Going by the latest Beeb forecast this storm is being massively over hyped by some. Looks like just a run of the mill winter storm.   50/60 mph gusts for most.

Ain't nobody got time for dat! 

It's still a long way off in forecasting terms though. Hopefully that's all it will be, but there is still potential for something a little more serious, and I guess that's what we're here for 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

I'll take my lead from the  Countryfile weather - it's close enough now  for them include any meaningful risk.

Given how much the media scrutinise the met office, why should anybody be surprised they are not hyping up this event yet? It's still 3 days off so they are not going to commit to a dramatic forecast when it isn't fully certain are they?

The model output suggests a potentially nasty storm, cant say I am seeing a 1 in 15 year event at the moment, but it's worth opening a thread about it.

Well the thread is 4 pages long so it was probably worth starting
I see what Nick is saying but about these storms more often than not being 'hyped' by forums but not the UKMO, but we can only go on what was and is being shown and for a few days this storm has been severe. It could still be - best not to be too confident on it just being a bog-standard low as it's still three days away.

Yep, upgrades can happen of course. Sheffield wasn't forecast 20cm of snow on Boxing Day after all, more like half that.

The hyping can be done by us and the tabloids 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

I don't recall seeing or reading any validated reports that said Sheffield got 8" of snow on Boxing Day? All the reports I read said around 4" 

Didn't somebody on here post a picture showing snow depth on a table in the Sheffield area, was around 20cm.

Yes, I certainly remember seeing on local news a depth of around 8 inches being reported in some higher areas of the Sheffield region.

Really? I stand corrected then. Just had a google and can only find reports of up to 4" from a local Sheffield rag. Maybe that's just in and around the city then

I know the Sheff Utd game was cancelled the day after because of 3" of snow on the pitch

Well I've just seen Countryfile and it looked no worse than a typical winter storm to me. In fact the wind over the next 24 hours looked stronger. I do realise that things could change but at the moment it doesn't look too bad.

I hope they are right as I'm not a big fan of violent gales.

scroll down for a picture

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/u10fvgptv#?fcTime=1421280000

4 consecutive days of weather warnings (a rare event IMBY) and 70mph plus currently on the Met Office forecast page for Thursday, clearly nothing to get interested in there.

Edit:

JMA offers this for Thursday early doors:

and the jet:

In terms of wind this storm is being down graded all the time, very much like the Boxing Day storm was, however, just like the Boxing Day low the one on Wednesday is being modelled ever south so now the potential for snow to the north of the system is very real.

Indeed, with colder air across the UK ahead of the system than was the case at Christmas I think the potential for a serious snow event somewhere over Northern England later on Wednesday is even more likely.

We will see, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Sheffield getting hit again with other northern areas joining in as well.

One to watch.

Andy

Hi there. The forecast you have linked to shows 70 mph+ gusts overnight tonight for the Dover area but only 41-42 mph gusts for Wednesday night into Thursday. Has the forecast changed? At the moment it looks like tonight will be the rough night!

Having skegged the GFS and GFSpara, not much change.

The low bombs west of the UK but crosses Scotland as a very deep feature c 940mb.

Wind augmentation quite apparent on what may be a fierce cold front which could be very interesting on the day. 

An important point and one well worth bearing in mind. The models won't have the resolution to model the front in that great a detail, meaning they're likely to underestimate the gusts on the front as it passes through.

As it is the Euro4 is showing gusts into the high 60s/ low 70s down here (and widely into the high 50s / low 60s across England and Wales), I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an extra 10MPH or so added on as that front passes over!

Agree with Darren and Dave here. Whilst the track and intensity of the parent low is now firming up, taking a field of 60mph gusts across on Weds/Thurs, the active CF needs attention for associated SLWs that could enhance the gusts to damaging level as it passes through.

I'm in our regional office in Canterbury at the moment - can anyone give me a rough guestimate on when the front will cross the county? Ta :-)

Certainly a very strong area of upper divergence being modelled over the UK as the frontal system moves through, no wonder it's looking so intense.

The last time I can recall one so active is just before Christmas in 2013. That one moved across quite slowly, bringing a long period of strong winds and heavy rain with a lot of surface water flooding following some 70 mm in the space of 24 hours or so.

This one doesn't look like dragging its heels so much - good for lower rain totals - but still substantial, 20-40 mm widely based on the MO.

Thanks Ian. Just working on rotas to see what cover we've got now. Much appreciated

Ian's timings are a fair estimate Budz. The troughs are rather complex in that the last CF looks like a sharp active front, but the previous pairing will be the rain bringers.
SLWs on the primary CF will be the morning risk - 5am - 8am for the SE as Ian says.
Then we have another general wind risk later Thurs pm.