will lessen with some mild weather at times later especially across the South.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is not available until Monday of next week.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also shows a similar pattern to the operational run with Westerly winds taking command, up to gale force or above for a time next week across the North before all areas settle into a North/South split between Low pressure to the North and NW and High pressure to the South and SE. The net result at the surface will maintain a lot of cloud across the UK with occasional rain especially in the North and West while longer drier spells in the South and East look likely with temperatures steadily recovering as the flow backs more towards the SW later

THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles maintain a period of zonal Westerly winds over the next two weeks circulating around Low pressure to the North and High to the South. As some colder air interjects at first some rather cold and showery interludes develop though as the pattern flattens later with strong West or SW winds temperatures will recover to average or above with all too frequent periods of rain in the strong winds becoming more restricted towards the North and West at times.

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure to the SW of the UK becoming a domainant and controlling feature of the UK weather again through the middle of next week holding otherwise deep and stormy Low pressure harmlessly away from all but the far North of the UK. Some rain is expected for all at times but principally heaviest in the North and West.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a series of weakening cold fronts crossing SE over the UK over the next two to three days each bringing some rain and then a cold and stronger NW flow with Wintry showers in places before a ridge of High pressure topples across the UK early next week.

GEM GEM keeps things rather chillier through it's run as the deep Low to the North next week extends SE over NW Europe promoting a cold NW flow and wintry showers across the UK before winds back Westerly later with occasional rain across Western areas later and slowly recovering temperatures.

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning pulls our old friend the Azores High back in close to the South later next week displacing the chilly NW flow with a milder SW flow with rain at times chiefly towards the North and West later next week.

ECM ECM this morning shows a changeable and sometimes windy and rather cold period over the next 10 days as deep Low pressure held well to the North of the UK push troughs of Low pressure ESE across the UK periodically. Each of these will bring some rain followed by wintry showers before milder air returns from the west a day or two afterward. At the end of the run the Azores High remains the spanner in the works in diverting the coldest conditions further to the North and NE over Scandinavia and other parts of NW Europe.

ECM ENSEMBLES This morning's Ensemble data continue to highlight little chance of cold for the UK as the pattern of Low pressure lying in a belt from Scandicavia to Greenland and High pressure from the Azores to the Meditterenean Sea later maintains a Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times, especially to the North and West with average temperatures.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main change this morning is that the Azores High is shown to be much closer and more influential in steering the previous outputs's showing of Low pressure over the UK to a point well to the North and as a result brings a more diluted period of changeable weather with rain at times across the UK and temperatures overall close to normal when taking the whole period as a whole.

MY THOUGHTS I can't help feeling a little deflated this morning for those thinking that next week was going to mark the start of what looked like a major shift into cold and unsettled weather when some areas would of seen some snow albeit brief and fleeting for most. Instead this morning has shown a marked shift away from the worst of this as the Azores High once more spoils the party in becoming much more influential in steering the worst of the Winter weather to the North of the UK and Scandinavia while we lie in a more benign Westerly flow pattern with rain at times followed by spells of sunshine and showers, wintry on Northern hills in pretty ordinary conditions for mid December. Frost and fog could occur in the chillier periods between Low pressure troughs as a ridge passes over at times. The High is shown to come close enough to Southern Britain at times to restrict rainfall here to nothing more than a splash and the worrying trend of pushing the High zone east into Europe later in the period is present this morning which would if verified back winds more to the SW and draw milder air NE across many areas while maintaing the worst of rain to the North and West. I still maintain that the best chance of achieving cold over the UK over the coming weeks is from brief incursions from the North and NW with an almost zero chance of anything turning up from the East this side of Christmas given that the pressure patterns and Jet flow profile remains poor for sustained cold anywhere in the UK in the coming forecasting period. While the Winter has only just begun the large and influential High pressure zone seemingly permanently shown to the SW of the UK thus far this season is going to have to shift and loosen it's grip in a big way enabling the Jet Stream profile to become better aligned in our part of the Northern hemisphere and steer a more sustained chance of cold Arctic air getting a longer lasting foothold down over the UK but as of yet this is not shown in any output I have seen.

Very good assessment, and worrying for the snow lovers (at least away from the Northern hills and mountains)

Thanks.

Kieron

I know it cant be trusted... but look at the annomally the CFS has down for February:

thats a meaty HP over the pole!

Great summary by Martin as always, looking increasinglymild and wet as we head through December with no real sign or overarching teleconnection suggesting a move to any cold conditions this side of Xmas

If we cant have cold i'd like a good storm at least !

Encouraging. 

Let's get the Atlantic dull-as-dishwater umbrella weather done with in December I say. Proper cold in the UK usually only comes after Christmas (2010 aside) so any hopes for snow before then are always a little misplaced.

Bang on, I think this forum and others at times needs a big banner at the top of the threads reminding people of that.

It's funny because in FI when it shows snow and cold it's ruled out because it's in FI yet when the Atlantic and Mild shows in FI to spoil the party Winter is over 4 days in to it.

some off those members have gone mad I really hope not 

..back to the here and now temperatures continue to fall as the briefest of continental incursions push across the SE.

Circa 1-2c in many places with sub zero dewpoints

Upper air temps are sub zero at both 850 and 925Hpa.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=EGMD

Given a hint of moisture I wouldn't be ruling out the odd snow grain in parts of Kent this afternoon. A slight chance but worthy of a mention given the parameters.

I think maybe the dew points will be just a little high Steve 

live dew points

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmetd.html

I do think there is the possibility of some wintry conditions to quite low levels Sunday into Sunday night. Nothing exciting at all, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a covering of snow up towards the Peak District, with showers being blown in on a keen WNW'ly.

MetO raw data is showing wintry showers for Manchester Sunday night. 

Yes, but I doubt there will be settling snow below about 300m