HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY JANUARY 9TH 2015.

NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY JANUARY 10TH 2015 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Further vigorous depressions will move East to the North of Scotland sweeping another broad mild sector across the UK today and followed by an active and squally cold front moving SE across all areas tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable and often windy or even stormy and sometimes mild with rain at times. Possibly somewhat colder and drier at times later.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a very strong Jet Stream being maintained across the UK or just to the North in the short to mid term before it steadily weakens later as the result of a weakening vortex to the North of the UK.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational continues to show very disturbed weather with another surge of powerful Low pressure shown about 1 week from now with severe gales and heavy rain followed by cold and showery conditions with some snow in places especially but not exclusively across the North. Later in the run things show signs of settling down as High pressure moves in close to the South with quieter and drier weather at that point.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run is broadly similar in the first week with the same potent storm as the operational run shown to batter the UK 1 week from now with severe or storm force winds, heavy rain and some snow as cold air sweeps Southeast behind it. This depression marks the catalysts which brings about a change as building High pressure through the Atlantic brings cold North and then NE winds with snow showers for many for a time before a collapsing ridge across the UK brings a cold and frosty period followed by a reset pattern to wet, windy and milder conditions late in the period.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run too shows the powerful storm in a weeks time with it's attendant very wet and windy weather. the sequence thereafter is less dramatic from a wintry point of view bringing cold zonality with rain and sleet with snow showers at times most likely in often NW winds before something colder and still very unsettled sets up at the end of the run as Low pressure over the UK sinks SE.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a mixed viewpoint this morning with the main cluster supporting a strong rise of pressure from the SW towards Western Britain in two weeks time enhancing the risk of a Northerly flow with wintry showers across the UK. There is a more minimalistic support of 15% for a continuation of Low pressure to the North and High to the South continuing to drive the weather across the UK.

UKMO UKMO continues to project very little change in the weather pattern across the UK over the next 6 days. Therefore a continuation of spells of very mild and windy weather with rain and occasional short periods of cold and bright weather with wintry showers this still principally across the North.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows a continuing changeable theme surrounding two types of weather. One being mild, windy and occasionally wet weather and the other cold, windy and showery weather with some snow on hills across the North, the latter more likely later next week.

GEM GEM today aso shows a powerful storm system in the vicinity of the UK a week from now with gales and heavy rain. This model too shows a change behind this storm to much colder weather across the UK from a much more Southerly Jet flow and a lessening of the vortex's strength to the North. With Low pressure close to the South and cold air entrained across the UK snow or sleet will be commonplace within a very unsettled setup in 10 days time.

NAVGEM NAVGEM reflects no end to the Westerly flow either with often mild, wet and very windy conditions holding sway over the UK with short and colder periods with showers in between with little change in overall synoptics shown one week from now. It too shows another powerful storm system across the UK in a weeks time exacerbating the unsettled and stormy theme.

ECM ECM this morning also shows a lot of strong Westerly winds with spells of rain and showers to come for all especially across the North. As with all other models it too shows a major storm system later next week but holds it further NW and tempering itt's affects a way from Southernmost parts somewhat. Because of this too the resulting change after it's passage is also muted into a broef collapsing ridge with a cold and bright interlude giving way soon after to a return to Atlantic Westerlies.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a trough across western Europe which should bring the Uk a good chance of a chilly North or NW flow with wintry showers. Low pressure is also likely to lie to the NW and this could indicate a cold zonal pattern with the Low to the NW feeding the trough East of the UK and maintaining rather colder and unsettled weather across the UK.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning remains quite fluid but all models share in the theme of a deep Low later next week bringing a period of very volatile winds and rainfall and a possible change into something rather colder for a time on it's clearance East next weekend.

MY THOUGHTS I think the main talikng point within the output this morning is the overwhelming support for another very powerful storm system crossing the Atlantic to lie in the vicinity of the British Isles a week from now. Some output puts this alarmingly across the top of the UK with storm force winds and heavy rain giving rise to disruption for a time late next week while ECM shows a little more relief in holding it more towards the NW and away from at least Southernmost parts. Wherever, it ends up is deterministic on the events thereafter and all output shows variations on this, most of which at least hinge on a spell of rather colder weather as pressure builds North on it's wake across the Atlantic. Something of a Northerly or North-easterly is shown for a time at least from some output with a heady cocktail of wintry precipitation across the UK as a result. However, if ECM is to be believed such a change to colder weather would be very short lived as the traditional toppling ridge soon shows milder West winds back in soon after Day 10. The GFS Clusters go one step further with this build of pressure ending up in two weeks time with the main of the clusters supporting a build of pressure close to the West of the UK with a Northerly flow promoting some cold weather with scattered wintry showers in places. In Summary it does look that the long sustained period of strong Westerly winds fuelled by a strong Jet stream is showing signs of weakening late next week and beyond. As the models are likely to show many different options of how this break in the pattern is expected to unfold over the coming days we will have to see how things develop but I certainly wouldn't rule out a change to colder conditions across the UK to end the month possibly with some snowfall.

GEFS at 0h  broadly shows,at 240h Azores HP and jet to north pattern still largely in control.

By 384h (a very long way off) HP is in control, only 30% of ENS truly zonal ,with roughly 50  % of the ENS with HP positioned to deliver cold.Notably there are Scandi HP's,3 Greenland?icealnd and 4 over the UK.

In the shorter term the 6z GFSP shows 16C this evening in parts of England!

Huge difference between the N and S there and again, without wanting to seemingly trump up the MetO even further, it further demonstrates their very good monthly forecasts thus far, with terms such as mild or very mild, interspersed with colder, wintry showers, often very windy etc, etc.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

No sign of a change in the ECM ens. A few cold options but most go with zonal theme

Boom

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010906/gfsnh-0-144.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015010906/gfsnh-0-144.png?6

Parrallel takes it little more north

Yes, the change in uppers is quite dramatic from today to tomorrow

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010906/gfs-1-12.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010906/gfs-1-36.png?6

Standard toppler. Better than nothing I suppose

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015010906/gfsnh-0-192.png?6

Iceland seems to have upset the Parrallel run 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015010906/gfsnh-0-240.png?6

Have Arsenal just scored?

I wouldn't say zonal at all. After today, I wouldn't say mild either. Typical January weather for most.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html