Indeed David no need for members to get down in the dumps

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=101&map=1&type=0&archive

Memories of January 1984.

yup here we go

January 1984 was a zonal and sometimes stormy month, however there were quite a number of snowfalls during that month and it had a CET of 3.8C

On the 1st of January, there were snow showers across Scotland but it was milder to the south. The milder weather moved into Scotland on the 2nd but the cold NWlies were back on the 3rd with frequent heavy snow showers to northern parts. The milder weather returned on the 5th and 6th as fronts moved through the UK followed by another colder interlude on the 7th and the 8th. On the 13th, the cold NWlies were back and these gave prolong heavy snow showers to Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England, with drifting snow over the hills and maxina close to freezing. On the 16th, a vigorous low move through southern Scotland, to the south of low, there was wind and rain but to the north there were gales and heavy snowfalls. Colder weather returned to all parts and a channel low brought snow and rain to southern parts. To the north, the severe frosts and snowfalls continued, Grantown-on-Spey in the Highlands recorded a minimum of -23.6C on the 20th. The next low brought heavy snowfalls and blizzards to the north where depths of snow were reaching 30cm+ in many places, in the south it was rain but snow showers did follow afterwards. The milder weather didn't reach the north until the end of the month.

Number of days with falling sleet/snow
Heathrow: 8
Cardiff: 12
Plymouth: 6
Birminghan: 12
Manchester: 13
Belfast: 22
Glasgow: 20
Aberdeen: 22

Looks like a recipe for violent cyclogenesis. Great for the Scottish ski resorts - that is, if the wind stops for long enough to open the access roads and lifts. Not so good for wintry weather in the southern flatlands.

People often cite January 1984 as something exciting BUT I lived in Essex at the time and there was one snowfall throughout that month so for some areas it wasn't that great. It was very wet as I recall and there was some sleet on other days but nothing settled. These type of set-ups are doubtless fantastic for the Scottish ski industry though provided the warm sectors are minimal :)

IMBY alert

Let's not beat around the bush here - polar maritime mobility is pretty much pants for a significant proportion of the UK. It's either wet and mild or cold and dry. If this is what's in store for January then fair enough, bring it on but here in balmy Hampshire we won't be needing the salt and shovels.

Saint, I don't know if you and the family are free the next day or so.. But if you are, get yourself to Buxton. I was there today and it was like Narnia.. Easily enough snow to make a snowman, even in the middle (Pavilion Gardens). 

Back on topic.. I agree with your point about model fatigue! At this stage I see little to be excited about. 

I wonder if we crossed paths, I was there today too, and it was just like you described! Absolutely magical place in the snow.

Also, please make one more post 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Going by both the GFS and it's baby brother model, is it me or we seem to be getting the perfect synoptic for July in the next seven days - the kind of set up that would become completely non existent come July when we need it the most!

You know it's grim when we start talking about July set-ups

PS: Out to +180 GFS 18Z is the same as the previous 5 runs. Just when you don't want it to be consistent, eh?

I was In Buxton today too today doing some snow tourism and shopping. I think the model output offers reasonable prospects of snow at 300m in the PM showers (Buxton is at 330 m a.s.l.)

Last evening here was like Narnia! The kids were too busy having a snowball fight with the other kids from the close, so I rustled up a snowman in about 2 mins using just the snow on my not-that-big front lawn - it was about 4' high (the snowman). Seriously, the snow was about 4-5cm deep at its max and, because it was fairly wet, was great for building snowballs.

We went from rain to sleet to huge flakes of wet snow to sticking to 4-5cm in under 2 hours, as heavy a snowfall as I've seen. As I said, the depressing bit came once the flakes got smaller and less torrential. The drip-drip started before the snow stopped, then it turned to drizzle. The temp never dropped back to freezing, then the 'wintry showers' this morning were of rain - and far more persistent than forecast.

Off to Chester tomorrow so won't get a chance to hit the Peak.

This is a new low - (no pun intended).

Have you been on the sauce? Even in the depths of zonal despair, no one brings the CFS out from it's cupboard surely

To try to curve back on topic, there is no sign of anything especially cold and sustained for 10 days plus IMO.

Perspective is everything. I last saw falling snow in March 2013 and lying snow in January 2013, and even then it wasn't very good snow for doing much with - the dry powdery kind. Had about 5 cm which lasted all of two days.

I simply accept that by and large British winters are a load of insert favourite expletive here broken only by occasional bright, frosty days, a scattering of interesting wind storms and, if you're really lucky, a decent fall of settling snow. I actually enjoyed last winter in terms of what I got to experience (though obviously it was terrible for a lot of other people).

Narrowing down to December, 2010 is the only example in a quarter of a century in which I have seen more than fleeting snowfall in that month. It really was something special.

January has delivered more often as you'd expect, but looking back through my records it turns out February has brought snowfall the most often, so it seems that down south, it really does pay to be patient.

Okay, expectations lowered for the sake of good health, cue sudden onset of exciting charts to drive everyone mad 

Weather type is often key. The Jan 87 episode buried Essex in convective snowfall but I know that many just had very cold dry conditions. Living where I do even now I would normally be looking east for anything exciting whereas you would not I imagine

With all due respect, Andy, it will be if you view it as black and white. The output compared to winter 2009-10, poor. Compared to last winter, better. It's degrees and not absolutes. 

