Our scottish contingent will like the look of the latest Euro 4:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/27/basis00/ukuk/weas/15012900_2700.gif

Looking at Wed-Fri for those along a line Bristol southward, where snow is most questionable:

Based on a consideration of the various models covering the period in enough detail, the situation tomorrow night looks likely to see showers streaming across from the WNW, but due to air with dew points of 1-2*C being brought across from the Atlantic, the majority of output keeps most of this precipitation as rain through to around 6am Thursday.

The exception is GFS, but it seems to underestimate the effect of the Atlantic on the dew points, which is a shame.

The high-res models do show the potential for the showers to fall as snow along a narrow line extending ESE from around Bristol, as this is on the boundary north of which the air has had to cross the width of Wales, the higher dew points being lost in the process.

6am to 12 noon on Thursday sees a brief window of opportunity for showers to turn to snow as the flow turns more to the NW... but of course this also cuts off the moisture source for those showers, so they will be fading away.

So the balance of probability suggests a night of rain showers, followed by a slight fall of snow in places Thursday morning if the precipitation holds together long enough, but with this not likely to settle.

Thursday night, there's a lot to suggest a line of convection or two moving through from the NW. Seems like a greater chance of that falling as snow at least somewhere in the region, but how far south that occurs is again very sensitive to the wind direction. In this case, the more north of westerly the better.

Briefly on the weekend, Sunday is indeed looking more interesting as an embedded trough is indicated to be moving down within the Arctic air, this time from close to due north so avoiding issues with dew points across the entire length of the UK. Precipitation rates look to be the key element for that one.

Excellent post again James, thanks.  By Thursday evening 850's are looking marginal so it is indeed a very small window even if precipitation is around and hasn't fizzled out.

After last winter when we didn't have a sniff of snow down south, when you look again at all the pararmeters that need to fall into place it really is a tough ask. When it is cold enough and 850's and dp's support snow for example there is no precipitation!!

Little change today, still cold with a risk of some snow until well into next week quite possibly.

P.s. you didn't upset me Mike.

GFS 6z following previous runs, a nice wedge of -8 850's running SE through sunday but dry as a bone!!

Will feel bitter though, guess what this is what Ian F was alluding to in his tweet.

Those who do get snow on Wed/Thu should see it hanging around for a while.

NMM showing a flake or two possible for the South in 'our window':

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015012700/nmm-1-57-0.png?27-06

Still very cold for the start of next week:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012706/gfs-1-186.png?6

Somewhere like the NYM could do very well from Saturday until Tuesday.

Cold and very frosty later next week with freezing fog given very light winds and clear sky's quite likely.

If we cannot get 3 foot of lying snow, freezing fog is a decent enough alternative. I love it when all the trees, shrubs, bushes and cobwebs are covered in filigree ice.

Certainly looking like a very snowy few days up here, we have still got the snow lying that fell 2 weeks ago!

They seem to be down at the moment. Someone is giving the machine a good kicking...

Regardless of you posting very lovely pics, you're now beginning to p*ss us snow-starved Sassenachs off

(   only kidding, matey)

The updated Euro 4 looks great for up North:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/27/basis06/ukuk/prty/15012818_2706.gif

Could be some large totals by Thursday morning:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/27/basis06/ukuk/weas/15012906_2706.gif

Let alone what falls on Thursday.

Work fine for me 

Shows how poor it is for snow in the south to in a northwesterly

Well you are in one of the few areas that will see snow from the NW and the N, can easily see a foot for you before the weekend.

When you say north, you mean Jockland and the far [sparsely-populated] north. I was excited for a moment!

Rain for the vast majority of the north-of-England population 

I must say, by Thursday morning when in theory we should be in peak snow time, it doesn't look so good:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/27/basis06/ukuk/prty/15012906_2706.gif

Still good for Scotland but patchy elsewhere.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012706/gensnh-0-1-162.png

Control in line with the Op.

The southern contigent will have to pray for a Scandi block to form later. Unless we get a polar low or some disturbances in the northerly, it doesnt look very snowy

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012706/gensnh-0-0-192.png

Plenty of cold air to tap into. Just depends on upstream developments and the northern jet to see whether pressure can build at a high enough latitude

Hi all,

Here's today's video update -

Cold And Wintry Weather Ahead;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Also with a look at situation in America (hopefully it won't annoy Sriram too much  )

i have found the euro4 very poor for precipitation forecasting. It didnt pick up the boxing day snow for here nor last weeks frontal snowfall and also underestimated the heavy snow showers in the days prior to last weeks event. 

Pretty convinced there will be heavy precipitation over western/central northern england on Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning. Whether it will be cold enough for low level snow is another matter. 

Not much to say on GFS 06Z this morning really. It doesn't look very favourable still for Friday and early Saturday, although there seems to be less PPN coming in over that period than on previous runs which might be of benefit to those wanting to hang onto any lying snow (bit windy though!).

Also I don't like those little lows with inconspicuous warm sectors that zip south in the N'ly airflow, as can be seen in the Irish Sea on Monday (156hr). I remember many of these in the more N'ly dominated winters of the early 00's (well N'lys seemed more frequent then anyway), and while I'm sure they're good for higher elevations, if the PPN from them so much as scraped lower lying land it seemed to almost always fall as rain, regardless of what the key indicators profile might have been implying at the time! I also seem to remember they often missed the west coast completely however, so I'll be hoping that this one drifts down a bit further out West on coming runs.

Apart from that, looking good! There's bound to be some decent falls somewhere even if where won't be clear until tomorrow arvo