Grads is being a pig about ECM images  so grugingly here is the meteociel 240hr chart.

Seems the OP is continuing the trend of the EPS, charts like this are very representative of the Pm based block. Obviously minus the ridiculously overblown depression that's about as convincing as Russel Brand on question time. 

GEFs Snow row piking up next Wednesdays fun and games quite nicely

Hoping for a trend to develop from this. Would be great for the central belt of england and wales.  (though potentially very disruptive)

You lot in the central belt have already had your snow!! :P

From these uppers...

To these 12 hours after..........

ecm extended ens becoming ever set on a sinking nw european trough. how far south it gets will dictate how widespread any snowfall will become. i would have thought the scots are in for a bit of a snowfest second half of the month though i dont have access to the clusters so no idea if we are more likely to see runners into the base of the trough or sliders running nw/se.

There's no denying that surface conditions will be pretty miserable for the far south very often during the coming 10 days, edging colder but not enough for snow.

Only if you get a real kick out of wild weather is this of much entertainment value... you can probably tell which side I'm on 

The GFS 18z keeps with the same general theme, a reasonable representation of the current consensus.

The GFSP 18z tries to follow the theme but is undone by the coincidence of a very progressive shortwave crossing the U.S. and a very progressive shortwave coming up to meet it in the NW North Atlantic... the trough struggles to slide south and only really sets up in the right way for it right out at day 16.

It shows how small features can make a mess of things, though it does take the combined effort of two in this case.

It'll be worth watching out for those two features on tomorrow's runs and how likely they are to combine in such a way.

Of the 12z runs, GEM had them almost phasing on day 9 but it's a messy affair so no strong trough pushing into Greenland.
ECM was only just bringing them together on day 10, positioning unfavourable for phasing.

The GFSP 12z didn't really have the U.S. feature so inconclusive. The GFS 12z phased them on day 9, while the 18z doesn't phase them at all.

So it seems a less progressive solution is the current consensus, but that could change for all we know.

For now, good night, and stay safe if you're in the firing line of tonight's ferocious storm.

Some eye catching ensembles kicking about in the 18Z - worth an eyebrow raising at least.

Trendsetter? We'll see (apologies MODs for the picture postings, just happened this once to illustrate vividly the cold options. Marked)?

Not a bad ens for IMBY 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=252&y=44&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

From Ian Fergalicious on NW- 

Quite conceivably. MOGREPS is particularly strong on the colder NW'ly signal towards same period and agreement on a generally colder theme is consistent across all output. How long this phase lasts is another matter, however (especially judging from yesterday's EC Monthly suite, but I've not yet seen if GloSea offers consensus).

Indeed. Summer 2014 was a diluted version of 2013 in many ways, decent but without the real heat. This winter is also following a similar but not identical pattern to 2013/14 and personally I'd be surprised if this pattern can deliver snow down here. The 'cold zonality' could bring snow events to northern regions and higher ground in central Britain at times, but more often than not this type of set-up doesn't deliver to most of the UK population.

I agree with all the posts here this morning.

Yes..it is similar to the 2014 pattern but less blocking towards the east is allowing low pressure into Scandinavia resulting in colder and wintry incursions to the north and west at times.

From a model perspective the GEFS are in remarkably good agreement for the period 192-240 hours with a cool/ cold NW'ly airflow bringing a breezy mixture of sunshine and showers, wintry in the north and possibly over the highest ground of the south giving way to a toppling ridge.

In the meantime there is a lot of weather in the form of extreme mildness, storm force winds, plummeting 850Hpa's in 12 hours, snow, hail, thunder, lightning and rain for the south.

Interesting times but undeniably disappointing from a southern coldie persective.

Hi everyone, this is my first post for a while so Happy New Year to all!  I am flying out from Bristol to Tenerife (hopefully) at 0630 next Thursday so I am anxiously watching this fearsome beast that has been lurking on the models at that timescale for about 4 days now. Not sure how the thresholds lie for flying in terms of windspeed and direction but this is certainly looking a threat as modelled by the GFS this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.gif

I also note the extended cold trough down through Iberia as modelled at 240 on the ECM. Probably wouldn't happen this way but I certainly wouldn't want those heights to extend even further South West and get cut off around the Canaries.  As modelled at this point I would actually do quite well out of it where we are staying on the South East coast with the winds would be backed somewhat from the prevailing North East. Quite an interesting chart this one in the wider field..... what would happen with the ridge starting to form around Nova Scotia?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Anyway.... enjoy what a appears to be a cooling trend medium term, My wife has dragged me away (kicking and screaming) as she must have some winter sun! hope I do not miss too much fun before our return at the end of January.

Seems that most of the models are in general agreement (taking into account the usual subtle differences amongst the different models) with a powerful low pressure system crossing eastwards right over the UK at around the 160 hours time frame.
  The GFSP actually picked up on this a few days ago, then relaxed the idea for a day or two but now decided to go for it anyway.

Now, where did I put those worry beads?

Although, that said, the difference between what is happening right now and in a week's time is by then, the Jet Stream is expected to be a little further south and not quite as intense (but still strong enough to wind up large low pressure systems if the phasing process is spot on).

Euros take the storm on a more northerly track unlike GFS.

GFSP continues to show what we want with a more amplified pattern. but it does seem Northern blocking is a distant dream than may only come in April!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015010900/gem-0-144.png?00

Looks like an Oct 87 style stingjet on GEM. Comes in sooner than other models

The rest of the run is also interesting with southerly tracking disrupting lows and the wretched Azores high recediing

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015010900/gem-0-240.png?00

that 2nd chart looks good, but the 850hpa temps look too high for widespread snow, don't you think?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015010900/gem-1-240.png?00

American cold doesn't seem quite as severe as last year IMO and finally we have the SST's off the coast of Alaska showing signs of the beginning of a cooling trend:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.1.8.2015.gif

This should all help with the upstream pattern.

Current model runs nothing to get excited about if you are in the South, plenty of interest North midlands northwards though - still some signs of something cooler around mid January and the precise details keep changing on each run, so may yet produce something of interest or a surprise snow event like boxing day evening.