The current output is not the best but it's better than some of the shockers from yesteryears. There are opportunities. 

Manchester 2m temps are not particular mild on the 0z run

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnmgeur.html

The Manchester ECM run is not mild apart from around New Year. 

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Manchester/long.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY DECEMBER 28TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE MONDAY DECEMBER 29TH 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A large and intense Winter High pressure area will slip slowly SE over the UK through today and tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and windy later this week and onward with rain or showers at times and snow on Northern hills.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow ridging North over the UK currently. it is then shown to subside SE later this week with a strong West to East zonal flow enabling the Jet stream to undulate slightly North and South from a position close to Southern Britain and Northern France over the rest of the period.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a cold High pressure area sinking away SE later this week taking it's frosty weather with it and replacing it with strengthening Westerly winds and a zonal pattern of spells of rain and strong winds alternating with colder, brighter conditions with showers, wintry on Northern hills. After a cold atrt normal temperatures look likely from the end of this week but a few colder incursions with wintry showers could affect Northern hills at times during the showery interludes beteen the rain bands.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run is very similar to the operational this morning except that it delays the worst of the wet and windy Westerly winds from reaching the South in a big way to the second week when all areas could see the risk of gales and heavy rain at times mixed with short colder weather with wintry showrs in the North.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also shows a strongly zonal pattern under westerly winds developing for the North by later this week and to all areas by next weekend with strong winds and rain at times for all through the second half of the period in average temperatures apart from brief colder interludes at times in the North.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles show strong support for a Westerly flow to dominate the UK from later this week. With Low pressure biased to lie to the North and High near the Azores Westerly winds, strong at times will follow their normal characteristics of spells of wind and rain for all with slightly colder and more showery interludes in between, these most prolific across the North.

UKMO UKMO shows the High pressure and attendant cold weather leaving the South Thursday into Friday with the less cold and unsettled weather under Westerly winds reaching all areas thereafter with rain at times though hints of a chilly WNW flow are shown for the weekend with showers, wintry in the North.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure moving SE over Southern Britain and NW Europe through the week followed by much stronger and milder SW to West winds with rain at times as troughs sink SE across Britain late in the week and into next weekend.

GEM GEM today also shows High pressure moving away SE later this week replacing the cold and frosty weather with more changeable conditions under Westerly winds as Low pressure crosses East to the North. Rain bands would be replaced by colder and showery conditions at times too with some wintry showers over the hills and it would steadily become very windy.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows High pressure sinking away through the week and setting up a Low to the North and High to the South scenario with the UK lying under stiff Westerly winds with troughs crossing through delivering rain at times.

ECM ECM this morning is rather different in that although the dispense of High pressure over Southern Britain is still shown the Westerly winds that follow are shown to include pulses of cold air from the NW within them. So spells of wind and rain yes but rather longer spells of colder polar maritime winds in between delivering sometimes wintry showers to all areas before another brief spell of wind and rain returns from the West to reignite the pattern.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows Low pressure to the North and High well to the SW the most likely scenario at Day 10. This would indicate a strong Westerly flow veering WNW at times with spells of rain mixed in with colder and wintry weather in places with snow and sleet showers blown across in strong polar zonal winds.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning remains strongly in flavour of Westerly winds over the period with spells of wind and rain alternating with colder periods with wintry showers as the flow tilts West or NW occasionally.

MY THOUGHTS This morning maintains the general theme of the weather becoming less cold later this week over all areas as the High over the UK sinks away to the SE and allows milder SW winds to take hold. From thereon all models show variations of a theme of these Westerly winds with a mixure of milder and wetter spells alternating with rather cold and showery periods when some wintry showers are still very likely over Northern hills. ECM is the most interesting in the latter regard as it shows more tilt to the Jet stream digging further South somewhat over nearby Europe at times and sending cold fronts deeper South and allowing many areas to be rather cold at times under a more NW or even North flow briefly. However, the ensemble data strongly suggests that there is no impending chance of anything from Europe developing anytine soon with a strong vortex remaining close to Greenland and Iceland for most if not all of the time continuing to throw spells of wet and windy weather across the UK in broadly Westerly winds so it remains for folks to look North for anything cold through the first half of January 2015 and while some Northern folks could fair quite well at times with a decent amount of snow at elevation for much of the UK south of the Midlands we remain on a waiting game to see anything in the way of snowfall this Winter.

The ECM ensembles for Reading show the effects of "cold" zonality is for the south.

Highs that are a couple of degrees down on what you'd expect, but still generally too mild for anything remotely wintry by day. There may be the odd frost at night.

The point is that it might as well be mild, if we are to be denied sustained cold and ice, regardless of whether we get any snow or not. Cold rain simply doesn't do it for me.  ;-)

I agree, Kevin. It's not the best winter model output we've ever seen for sure, but it's no worse than what we saw day after day, week after week for all of last winter.

I still think there could well be changes as we go towards the second half of the winter- we shall see.

Without sustained cold, it is so much bleuch!  This is where the hope lies down the line:

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=temps&alert=1&lng=eng

Let's see how the models start to perform over the next few days. It would be very nice if we could get to experience a decent cold period in January when the sun is still low in the sky.