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JACKO4EVER
15 January 2015 18:22:31

Ups and downs, wibbles and wobbles. All part and parcel of an impending UK cold spell.
There will be more fluctuations in coming runs, some good and some bad. Absolutely no point in taking any run or any model at face value - it's going to get colder. Some of us might get a decent snowfall. End of message.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


absolutely. And furthermore some of the ens I have seen today have been the coldest for almost 2 years. 


Sit back and relax. Some will see snow, some folk won't. 


And by the way- as you mostly know I don't particularly like the stuff anyway! 😀

SEMerc
15 January 2015 18:30:08

ECM T+144. Quite like that with the -6 uppers as the low comes through.

Gooner
15 January 2015 18:31:11

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011512/ECH1-144.GIF?15-0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011512/ECH0-144.GIF?15-0


Cold right across the UK, I'd be amazed if we didn't see snow from this set up, even south of the M4, or is it too far West


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
15 January 2015 18:32:29

A good chart close up at t72 ecm full of promise.


 



 

moomin75
15 January 2015 18:33:34


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011512/ECH1-144.GIF?15-0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011512/ECH0-144.GIF?15-0


Cold right across the UK, I'd be amazed if we didn't see snow from this set up, even south of the M4, or is it too far West


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Not so much too far west but too far south I'd say Marcus. Mainly dry but bitterly cold with perhaps some wintry showers in the wind.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
15 January 2015 18:33:54


ECM T+144. Quite like that with the -6 uppers as the low comes through.


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


Yes a rather nice ECM 12z run up to this point at least. That Low does look loaded with wintry goodness potential for many.


The Beast from the East
15 January 2015 18:38:30

oh dear ECM looks like its going to sink at 168


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
15 January 2015 18:39:04


 


Yes a rather nice ECM 12z run up to this point at least. That Low does look loaded with wintry goodness potential for many.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Not keen on ECM+168 - everything seems to be flattening out...


New world order coming.
SEMerc
15 January 2015 18:41:46

Yep, I have a bad feeling about what T+192 will show.

roger63
15 January 2015 18:43:08


 


Not keen on ECM+168 - everything seems to be flattening out...


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Spoilt by the Azores HP ridging NE.

SEMerc
15 January 2015 18:44:20

Coldish uppers (-4 to -6) hang on at T+192, but look north and the fat lady is clearing her throat. Oh dear.

The Beast from the East
15 January 2015 18:44:25

GFS control almost the same as ECM. Very quick collapse. Seems a new trend has emerged tonight.


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
SEMerc
15 January 2015 18:45:45

Yep, a collapse in Europe. Now where have we heard that before.

moomin75
15 January 2015 18:45:49
A definite new trend by the looks of it and could all be over before it really starts. Glad I have kept my glass half empty attitude.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
15 January 2015 18:46:11
Hi I'm so sorry for posting this in here if it needs to be moved please move to a different thread . I'm travelling over to Buxton from Manchester Monday evening could anyone please tell me if its due snow as I will be coming over the cat and fiddle ... If its going to be bad I would rather leave my journey to another time.
Thankyou and sorry to interrupt
Jessica
bledur
15 January 2015 18:46:34

 Getting colder, but then less so.


 Slideshow image

sandman
15 January 2015 18:48:01
Thank goodness someone is deleting knee-jerk posts. Really spoils the thread 😞
Sandy
Newark Notts
Snowedin3
15 January 2015 18:54:04

Hi I'm so sorry for posting this in here if it needs to be moved please move to a different thread . I'm travelling over to Buxton from Manchester Monday evening could anyone please tell me if its due snow as I will be coming over the cat and fiddle ... If its going to be bad I would rather leave my journey to another time.
Thankyou and sorry to interrupt
Jessica

Originally Posted by: jessica davies 


 


impossible to be accurate with a snow forecast at this range but I would hazard a guess that Buxton would be quite badly affected, tues/weds but as I said too far out to say, check back Sunday night, but even then things can change


Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
nsrobins
15 January 2015 18:54:30

Hi I'm so sorry for posting this in here if it needs to be moved please move to a different thread . I'm travelling over to Buxton from Manchester Monday evening could anyone please tell me if its due snow as I will be coming over the cat and fiddle ... If its going to be bad I would rather leave my journey to another time.
Thankyou and sorry to interrupt
Jessica

Originally Posted by: jessica davies 


You are probably best leaving it until Sat am when the broadcast forecasts - both local and national - will be able to put much more detail on conditions in The White Peak on Monday. It goes without saying if there is any snowfall to be found, it will find Buxton, one of he snowiest towns in England. As a rough summary there'll probably be lying snow around but not much falling from the sky at that time.


12Z ECM turns the screw on our patience once again. My advice would be to take what you get one day at a time.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Retron
15 January 2015 18:55:30

Thank goodness someone is deleting knee-jerk posts. Really spoils the thread :-(

Originally Posted by: sandman 


It does indeed - especially as nothing much has changed in my view. We still have a cold week to come and if we're having to look at day 8 or 9 for a breakdown, goodness me!


I've said it before and I'll say it again, please don't get overly hung up on operational runs. The ensembles are the way to go!


Leysdown, north Kent
CornishBlizzard
15 January 2015 18:55:50
It did snow in Cornwall this afternoon (not on the moors) so maybe anything could happen. I think a few will be surprised.

Andrew
Matty H
15 January 2015 18:56:02

Thank goodness someone is deleting knee-jerk posts. Really spoils the thread :-(

Originally Posted by: sandman 


Yep, and I'll continue to delete his posts whilst the theme carries on. 


 


Re the snow tomorrow night on GFS - absolutely nothing on the BBC forecast 


Polar Low
15 January 2015 18:58:07

cold looking jap run



Whether Idle
15 January 2015 18:58:21

This upcoming cold-cool spell has similarities of the one before Christmas with a toppling high, if the ECM is to be believed.


Colder than average with the chance of some snow, particularly in the north and with altitude.  The odd sleety shower around.  None of the output is showing deep cold, but it is showing something colder than we have been used to and the CET should take a hit.


WI


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gooner
15 January 2015 19:00:00

A definite new trend by the looks of it and could all be over before it really starts. Glad I have kept my glass half empty attitude.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


How do you manage to ever win a cricket match with such a positive outlook lol


the sinking is 7 days out , snow events before then and some very hard frosts, how is it finished before it starts??


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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